RE: One Night Werewolf - Round Two - Day i
05-23-2014, 05:29 PM
Okay, vote aside, let me get back to logic-ing this out.
Slorange: Claims Mason, no partner
Donut: Claims Troublemaker who switched Slorange and Chwoka
SeaWyrm: Claims Seer who checked Chwoka and found him to be minion
Schazer: Claims Seer, no direct claim on target
Garuru: Claims Doppelganger, claims copy on SeaWyrm who was Seer, claims to have checked Schazer and found her as a wolf
Gnauga: Claims Seer who checked unused cards 2 and 3 and found them to be Hunter and Werewolf
Palamedes: Claims drunk who (according to Gnauga) picked Hunter card
Granola: Claims Robber who robbed me and found Insomniac
Chwoka: Claims to have been wolf, hasn't named a partner (but Gnauga's check suggests there might have been only one)
Me: Claims Insomniac who woke up as a Robber
Okay, that's everyone.
With three claimed Seers, at most one of them is telling the truth. So let's try this out.
-Schazer: I don't think she is, due to not doing anything other than voting and only claiming Seer after Garuru's check. If her vote on Donut was based on a Seer check, then we'd need SeaWyrm, Gnauga, Donut, Chwoka, and Garuru to all be lying. That would require two wolves, a tanner, a minion, and an antitown doppelganger. On top of that, it would require Troublemaker to be unused, though Donut could have taken a gamble on that lie.
So it's slightly possible but would require a lot of things to line up. Let's look at the other two.
-SeaWyrm: If this is true, well, Chwoka was minion and now Slorange is and we're going to lose. Chwoka's countered this, and I can't see why he would lie about that unless he doesn't quite believe he's lost his antitown alignment... unless he was minion and knew Slorange was a wolf. Then voting Slorange would be a win.
We can't just vote Schazer in this case, though, because Garuru might still be an antitown doppelganger who copied a wolf and went for Schazer arbitrarily: in this scenario, she's probably tanner.
People who would have to be lying in this scenario: Slorange, Chwoka, possibly Garuru, Gnauga, Schazer.
-Gnauga: In this scenario, Pala's a drunk who either became a hunter or a wolf lying about being a hunter. SeaWyrm's a wolf or minion? Garuru definitely copied someone anti-town. Schazer's probably tanner. Chwoka should be telling the truth unless he was confused. You know what, this really does seem to make the most sense.
Okay, yeah, I say we lynch Pala and if he's actually hunter he shoots Slorange. The scenarios where Gnauga is lying are a lot more complicated and seem less likely.
Slorange: Claims Mason, no partner
Donut: Claims Troublemaker who switched Slorange and Chwoka
SeaWyrm: Claims Seer who checked Chwoka and found him to be minion
Schazer: Claims Seer, no direct claim on target
Garuru: Claims Doppelganger, claims copy on SeaWyrm who was Seer, claims to have checked Schazer and found her as a wolf
Gnauga: Claims Seer who checked unused cards 2 and 3 and found them to be Hunter and Werewolf
Palamedes: Claims drunk who (according to Gnauga) picked Hunter card
Granola: Claims Robber who robbed me and found Insomniac
Chwoka: Claims to have been wolf, hasn't named a partner (but Gnauga's check suggests there might have been only one)
Me: Claims Insomniac who woke up as a Robber
Okay, that's everyone.
With three claimed Seers, at most one of them is telling the truth. So let's try this out.
-Schazer: I don't think she is, due to not doing anything other than voting and only claiming Seer after Garuru's check. If her vote on Donut was based on a Seer check, then we'd need SeaWyrm, Gnauga, Donut, Chwoka, and Garuru to all be lying. That would require two wolves, a tanner, a minion, and an antitown doppelganger. On top of that, it would require Troublemaker to be unused, though Donut could have taken a gamble on that lie.
So it's slightly possible but would require a lot of things to line up. Let's look at the other two.
-SeaWyrm: If this is true, well, Chwoka was minion and now Slorange is and we're going to lose. Chwoka's countered this, and I can't see why he would lie about that unless he doesn't quite believe he's lost his antitown alignment... unless he was minion and knew Slorange was a wolf. Then voting Slorange would be a win.
We can't just vote Schazer in this case, though, because Garuru might still be an antitown doppelganger who copied a wolf and went for Schazer arbitrarily: in this scenario, she's probably tanner.
People who would have to be lying in this scenario: Slorange, Chwoka, possibly Garuru, Gnauga, Schazer.
-Gnauga: In this scenario, Pala's a drunk who either became a hunter or a wolf lying about being a hunter. SeaWyrm's a wolf or minion? Garuru definitely copied someone anti-town. Schazer's probably tanner. Chwoka should be telling the truth unless he was confused. You know what, this really does seem to make the most sense.
Okay, yeah, I say we lynch Pala and if he's actually hunter he shoots Slorange. The scenarios where Gnauga is lying are a lot more complicated and seem less likely.
There's no reason for this | Or this | Death is inevitable | You can't challenge fate | The smallest change | I'm overwhelmed
I'm serious | It makes perfect sense | Easy as ABC! | I can't even explain it | Cleaning up someone else's mess
I suck | I rule | I've got it made | Really, I'm serious | This bugs me | It's all lies | I want to believe | Beauty is a curse
I'm serious | It makes perfect sense | Easy as ABC! | I can't even explain it | Cleaning up someone else's mess
I suck | I rule | I've got it made | Really, I'm serious | This bugs me | It's all lies | I want to believe | Beauty is a curse