Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

Fair point. What your take on Donuts list?

actually on that note um vote gnauga because fillerpost at day end and he contributed a nailincoffin vote with 6 hours left which is sort of just like a "well throw in towel rip scumbuddy"

Ebwop: and an about in there.

Another addendum to anyone wanting to claim 'i gunned for green i must be town': Seedy gunned for green and now she's dead. Why her and not you?

And now I need to run out for a few hours. Donutlist later.

@Blue: main reason is I'm still, sadly, a draw for votes that will allow scum to live another day. I forget who it was and what was said, have to check back, that saved my butt since I was so dead to rights last day but if I had been lynched, you'd be looking at two towns gone and scum reads being much harder to pin down. Seedy didn't have that issue. I know you'll no doubt not fully trust this, and I understand why, but you asked why Seedy and not me and IMHO, thats why I'm still alive.

We haven't lynched a protective role yet, so it's not unreasonable for Undercover to consider the odds of there being one and go for a safer night-kill. There's power roles still in play that don't have a huge sign for "doc me" over their heads.

Why pick seedy? I don't really know. Might have just been a shot in the dark, might have been because seedy was onto something.
(A couple of Seedy's recent posts:)

SpoilerShow

-#822-
If Truegreen is scum (they are) Schaz is unlikely to be Undercover.
"I agree that some of the people making claims right now are also some of the more scummy elements. but I'd prefer to try and catch them in lies than risk lynching power roles off the bat."
Gnauga is sorta warning bells

-#768-
There are legitimate reasons to suspect Schazer (but TG hit none of them)
Palamedes seems less suspicious because of the pie they threw at Sotek
Vote Eberron

'course, then we run into a buncha potential wine (but maybe mafia knows that we'll think that, so they flipped it so we'd think...) and it's not a very compelling argument. Another reason might be that Seedy was pretty spot-on with Truegreen, picking him out on largely based on scum tells, and that's kinda intimidating to Undercover. Of course, Truegreen wasn't really playing as cautiously as they could have.

actually on that note um vote gnauga because fillerpost at day end and he contributed a nailincoffin vote with 6 hours left which is sort of just like a "well throw in towel rip scumbuddy"

I was fillerposting because I was busy IRL but trying to be at least marginally helpful in-game given that I felt guilty about not really doing enough useful things D4, so I threw in a quick votal and a quick link to donut's cop-claim because nobody else was. Sorry.
Nail in coffin was on a whim. I was waiting around for any last reads or words people wanted to get in but it looked like folks were done and I've never hammered before! I don't really have a better reason than that.

Seedy has been brought back to life to replace bigro. That slot is no longer inactive.

i'm cop
not flavorclaim
cool

I get results in Fortune, Good or Bad.
It's all been "x brings Good Fortune"

That does NOT sound like 'nilla cop to me

also turned a lynch onto a scum
sorry about that next time we'll lynch the townie

All the more reason you should be dead by now if you're telling the truth

You even alluded to as much yourself

and if i die in the night, you'll know i'm town.

Nova, the only reason I believe donut is because they said they copped Slorange night two, and Garuru later said his see-all-role-actions power said that the cop investigated Slorange night two. I asked Garuru if his information was specifically that a town-aligned investigator checked out Slorange and they said yes.

I don't know if you trust Garuru, but if you do either donut is telling the truth or he made a false role claim that the real cop has decided not to contest.

I trust Garu but I don't trust that Fogel would wittingly design a combo like that without a catch

Scumcop has been mentioned

As it turns out, there /is/ a flavorcop in the game! I hinted at a possibly-scum investigative role waaaaaaay back (I don't know the alignment of the flavorcop, though). I mean, I hate to cast doubt in donut's claim, and I'm not exactly sure how a scum flavorcop, who did not target Slorange N2, somehow knew who the cop targeted. I think it would be best if Donut fully explained his role. Like, how does knowing one's fortune confirm they are town or scum? For the record, Donut is like 97% town to me.

Guys I'm not sure how much I should be revealing. Could we maybe reach a consensus on whether to Reveal More or Conceal More? Because I may have some juicy role related tidbits that could tip the balance against scum (remember how truegreen and Akumu being driven led to the conclusion that truegreen was scum?) But I might, in revealing, accidentally incriminate a town person. Or something. I mean, this is around the time in the game when claiming isn't so harmful anymore. I think.

For what my opinion's worth from my admittedly dubious position: Reveal the movements which seem antitown, so if there's a framer or compulsive deathbed-visiting role or something they're out in the open. You're currently a hard counter to fake claims (e.g. an attempt to claim doctor and draw the counterclaim) from scum, because unless they've got a role equivalent to yours to give them info from N2 they'll probably be risking their necks.

So: reveal obviously antitown shit like a framer; reveal night actions that we've already seen on townroles that've flipped

I hate to cast doubt in donut's claim, and I'm not exactly sure how a scum flavorcop, who did not target Slorange N2, somehow knew who the cop targeted.

Do you know for sure a good cop targeted Slorange, or did it just say 'cop?'

