Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

Aw fuckin' hell I had a really good analysis of D1/D2 going on and then I lost all of it.

I'm going to just summarize it really quick then delve into further detail regarding Interesting Things about D2:

Happiest with Slorange and Schazer so far on read, Schazer has very solid mechanical posts that actually tie in really well to suspicion of players and correctly puts mechanical scumreads on Truegreen, Granola, etc.. Slorange gets an A+ for that vanisher/nexusthing claim, which when partnered with an honest attempt to follow up and clear the confusion reads solid town to me. If anything, Slorange's explanation, I feel, is perfect setup for a scum honey pot - people can try and harp on Slorange's actions, but they make good mechanical sense and are partnered with an honest follow up. Considering that Slorange flipped town and Truegreen, the main Slorange lynch advocate in D2 ended up scum, this paints very good images of Slorange.

Eberron D1 near-lynch would've been really good for an info lynch, and then Solaris happened. That Solaris did that clearly screamed scum intervention, and having Eberron flip town later on makes me think Solaris did a suicidal gambit to delay the lynch of a townie. Why do this? I think the reason's twofold: to delay information gain for town, and to set up time to make false connections to help clear or implicate people after Solaris's death. As I feel finding scum is easier after one's outed and thus the playerbase can make an effort to tie a scum back to their teammates, Solaris may have pulled a suicidal gambit to help mislynches occur later in the gamespace and to help establish connections after Solaris's death.

Thought exercise of the day: consider re-evaluating reads assuming ties made from Solaris's actions are incorrect, see what comes up. I'll be doing this once I get to and past Solaris death.

Granola claims 3P bodystacker and gives up the ghost. What I think matters the most to look out for is how people handle lynching Granola. With a 3P claim, it can be really easy for scum to safely dogpile on a lynch that is pretty obvious and also aids scum down the road. What I'll be looking for are people who turn their blood rage on ensuring Granola's death, without giving any kind of credence to other reads. That's not to say people should consider other lynches, Granola deserves to be lynched or vigged - but it's not worth dropping all other pursuits for the low hanging fruit.

Slorange continues to rack up town points for focusing on issues other than Granola at hand, there's Pala's readwall at #375, hm.

The people I think who stand out most so far (up to #426) about my belief that scum would only focus on Granola seem to already have flipped scum.

Also started thinking of side-eyeing AgentBlue, check their flip, it's town. Oh hey it's miller.

Godfather/cop? Nightside 2? Who knows. Worth noting. No idea if that's been covered yet.

Now, I'm going to break here since an hour and a half of analysis would make anyone insane. I haven't much to tie back to the current game state, as it seems most notable interactions or tidbits I saw deal with people presently deceased, or their name is Schazer.

If I had to take an absolute shot in the dark RIGHT NOW as to who could be scum, I would probably say Sotek. This is a really weak read, however, and it's primarily supplemented by a few general things:

1. Three posts said by him after Granola's trueclaim (over a roughly two irl day period), none of which are really substantial (two directly related to wanting Granola to hang),
2. Rests steadily in a sea of neutral or light scum/town reads at this point in the game, which I feel with a lack of inactivity isn't exactly the best thing,
and 3. Sotek seems more talkative later in the game, but this could simply be a calendar issue. Increasing talkativeness towards endgame is something I consider a light scumtell, especially as it's very easy to coast on light activity until the eleventh hour, then deploy a full salvo of influence.

I could be wrong.

MORE SOON. Will probably do D3 through D5 next.

In the meantime, I'll be more than happy to go into further detail on anything that needs further elaboration. I had a lot written then I lost it, and I really don't feel like rewriting all of it out again (hence the abbreviated summary of D1 and part of D2 above).

Not to, like, be an ingrate or what have you but is that This Afternoon "soon" or Start of D9 "soon"

Because if there is enough of a case to jump on you or Gnauga over Pala, I'd prefer to not do it in the final 18 hours of D8.

