Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

Solaris because that speednolynch was hella sketch from somebody who knows how to play and if you're voting me rn you should think so too for kinda the same reason

I wouldn't mind Lynching Nova today actually. He was vocally against the eberron lynch but hopped on anyways. Tsk tsk.

You guys are gonna crack up laughing when I flip

I'm still as bad at this game as ever if not worse

I only made that short post because I atleast didn't want to go two days without making a peep (f-u rl).

Slorange's reasons to me seem abit all over the map. Either he's being truthful and choice Cyber do to Cyber really acting scummy at the end of D1 or his lieing skills are really good and Cyber was the perfect target to cover his tracks.

I'm not really sure what to think of it right now other then agreeing that it seems odd to say using a one off early like this is silly right after using a one off himself. Gonna prob reread some of schazer's posts abit more.

Much Ado About Votals

Nova - 1 (icanhasdonut)
Granolaman - 1 (Sotek)
Slorange - 1 (Truegreen)

With 20 players alive and present, it takes 11 to lynch and six to soft lynch.
Deadline is Tuesday, April 1 at 11:59 PM.

okay I changed my mind, granola looks bad for protecting eberron still, but eberron looks way worse for trying *so hard* to cast doubt on Slorange, who ... actually has a pretty solid claim that explains last night's events nicely?

Vote: Eberron.

Oh come on, even Slorange himself introduced doubt towards his own statements. It's not solid it's more like Gelatin, plausible but far from definite.

and for that little statement of Ebberon? He hasn't even voted to lynch Slorange and besides I have been far more critical of Slorange, what's so important about Ebberon that you want them dead?

it's one thing to be critical, it's another to throw tiny little doubtbombs, NOT cast a vote (not casting a vote with doubts is a thing scum like to do, you know, because voting makes you look like someone who has opinions, and then you might seem wrong, and then ... I don't know. someone might call you wrong?) and just ... not do much.

Much Ado About Votals

Nova - 1 (icanhasdonut)
Granolaman - 1 (Sotek)
Slorange - 1 (Truegreen)

With 20 players alive and present, it takes 11 to lynch and six to soft lynch.
Deadline is Tuesday, April 1 at 11:59 PM.

Vote Solaris pls :c

Nah

vote Watts

Seriously though why?

By the by I'm still cool with lynching eberron (and Schazer's posts (at least, the ones I think eberron is talking about) are almost exclusively mechanical info and confusing back and forth, analyzing them is not going to yield anything fruitful, she basically said so herself.

What Palamedes said about me is pretty spot on. I don't have enough confidence in figuring out the interpersonal connivings if I don't have some idea of who's town and mafia. Thanks to Slorange's purported redirect, I don't even know if Cyber was town or scum!

Having said that....

Truegreen. What do you think of Eberron? What's your take on the voting that went down yesterday?

Seriously though why?

/rushes No Lynch "Oh btw here's some people I find suspicious, no time to say why!"

:I

I guess? It's pretty weird, Solaris what changed?

But that was actually D1 (why only mention that now) and it's not like your quote had much to do with it.

But that was actually D1 (why only mention that now) and it's not like your quote had much to do with it.

That quote was me wondering why my vote wasn't reflected in the votals and trying to get it fixed

And I mentioned it as soon as I was able - by the time I saw his posts the day was over

I can see little reason to reveal such a thing at least in such detail.

It's good not to let your opinion of me be affected by other people's descriptions of my typical play. However, I think I did say the reason I revealed my action despite little other tangible gain: if I hadn't, it would be a reasonable assumption that cyber95 was town. Mafia rarely dies night one, and all-but-never is janitored night one, so the victim would almost certainly be town (or at least not-mafia). This assumption would inform people's suspicions and beliefs, since much of scumhunting is seeing how people interacted and what the revealed alignments implies about the nature and meaning of those interactions. Had cyber NOT been janitored, I wouldn't have said anything, but I figured it was a bigger danger to the town to make faulty assumptions about who's who based on a belief that cyber was town than to reveal my hand and inform the scum of why their kill bounced last night.

That said, introducing doubt into one's own statements is often a pretty scummy thing to do (look how reasonable I'm being! Look how I don't tie myself to any one interpretation or definite course of events!), but... I just can't stop doing it. I almost listed like five reasons I might not want to reveal my flavor, two of which involved me being mafia. I... I have a problem.

Mirdini, Agent, Bigro, Seedy, and Solaris need to get their butts in here. Chwoka too, technically (I'm just looking at the Whoposteds and reminding all the active players that lurkers are a thing).

okay I changed my mind, granola looks bad for protecting eberron still, but eberron looks way worse for trying *so hard* to cast doubt on Slorange, who ... actually has a pretty solid claim that explains last night's events nicely?

Wasn't casting doubt. I honestly felt confused with how he worded everything at the time is all. If I was casting doubt I wouldn't make a weak post like that. Would rather have good reason to vote then vote willy-nilly, since D1 did not fair well for me.