It said "cop". The flavor cop was described as a "flavor cop". I assumed the "cop" was intended to be a straightforward application of the role, as in someone who checks whether their target is town or scum, something that I can't imagine scum being, as of course they would know.

Ughhhh. I HATE letting people get away with a claim. I'm gonna sleep on it tho.

Alright, I know that a lot of people were talking about how they didn't like me for defending Truegreen yesterday, which is fair, but let's step back and examine that for a moment. If I was scum with Truegreen, then presumably I would have also already known for a fact that Donut, Akumu, and Ebberon were all town. And in that case, Donut hyper-defending the two of them while straight up refusing to give any reasoning for his reads at all becomes an almost absurdly obvious info-role claim. (As an aside, I did sort of suspect Donut of being cop for awhile yesterday, but ended up throwing that thought out because "no way could he possibly be that bad of a cop.)

Now, my question is, if I was scum with Truegreen, why in the world would I show up to defend him out of nowhere and then immediately start pressuring the exact people that would ensure an early Donut claim, and thus seal Truegreen's fate while simultaneously making myself look a lot worse?

As opposed to, say, continuing to lurk under the (true) excuse that I hadn't finished rereading yet, probably tossing a vote on Ebberon at the last minute, and then just quietly killing Donut in the night before he could claim? Hell, if Truegreen lived, he could have even been janitored/kidnapped instead.

Anyway, this is also another reason why I don't really suspect there of being any scum on the Donut wagon yesterday, (though Sotek, Pala, and Seedy were already doing a fine job of looking townish even before then), and another yet reason why I suspect that most/all of the non-Truegreen scum were lurking yesterday.
__________________________________

I finished re-reading last night, and my current reads list looks something like this:

SpoilerShow

Basically confirmed town:
Sotek
Donut
Ebberon

Probably town and not really interested in looking into further until the lurker crew has all mostly been dealt with:
Palamedes
Akumu
Nova
Garuru
Schazer - Remember yesterday when I said that Truegreen looked unaligned with both Schazer and Eberron? Still relevant.

Scummy/Neutral Lurker Crew:
Agent
Whimberel
Dalm
Gnauga
Bigro/Seedy

__________________________________

Which brings me to my final point, AgentBlue.

AgentBlue has been pretty much powerlurking throughout the entire game so far, only giving out the bare minimum of opinions to avoid having votes thrown their way. They don't post anything at all throughout the first half of Day 2, but are apparently still paying attention enough to the thread to respond within an hour of getting prodded by Schazer. I'm not exactly sure what to make of their one and only D3 post, where they call Truegreen town and Slorange/Schazer/Garuru as all 3rd party, but whatever it is I don't really like it.

And then they come in early today and start posting up a relative storm immediately after an incredibly talkative scum agent kicks the bucket. That's uh... kind of a textbook scumtell?

Anyways Agent, I know you just starting talking recently, but if you could keep doing that, that would be much appreciated. In fact if everyone in the orange section could share their opinions so far, especially about the other members of the orange group, that would be fantastic.

For now though,
Lynch AgentBlue.

Other interesting miscellaneous things I saw while re-reading:

Post #335: Truegreen really, really doesn't want us to start lynching lurkers. Hmm, I wonder why.

Beginning of Day 3: Solaris wants to lynch both Truegreen and Bigro at the start of the day. Would he have made this post if the two of them were both his scummates? Hard to say, but my gut says no.

Post #543: Garuru outs his info, and then Truegreen suddenly remembers that oh yeah, he totally got a pie last night that he'd forgotten to mention until now. This doesn't really look like a scum/scum interaction at all to me here, and makes me feel slightly better about Garuru.

I'm not a flavorcop. I'm a cop, but the /flavor/ for my investigations is in "good fortune" or "bad fortune", which mean "innocent" or "guilty".

hi cool.

I'm less communicado than normal right now sadly.

anyway donut's list is pretty good.

seedy needs to things for that slot. but uh for now how about vote: Whimbrel.

Arright upon careful reflection I've decided my dogmatic hatred of claims can wait while we prod some of these lurkers

They need to be either in the thread or in the dead

Vote Whimbrel since they've already got a bit of pressure on 'em

I'd like to point out that Coldblooded's argument regarding "green not wanting to lynch lurkers = lurkers is scum = Agen is scum" is flawed;

First of all since I'm not scum there isn't a statistical probability that everyone lurking is scum - meaning someone in that green list you so blithely dismiss as 'not worth investigating' more than likely is,

[1.5 - We started with 21. 14 are now alive. Of the 7 dead, 2 were scum, 2 were third parties, and 3 were town. You propose that over half of the 5 suspects on your list, myself included, have decided to play dead. I'm pretty sure there are easier ways to win. I wouldn't know.]

Secondly my lurking was based off a completely different motivation (saw smackdown for roleplaying, didn't feel like writing long boring posts like this one + lame-ass role), and

Thirdly, #728, a more recent post than the #335 you cite wherein green lashes out at lurkers.

Not to mention that you're parlaying your defence of green into proof of your innocence, whereas apparently my defence of him proves my guilt.

ô_ò

And then they come in early today and start posting up a relative storm immediately after an incredibly talkative scum agent kicks the bucket. That's uh... kind of a textbook scumtell?