... hm.

that's actually a pretty good post so far. :o

Palamedes and Nova's interactions on Copclaim Donut D4 read a lot like scum

ROFL DIDN'T HE LEAD A LYNCH ON A "CONFIRMED" TOWNIE THO

Not to, like, be an ingrate or what have you but is that This Afternoon "soon" or Start of D9 "soon"

Because if there is enough of a case to jump on you or Gnauga over Pala, I'd prefer to not do it in the final 18 hours of D8.

I'll do my absolute best to get through it all within the next 24 hours. Provided I'm reading the deadline correctly, I should be caught up with ample time left in D8 (more than 18 hours, that is.)

Oh is that my replacement up there whoops haha

k then good luck mi nombre

awkwaaaaaaard

Question for TehNovlotslot when you are caught up: Are you a survivor? Because looking at some of Nova's early posting I could tentatively get behind that, and it'd make Pala's claim to Gamestate Blame look shakier; so in my totally-biased opinion that might be something I'm down for.

hey nova did you replace out or are you still playing

also pilot I don't think scum stood to do anything but lose by solaris' lynch? they WERE busdriver after all, scum generally don't do suicidal and especially not if they're major prs. it's sort of a weird angle to take when a much simpler explanation is that they simply didn't have the energy to fight a lynch off.

hey nova did you replace out or are you still playing

Yeah no I'ma let Pilot take over. For some reason I didn't register that I would've been replaced after this long, AND didn't check my QT before posting. :'D But considering I've totally let the game get away from me, my comp's in the shop for about a week, and I think I'm developing carpal tunnel in my dominant hand, I'm in no condition to carry on. Sorry 'bout the confusion (and for being a dippin'-ass punk)

DON'T EDIT POSTS YOU'LL GET MODKILLED wait a minute.

Schazer: I think I have an answer to the reason for the game's state. I need to take a look at the D3-D5 range, and then I can attempt to affirm my theory.

Seedy: My logic for the possibility of a weird gambit stems from how oddly brazen that last-minute NL vote was. Reading it over again, perhaps it was an honest mistake and maybe I'm suspicious that any kind of crazy plan was an attempt at damage control. I might be deserving of a shave from Occam's Razor but I really doubt a slip like that would even happen naturally.

Iii think we need that post today. D:

hey gnauga, you did not make a case.

vote: Gnauga.

hey people

anyone

votes are important and at least say things aaaaa D:

I guess I could get behind some Gnauga pressure/maybe a lynch, though I'd vastly prefer Schazer/Pilot/Seedy (in about that order, though Pilot and seedy are more even).

If Gnauga is scum then I hate to admit it but Schazer is probably clear?

Gnauga town would make me want to go after her even more though.

Vote: Gnauga

Alright. Let's get back to the read.

Day Three opens up, there are no bodies to speak of. Cyber's back again, big surprise. Around this point I think it's pretty clear that Slorange was telling the whole truth, and the pie business that starts around this time puts the nail in that coffin.

Day 3's opening first tells me that Seedy II slot is probably town. Solaris throws a call for action in Truegreen's direction, then opts to take the lurker/low content poke approach. That's a weak bus onto Truegreen and then a relatively safe side option, which with additional knowledge added makes it look like general scum fake townhunting. More inclined to look at that spot as town, which makes me think bigro's questionable activity noted throughout might've been a result of player apathy and not scumtells.

Mirdini proceeds to bleed to death, and also takes the words right out of my mouth with #454 and summarizes it better than I could just above.

The majority of D3 now seems to be a lot going back and forth on suspicions for Solaris/Eberron/Garuru, and those results are pretty clear and easy. Not to concerned about picking out reads and trying to discern alignments since I've noticed a handful of neat tidbits here and there that should help clear up townreads/townfirms once I hit present day.

And now onto the pie business. Truegreen gets a pie and consumes it, and no visible effect happens. Solaris and Dini flip scum/town respectively, and on to D4.