So, having my back aside, I'm gonna Vote Green

The more I read his posts, the more it seems like he's working on deflecting towards the stronger players like slorange. I do worry about the chance of a cull the strong, control the weak move. So unless Slo is scum and played off a scum one-off based on his track record with mafia to cover (by quite a play i will admit) I dont have any concern with Slorange. Green however seems pretty set on not trusting him.

And of course I get other posts while I'm making mine. Still stand by my thoughts though

Truegreen. What do you think of Eberron? What's your take on the voting that went down yesterday?

Hmm, looking back on it, Eberron made a few mistakes at the start. Kept trying to take back actions and was generally wishy washy in my opinion. Eberron gathered too much negative attention and as the votes mounted up the movements began to form. One side shouting for no lynch and another side shooting for Eberron as they had the highest number of votes against them. Simply it was a conflict between Lynch and No Lynch with several early votes casting bad light on Eberron especially with Akuma claiming that a lynch was necessary to have a chance at thwarting the mafia.

Alright, so:

-If you thought the lynch was unwarranted, who on the wagon would you consider worthy of suspicion/interrogation?
-If you thought the lynch should've happened, who do you suspect of being Eberron's accomplices? Who do you think was trying to prevent Eberron from getting lynched?

Also, random lynches are not better than no lynches. The whole POINT of "always lynching" is for the information.

No, the point is killing scum, and the fact that with an odd number of living players lynching wrong has the same effect on number of mislynches as not lynching at all.

No, look. The point of lynching is killing scum. The point of the philosophy of 'always lynching' is that the only way the town can win a game without over-reliance on power roles is via the information gained from lynching. The whole reason this trend started is not because of mathematics, it's because if you start a day by going "let's not kill anyone" then people won't be put under pressure, won't be forced to give opinions, won't post thoughts that you can analyze later. The philosophy is not, as many seem to believe, in opposition to occasionally having a no lynch.
What happened yesterday with people genuinely pursuing suspects was far more informative than a day where we piled on a random player for no reason would have been. 'Always lynching' is about the interactions that happen between people when lynches are pursued, and having a random lynch would obviate that as it would be impossible to differentiate between people on their lynch wagon. All of them would seem to be voting merely 'because.' You need to pursue lynches based on discussions and scumminess, because in those scum and town will begin to behave differently.
Furthermore, your mathematics only account for a lynch and nightkill. There are scores of roles which will throw your calculations completely off. These equations are useful when you're getting close to mylo/lylo. They don't make sense to trot out on day one when you have no idea what the setup is even like.

I'm in favor of the 'always lynching' idea, but I don't like to see it being defended for ridiculous reasons that have nothing to do with why it was applied in the past.

Also, your habit of picking and choosing what to reply to in my posts is getting a little grating. I appreciate that it was right before the deadline and you couldn't type out an entire wall, but it makes me wonder why you chose to use that time to say THAT of all things. Your comment was related to the current situation, but it lacked urgency or a real sense that you're actually trying to accomplish ANY of the things you're advocating.

Vote: Akumu doot doot doot can you actually go and make a proper reply to my points now that you have the tiiiiiime?

p.s. Sotek is that weird defense of granola enough to convince you that Akumu Must Die So That We May Live? Are granola's vague motions at Akumu enough? I guess you're voting eberron so uh I'd be curious to see how you have that whole interaction triangle figgered.

Anyways, onto other players.
Schazer, why did you try for a speedlynch on cyber? That pretty obviously wasn't going to happen in the time we had left, and from my perspective it could be an excuse to not be on eberron's wagon while they die (while acting like you're trying to prevent it). I mean, maybe you'd generally be more subtle than that, but...

@Slorange: based on ~experience~, I think the mafia used their janitoring n1 to try and deny us as much info as they could, essentially turning today into a second day one. I think I've seen this tactic used before in the wake of no lynches? So, if anyone wants to continue the psych analysis line of thinking...(I was ready to call it sort of bunk until I got to your post, and now I have to rescind my comment and also give Schazer all my money)

@Truegreen: most of the time I see the type of ability Slorange claimed used it's night one. I think there's a specific reason for this, but I forget what it is. My point is it's not as odd as you seem to think? I think I've seen killnexuses before, too...basically I believe his claim, pending further information. I mean, it helps I wasn't exactly thinking him scum before either.
Btw Truegreen you really ought not to assume people are boys.
Anyways if you think he's scum and his claim is fake, then whose reactions to it do you find the most suspicious? Since some of them are going to be lyyyiiinnggg fake reactions. Acting it out, saying believable town lines, etc.

That said, I don't think Truegreen is scum. If they're scum and Slorange is scum, then bussing him out of nowhere like this makes little to no sense. If they're scum and Slorange is town, then Truegreen knows full well that what Slorange said is true. It doesn't seem like a typical newbie maf action...mafia are afraid to lie about things they know for fact, and they generally don't do it unless pressured or gambiting, all the more so if they're inexperienced.