So now if I keep talking/try to defend myself I'm obviously the new green, right? Or if I'm silent I'm obviously the new green, right? Nice Morton's fork you've got there.

- NOW BACK TO WHAT I SHOULD BE DOING INSTEAD OF SCREAMING OMGUS -

Donutlist:

Donut - Still feel like circumstances exist wherein you aren't a towncop, but so far I'll leave you be with a tentative Town read oh noes I'm obviously...typing this after the section below so I've mostly worked through all that sarcasm. Plus I approve of your voting choices.

Nova - Still kind of all over the place, but I can follow your reasoning including up to the fact that donut isn't dead.

too tired just typing words now

Kumu - This is the interesting part. Since Akumu has been gunning for eb, based on some pretty good reasoning (which I was actually going to support D4 but then got hit in the face with a university), I was ready to see eb as an Undercover role. But as Coldblooded says, eb's not likely to be Undercover since green flipped scum, so now it's time to find out whether Solly's playing us. Kumu, what do you think of eb given green's flip?

eberron - I'm feeling a little better about eb after reading back and getting more information. I'd like to hear what Akumu thinks about these new circumstances. Hopefully town

Sotek - I'm rehashing old ground here, but I feel like Sotek's serenity pie townread comes from only one source, and that's eberron. On the other hand, eb also had the divinity pie power, which led to the acceptance of that read. If eb is scum, then Sotek is too. Coalignment with eb.

Pala - I'm not sure. Got onto the eberron train D4 and defended green. Not that that means anything according to Coldblooded. Okay maybe I haven't worked through all the sarcasm yet. Nulltell so far. Guess that means I'm the new green or just a stupid bitch who can't see what's in front of her.

Garu - Do we have any evidence Garu is town, other than having an extremely town-helpful oneshot? I DON"T EVEN KNOW WHAT I'M SAYING ANYMORE

Whim - Could use a prodvote. I can't remember when she was last active but we haven't had that argument on lurkers in some time. Thankfully, our dear friend Coldblooded has raised it for us. Dare we say a Whim is a scum? She was cagey before disappearing off the face of the earth.

Agen - I is offended! Though not particularly surprised; I'd have voted me based on lurking time - but not on the again fallacious reasoning that lurkers are automatically scum, just the 'lurkers make game not fun'. I agree! Which is why I tried to stop lurking! But no! (see fork, Morton's above) I bet if I had to make a read on myself I'd be noncommittal, right?!

No seriously I'm a respected author of biographies

Dalm - Same for whim. I'm going to have to read back to find her posts and then work on an opinion later, I need to sleep. Guess my noncommittal stance on lurkers makes me the new green. [see (see fork, Morton's above) above]

Schaz - Interesting point. I wasn't unconvinced that Schaz and Slor weren't co-aligned, but skimming back later on I can see that Slor stopped being pally with Schaz and started campaigning against her (See #483). Since Slor flipped town, I would have placed Schaz as Undercov-

BUT WAIT

green said the same thing! Does that make me the new green? Or was green simply throwing someone under the bus? A Janitor, even a partial one, would have been a lot more useful to Undercover than a mook. Yet considering that Schaz voted green at the beginning of the day, and followed it up, I'd be hard-pressed to continue thinking that way. It's pretty far to go if you were trying to look innocent. On this evidence I'd give Schaz a Town read oh no i used the color green this obviously means i'm the new green

bigro - How does this slot work again? You can't lurk when there isn't anyone there. Isn't Seedy here? When did she get here?! Is she going to say anything, or should we just kill her? Guess we should give her a chance, but I'm going to treat her like any other lurker until she talks, which I'm hoping will be soon given her reasonable activity as Seedy 1.

Coldblooded - I'm still flipping back and forth between 'misguided town' and 'clever bastard'. Some things are...plausible.

#757: eberron scum, green town, schaz scum. Later on in #876 he backpedals once green flips, and claims that since green was scum, eberron town and schaz town. All very well and good; I'd have done the same, and I agree with the analysis. Yet let's not ignore the burning down of the 'green defense' brigade; that in itself stinks of entrapment. Plus, if you can hide under the excuse of reading back, so can I (also because it's true). This amount of aggression just doesn't make sense.

I'm going to side with donut and scum oops i went and omgus'd I'll look at it again when i'm more awake

Unvote: eberron
Vote: Coldblooded

I AM EATING MONEY

At this point I'm starting to find my words making less and less sense. Fuck you, mafia.

gnauga - literally too tired cover this later. not fully convinced of not-scumminess.

I'VE BEEN TYPING FOR TWO THREE FOUR FIVE SIX HOURS WHY AM I INVESTING MY TIME HERE IT'S ONE IN THE MORNING

oh my god we've gone two pages in a day and some people haven't posted/devoted their souls can we start screaming at them about how they're totally scum now too

I'M NEVER WRITING THIS LONG A POST EVER AGAIN

um palamedes threw the pie, not eb. that's why pala/sotek are clear.

Also the thing is a lot of active people are pied/garuru/me/my cop clears so lurkers are more likely to be scum.