Slorange is the piemaker, and that basically seals the deal with N1's strange kill-nexus shenanigans. Truegreen awakens covered in pie, and then Slorange graveslams Eberron with pie. I think Slorange, possibly thinking that Eberron was town and having confidence in the read, threw the informational pie at Eberron. So the nexus pie on N1, the flavormaking raspberry pie on N2, and perhaps the informational pie on N3? That leaves a fourth upcoming pie, though...

...Oh wait, three nights plus a free pie is four. Been doing so much integral math I forgot basic addition. Alright, nothing too confusing there.

#717 what. Having Sotek townfirmed really does throw a considerable wrench in my reads from the end of D2. Most I can really say right now with certainty is that Pala and Sotek are probably knowingly aligned at this point, and based on what I skipped from Pala's claim later on in the game, their roles are mechanically linked.

#777 going back to #664 - hey Donut, any interesting checks since that claim?

I really don't have much to say aside from D5 other than that revengekill was rather unfortunate, and props to Schazer for protecting Donut that night (I presume that's what went down anyway). gj bulletproof!Garuru.

Add Gnauga to the townfirm pile as well, it seems

And then Seedy as well. All caught up now!

Let's take a look at the list of players. I've gone ahead and color-coded the cop clears, our cop/doctor duo, and myself:

Schazer
Sotek
icanhasdonut
Akumu
Palamedes
Nova
Seedy II
Gnauga

This falls in line rather neatly with the current belief that there's two scum alive. I hate to shoot holes in this, but I don't think there's another third party at the moment. We know based on the 3P flips that even though Granola could recruit anyone at all, the numbers would be balanced anyway. 15/4/2 seems pretty reasonable, especially in a game that's mostly ruled by very weakish town power roles.

I also mentioned possibly knowing the reason for the gamestate: I was totally wrong. I misunderstood the definition of the gamestate, and the Thing I believed would account for it turned out to be another incorrect mechanical assumption on my end. That theory's totally out the window, which is probably a good thing as going into it prematurely would have been very unfortunate.

As for other reasons for the gamestate, my best guesses are:
> Another latent town power role that could misfire (see: Coldblooded's hidden kill)
> Possibility the setup has traitors within - maybe a Crooks Hollow III thing where there's three main mafia and two traitors? Could also throw a wrench in copchecks if traitors appear town until recruited
> Actual Survivor's about? I doubt this one

A central scumteam of janitor/busdriver/flavorcop is totally something I can get behind, as the presence of a handful of night action screwery and a lot of flavor-based mechanics give credence to that.

Pala was hunting for Sotek it seems. Hm. And he's a sort of one-way lover to Sotek?

Well, makes me feel better about my coalignment theory from way back.

n1 Akumu-inno
n6 gnauga-inno
n7 seedymk2-inno

I guess there's the possibility Donut's naive, because with all of these logical mechanical confirms and innocent checks, I find it hard to believe the last remaining people could be Pala and Sotek, especially with their roles.

Maybe one way to go about it would be to doctor-protect Palamedes and see if he survives when Sotek croaks? That wouldn't work but gah.

Godfather is probably among those quoted innocent checks above, and then if there's another person left it's either one of Pala/Sotek or another of those checks if Donut turns up naive or busdriving shenanigans put us in the wrong direction.

Akumu normal scum saved by busdrive / Godfather Gnauga 2k14?

Anyway, that's it for the catchup. Ask away if I missed anything or would like to see something else covered.

Wait Pilot when was Schazer townfirmed?

Actually now that I'm past hyperdrive reread mode and I'm thinking more lucidly, the more I believe in Akumu/Gnauga scumteam. It makes reasonable mechanical sense (cop, miller, godfather to complete the Unholy Trinity) and we don't know who Akumu was busdriven with N1, nor is there any evidence to possibly solve that mystery.

