Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

EBWOP: Donut you seem suspicious, but I still believe you[/joke]

pala what I'm saying is that if you and gnauga are both honest then Fogel would have announced this cagey gamestate shit YESTERDAY.

like, I guess there's no real point hiding it?

Schazer guessed correctly: I am a lover.

To not-pala.

With modfirmation at gamestart that my lover is town.

do the math: if pala and gnauga are both telling the truth, we were in a cagey weirdo mylo state YESTERDAY.

so one of them is lying.

Sotek, I presume your lover situation is mutual and knowing (not one-way?)

yes, mutual and knowing. and nobody who hasn't claimed a role should ask questions about it today because I would like to have a chance of keeping said lover secret so that they don't get shot, since I assume Schazer can't protect me AND said lover.

Okay.

Something tells me having a lover pair alive and a survivor explains why town could awaken to neck-deep shit on D9. Lover deaths and survivor siding with scum would spell doom.

To that extent, I have slightly elevated faith in Gnauga's claim. Palamedes might be a lover-searcher role, based on how he apparently found Sotek and that was part of his role. This late in the game with numbers that don't line up to both Pala and Gnagua being honest and survivor plus lovers possibly causing this gamestate...

Vote: Palamedes is what I'm getting out of all of this.

Less Than 12 Hours To Go Votals

Gnauga - 3 (Palamedes, seedy, Sotek)
seedy - 1 (Gnauga)
Palamedes - 2 (icanhasdonut, TehPilot)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch. There is no more soft lynch.
Deadline is Wednesday, June 4th at 11:59 Mountain time - that's TODAY, at midnight my time, roughly 11.5 hours from now.

like I said: Exactly one of Pala/Gnauga is scum, the other is telling the truth. uh, maybe unless there's only one scum left? hmmm.

Fogel: I switched my vote to Gnauga.

Fixed that up, that's what I get for updating votals in a rush.

I'll be gone this afternoon, but if people desperately want to ask any mod-questions before settling their votes, I should be back long before deadline.

Wait what even the hell?

What even the hell this game.

Sotek you realize that you've basically confirmed that scum should shoot Pilot, seedy, or Akumu right?

pala: yeah I know.

and they know who in that set isn't scum.

but uh, this is ok. if we lynch scum today, we're FINE - giant bodypile in the night, followed by some easy town choices?

and if we lynch a survivor-gnauga, we get a less-giant bodypile, followed by more easy town choices.

you know if we lynch pala today we get a less giant bodypile followed by more actual info on who's scum and who's not

yeah but if gnauga is survivor we're fine to lynch him, if he's scum we're still fine to lynch him.

meanwhile if pala is town I think we might not be fine to lynch *him*.

I also think it's safe to assume we have at least two scum still alive, as I did the math with town, scum, and 3P lynches with 5/2/1 and 6/1/1 town/maf/3P worlds (assuming worst case scenario aka lovers die) and it looks like with 5/2/1 a town lynch would land us in a survivor-aided overrun, while every other scenario in both worlds would only land us in LYLO at worst.

SpoilerShow

5/2/1
Town mislynch; 4/2/1
Lovers die: 2/2/1 (town loss w/ survivor helping scum)

5/2/1
Scum lynch; 5/1/1
Lovers die: 3/1/1 (potential loss with survivor-aided overrun)

5/2/1
Survivor lynch: 5/2/0
Lovers die: 3/2/0 (LYLO)


6/1/1
Town mislynch, 5/1/1
Lovers die; 3/1/1 (potential loss with survivor-aided overrun)

6/1/1
Scum lynch (Town/Survivor win)

6/1/1
Survivor lynch: 6/1/0
Lovers die: 4/1/0 (safe world for town)

Confirming what Sotek's saying: Gnauga is a safe lynch, Pala's a riskier one.

Either way, we're really only in risk of losing the game in a two-scum world, so I think we're in a world with at least two mafia left. And that world is inherently more dangerous for town.

Unvote

Anyone else want to get a word in edgewise before I tip the scales well towards a Gnauga lynch?

EBWOP: in the 5/2/1 scum lynch world, the end result should be potential LYLO if survivor helps scum, not potential loss. Same with 6/1/1 town lynch world.

hrghsrhgsh fine i'll lynch gnauga today
lynch pala tomorrow when/if I die
does anyone need anything or can me and pilo do the hammer thing

I have one more power role that'll probably be useful tonighttonight. If nothing else, I can eat a night kill instead of schazer/donut/sotek

sure you do

Someone should definitely be able to figure it out, but I'm gonna hope scum don't or it might ruin its usefulness.

Slash they might kill me over lovers

don't worry if you're not lying you have a fairly good chance of a halfwin
vote gnauga
will not be on for the night

Okay one specific person should be able to figure it out and why it's probably very useful for the night.

Who is that one specific person and why should they vouch for you?

It's more of a "it would be ironic if they didn't figure this out." Saying who might make it too obvious, if it isn't already.

I don't know if they'd publicly vouch for me, but I'm hoping one benefit of the doubt would keep me not lynched. Might be too late for that, though.