Re: Hamfia - DAY TWO - 404 HAM NOT FOUND
12-19-2011, 01:39 AM
How peculiar.
As Mirdini said, he was but one vote away from a lynch yesterday. Yet no scum took the opportunity to strike.
Why is this? There was little risk of retaliation. True, they would have been interrogated today, but were it not for Wheat's untimely demise, they could plausibly escape scrutiny for a day.
A few scenarios come to mind.
1. The entire scumteam was already on the Mirdini bandwagon.
This is incredibly risky, and carries little reward. It is the least likely scenario. The entire team rarely hops on the same wagon unless victory is near, especially if they're the only ones on there.
2. Mirdini is scum.
Marginally more likely than 1, but again: bringing a teammate one vote away from softlynch is incredibly risky. Especially on Day 1. If a townie hops on the wagon, you either have to let the lynch go through or scramble for an excuse to switch. It's far too easy for this to go wrong.
3. The remaining scum are incredibly cautious.
Even with a townie up for lynch, the nefarious villains thought being the one to bring him to softlynch was simply too dangerous. But why? The most likely reason I can think of is that they were trying to avoid Scenario 1 - that is, Solaris or Brian was scum and Scum Number 3 didn't want the whole team to be on that bandwagon. So they avoided casting that vote, despite the fact that they could easily have arranged a mislynch.
4. The remaining scum are lurking.
In short - they didn't cast a decisive vote on Mirdini because they hadn't been paying attention to the thread. In this case, someone who was lurking on Day 1 would be a prime suspect.
Given the information at hand, it seems warranted to Vote: Brian. If Wheat were the only scum on that bandwagon, it is far more likely that it would have been softhammered by another member. Besides, as noted earlier, he has not spoken up today. We should give him some more incentive.
I would also like Solaris to comment on why he left his vote on Mirdini for the entirety of yesterday.
As Mirdini said, he was but one vote away from a lynch yesterday. Yet no scum took the opportunity to strike.
Why is this? There was little risk of retaliation. True, they would have been interrogated today, but were it not for Wheat's untimely demise, they could plausibly escape scrutiny for a day.
A few scenarios come to mind.
1. The entire scumteam was already on the Mirdini bandwagon.
This is incredibly risky, and carries little reward. It is the least likely scenario. The entire team rarely hops on the same wagon unless victory is near, especially if they're the only ones on there.
2. Mirdini is scum.
Marginally more likely than 1, but again: bringing a teammate one vote away from softlynch is incredibly risky. Especially on Day 1. If a townie hops on the wagon, you either have to let the lynch go through or scramble for an excuse to switch. It's far too easy for this to go wrong.
3. The remaining scum are incredibly cautious.
Even with a townie up for lynch, the nefarious villains thought being the one to bring him to softlynch was simply too dangerous. But why? The most likely reason I can think of is that they were trying to avoid Scenario 1 - that is, Solaris or Brian was scum and Scum Number 3 didn't want the whole team to be on that bandwagon. So they avoided casting that vote, despite the fact that they could easily have arranged a mislynch.
4. The remaining scum are lurking.
In short - they didn't cast a decisive vote on Mirdini because they hadn't been paying attention to the thread. In this case, someone who was lurking on Day 1 would be a prime suspect.
Given the information at hand, it seems warranted to Vote: Brian. If Wheat were the only scum on that bandwagon, it is far more likely that it would have been softhammered by another member. Besides, as noted earlier, he has not spoken up today. We should give him some more incentive.
I would also like Solaris to comment on why he left his vote on Mirdini for the entirety of yesterday.
There's no reason for this | Or this | Death is inevitable | You can't challenge fate | The smallest change | I'm overwhelmed
I'm serious | It makes perfect sense | Easy as ABC! | I can't even explain it | Cleaning up someone else's mess
I suck | I rule | I've got it made | Really, I'm serious | This bugs me | It's all lies | I want to believe | Beauty is a curse
I'm serious | It makes perfect sense | Easy as ABC! | I can't even explain it | Cleaning up someone else's mess
I suck | I rule | I've got it made | Really, I'm serious | This bugs me | It's all lies | I want to believe | Beauty is a curse