Going to go ahead and Vote: Gnauga. Should put 'em at H-2, which I feel is worthwhile pressure and any attempts to force a lynch will be clear as crystal (and would be dumb for scum to do as it's only possible MYLO and there's not a 100% win chance for scum).

Wait Pilot when was Schazer townfirmed?

Schazer's got the doctor claim, so I'm going with that.

(I don't think I ever said Schazer was explicitly townfirmed? Probably close to it at this point though.)

Actually now that I'm past hyperdrive reread mode and I'm thinking more lucidly, the more I believe in Akumu/Gnauga scumteam. It makes reasonable mechanical sense (cop, miller, godfather to complete the Unholy Trinity) and we don't know who Akumu was busdriven with N1, nor is there any evidence to possibly solve that mystery.

The clear on Akumu is a combination of the N1 Donut copcheck and Garuru's D3 Power Play oneshot superwatchering, which showed that Akumu was busdriven with Truegreen N2. Unless you can think of a good reason that a busdriver would drive two of his scumbuds in lieu of two unaligned players (to be taken with a pinch of salt because they could've been paranoid about a SK/Vig, because of Slorange obfuscating the N1 kill(s)), I think he's clear?

Okay wow I keep mixing up the nights actions occurred on.

I still think Gnauga is a worthwhile pressure/lynch target, and I stand by that read.

I believe the way we stand right now is:
Akumu is cleared by the scum busdriving, since it's nonsensical to busdrive two scum.
Gnauga, Nova(Pilot), Seedy2, and Sotek are all copped in some manner; one is possibly/likely a godfather (or traitor)
Palamedes and Schazer are not cleared in any mechanical way.
Donut could hypothetically have been bluffing innocent checks this whole time, but I don't think anybody's up for lynching the cop for no good reason right now.

Schazer has a pretty convincing and comprehensive claim by virtue of what appears to be a total (or near total) info dump. I mean, it's plausible Schazer could have wrote the whole thing from scratch being the competent person she is, but given how hard she's been swinging town, I want to believe her.

The Pala-Sotek dynamic seems to be tentatively confirmed? Just to be clear, what's your final verdict on the Pala claim? Still, that doesn't explain the gamestate. In the worst case with lovers, we start at 8(6town,2scum) see two lovers killed and one townie killed, and end at 5(3town,2scum) which is LYLO, not overrun. But the pie all the way back when does add up. It would be hella risky for scum to throw a pro-town pie at fellow scum, not knowing what it did.

There's still a survivor here who should be pushing for a mislynch, unless they've developed some massive crush on Schazer. Not that the survivor would be able to say that if they did, because then scum would invariably murder them, which is the implicit threat that is mandated by basic game theory. Survivor doesn't know who scum are, though, so they're most likely still just posting to survive and to ensure a lynch (scumlynch or mislynch) happens by day-end. So even if we knew who the survivor was, we shouldn't lynch them. Does that sound right?

Nova/Pilot and Bigro/Seedy2 don't have such great info, which is possibly related to the fact that both have been replaced for inactivity. Everyone with alibis seems to add up to my (admittedly low standards of) satisfaction. Nova flipped out on donut's reveal to try to have the cop lynched, then scum declined to nk any cop-clears until Nova was cleared. I don't know Nova's playstyle as scum, but that seems like a move way ballsier than scum would be, followed up by a casual cursory attempt at framing Nova. I don't have the time to power-review everyone's postings right now, so I guess I'd have to go with Seedy by process of elimination?
vote:seedy

hrghhgrhb

i am not sure about sanity anymore

pilot had a very nice post about stuff and i am just going to assume that all of my checks are irrelevant unless i get a guilty
which hopefully after today only one person can give
vote gnauga

Getting Close Now Votals

Gnauga - 4 (Sotek, Palamedes, TehPilot, icanhasdonut)
seedy - 1 (Gnauga)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch. There is no more soft lynch.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 4th at 11:59 Mountain time.