By the way I'm not on spring break anymore so expect me to be EVEN LESS PRESENT. Yaaay!

Schazer, why did you try for a speedlynch on cyber? That pretty obviously wasn't going to happen in the time we had left, and from my perspective it could be an excuse to not be on eberron's wagon while they die (while acting like you're trying to prevent it). I mean, maybe you'd generally be more subtle than that, but...

I concede it could've looked like a ploy to give plausible deniability in the event Eberron got lynched and flipped town, and yeah it was poorly-timed, but (and you've only got my word here) Dayend blindsided me (literally an hour after my vote on Cyber, which was an hour before his post). I was expecting more time, but wanted to broadcast the following before dayend:

"heyo, other people on the Eberron wagon talked a lot today, and honestly they're all skeevy to some extent with the possible exception of Gnauga, but Cyber popped in out of nowhere and I don't want that to go unremarked-upon".

If I could control a must lynch vote at that point and had to choose between Cyber and Eberron, I would've slammed Cyber. Like I said, everyone else on the wagon was making me raise eyebrows, but Cyber was lurky and Eberron was active and on D1? I don't think it's fair to turn on someone, especially a newbie, for having a go and running their mouth off a bit. I mean, in the long-term talky scum are better for the town than lurky scum!

This'd be Present Me trying to hock more credit off to Past Me than that conniving minx deserves, but I wanted to bring Cyber's overall untownly behaviours to the attention of anybody with a night action who was evaluating targets. So I guess Slorange and I think on similar wavelengths, though on reflection I'm wondering why he cited Cyber's behaviour alone as the singular reason to Lightningrod him, rather than concurring with my read of him.

And like, what you say about a post-nolynch janitoring does make sense. It's giving me less to work with without knowing Cyber's identity, and Slorange makes a fair point that announcing that Cyber's not proven town is the kind of pro-town action that mafia would forego. Like, if Slorange were a mafia janitor, I guess there's some advantage in keeping hope alive that Cyber was scum, in the hope town would get complacent, but it's not worth sticking your neck out like Slorange done did.

Anyway the tl;dr is I tried a futile wagon because I thought Cyber needed looking at, and I'm constantly trying to care less about putting my vote in appears-to-be-scummy places. A vote seemed a louder "statement" than "Guys guys guys Cyber is a thing", so I voted. Sorry it's not much more complicated than that.

Vote: Akumu doot doot doot can you actually go and make a proper reply to my points now that you have the tiiiiiime?

Nah.

I wasn't defending Granola in any way, I was asking for more information from Sotek on their opinions to see if I agreed with them or not. As for all your other words to me, asked and answered, so I don't feel the need to answer them again.

Who am I voting for right now, Nova? Actually I think I've figured out what his deal is, but I need to compile more future data. I'm gonna hop back over to Vote: eberron for now just because dayum he's a talking point. If he's town, Schazer and Akumu look worse. If he's scum I could see Solaris being his scummate. Last time I saw them they were idly condemning everyone on the eberron wagon. You still think we're all terrible Sol?

I keep getting weird vibes about Slorange and his ability. Targeting cyber checks out, and if it was just a straight janitor kill Slorange couldn't've known how many other potential kills there'd be tonight. (my money's on 2.5 highest btw: 1 scum, 1 cautious vig, maybe 1 partial-SK) Still, that seems like a "use when threatened" kind of ability, not a "use immediately" one. I want to say that it's actually more likely a scum power.

But then there's Truegreen.

I don't even know anymore. Most likely lying-style scenario is that both Slorange and Green are scum with no day-chat. I'll probably get around to lynching one/both of you after the eberron debate and also bothering Chwoka when he gets back from vacation.

Alright, so:

-If you thought the lynch was unwarranted, who on the wagon would you consider worthy of suspicion/interrogation?
-If you thought the lynch should've happened, who do you suspect of being Eberron's accomplices? Who do you think was trying to prevent Eberron from getting lynched?

There were several suspicious characters in the Eberron conflict.

Akuma and Chowka set it off.
Though Chowka just seems to have done this out of a sense of chaos. Though that may be a front. Take into account that he quickly changed his vote when early impressions began to change.

Sotek and Granolaman however are my chief suspects. Akuma MAY be working with them. They began with Sotek voting for Granolaman and Granolaman voting for Akuma, but then focused on Eberron together. When people voting on Eberron came under suspicion they quickly changed back to their previous votes. This pattern seems a bit suspicious to me, perhaps a ploy to throw attention off them working together?

As for support, Garuru seems to be the most obvious suspect, though it is much more difficult to determine as you have to slog through several pages of text to get the full picture and there aren't any helpful 'Vote' statements to indicate which ones are relevant.