The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

Gonna Unvote now that Sai responded. And yes, I am very new to this. I had no idea what your acronyms meant a page or two ago.

@Numbers. Maybe Sai is hinting at something happening if LegendaryQ and Granola met each other. There is some hint nuggets ™ in some people's flavor stuff in the role pms.

As a minor side note this kinda makes me feel Sai and Pharmacy is aligned?

Coming to their defense like that when they're using flavor as their argument feels really weak to me. Again, yes, I know, Day 1, so we have nearly nothing to go on but... still.

Point is if either of these two flip town or scum I want someone to look into this a bit

@Numbers. Maybe Sai is hinting at something happening if LegendaryQ and Granola met each other. There is some hint nuggets ™ in some people's flavor stuff in the role pms.

As a minor side note this kinda makes me feel Sai and Pharmacy is aligned?

Coming to their defense like that when they're using flavor as their argument feels really weak to me. Again, yes, I know, Day 1, so we have nearly nothing to go on but... still.

Point is if either of these two flip town or scum I want someone to look into this a bit

I actually disagree with this. Defending town is one of the easiest things for scum to do because they know they're town. My being cleared shouldn't clear Pharms even a little.

Bleaugh stop having good points. (Don't stop, it's fine.)

BUT HEY, IF YOU FLIP SCUM THOUGH...

[quote="LegendaryQ" pid='217565' dateline='1534990169']

- Thoughts on Numbers in general? (newbie town or perhaps something else, or too early to tell, or....?)

The fact that Granola picked on you, for instance, and straight up ignored numbers mattered more to me than the fact that numbers' post was basically a worse version of yours.

And yes, this was interesting. To be honest, I was kind of expecting to get at least one or two votes from my pressuring when I saw everyone disappointed and disapproving of both me and Q's pressuring. Maybe it was because it seemed I already had enough votes, maybe because the long post gathered more attention.

Sai, your return was well worth the wait.

I don't follow why you are voting for Schazer though? Could you explain it to me, and also why you think they would be a better lynch than LegendaryQ?

Hey, catching up. I'm making this as I go.

I think LegendaryQ and Granola aren't partnered

What makes you think that so early?

But I also kind of want to bring attention to this! Because yeah, that's a weird thing to say as early as page 3!

So lets clarify, Vote: Sai, what do you mean by this? Does 'not partnered' mean non-aligned or something? What's the logic here?

Not partnered means not knowing that they are teammates, yeah, and I think that's the easiest thing to try to get a read on early as opposed to actually Town v Mafia. It's just based on how Q replied to Granola's vote, and it's the sort of thing I try to look for in general. It's not a strong read, just the only content that I had that was actually mafia related by that point.

Yeah can you explain the actual reasoning because all this is saying is "a thing happened"

[quote="LegendaryQ" pid='217565' dateline='1534990169']

- Thoughts on Numbers in general? (newbie town or perhaps something else, or too early to tell, or....?)

The fact that Granola picked on you, for instance, and straight up ignored numbers mattered more to me than the fact that numbers' post was basically a worse version of yours.

And yes, this was interesting. To be honest, I was kind of expecting to get at least one or two votes from my pressuring when I saw everyone disappointed and disapproving of both me and Q's pressuring. Maybe it was because it seemed I already had enough votes, maybe because the long post gathered more attention.

I honestly think it's just that people are holding you to a lower standard, but it matters to me whether or not they say that or give any other reasoning (like, oh, I found this post of theirs to be townie so we can excuse it).

Sai, your return was well worth the wait.

I don't follow why you are voting for Schazer though? Could you explain it to me, and also why you think they would be a better lynch than LegendaryQ?

I think that Schazer was aggressively nonproductive and tried to remain content free long after it was appropriate. I think that asking to be shot was abnormal. I think that it's actually kinda weird that people would post that they'd want to shoot her, but not also vote for her.

I'd actually be okay with lynching Q too, but I think that pressuring a potential lynch on Schazer now would tell us more than just adding another vote on Q would.

Yeah can you explain the actual reasoning because all this is saying is "a thing happened"

I think Granola's reply to Q reads as natural, and that teammates don't tend to post very naturally to each other.

Sorry, I meant Q's reply to Granola

And yes, this was interesting. To be honest, I was kind of expecting to get at least one or two votes from my pressuring when I saw everyone disappointed and disapproving of both me and Q's pressuring. Maybe it was because it seemed I already had enough votes, maybe because the long post gathered more attention.

The disapproval is that the pressuring looked less like pressuring and more bandwagoning on what scum could see as a low information mislynch. You have the excuse of not knowing better, but since I've been around longer, I guess people are thinking maybe I should know better or whatever and that thus the scuminess is more likely? I'm okay with lynching a lurker, and I was content where the Reyweld thing was at. Either/or, gameplay-wise I still consider the result of it a beneficial thing.

I'm pretty anti-day 1 lynch honestly. It feels like the information gained is pretty negligible?? Unless you actually hit scum or maybe a third party, but I believe in accurately assessing who that could be outside of random chance with just psychological profiling and no concrete or even claimed information to go on is dubious at best. I don't think day one discussion is bad and the early theorycrafting is helpful.... once there's like literally anything to compare it to????

I think Granola's reply to Q reads as natural, and that teammates don't tend to post very naturally to each other.

Why?

I'm pretty anti-day 1 lynch honestly. It feels like the information gained is pretty negligible?? Unless you actually hit scum or maybe a third party, but I believe in accurately assessing who that could be outside of random chance with just psychological profiling and no concrete or even claimed information to go on is dubious at best. I don't think day one discussion is bad and the early theorycrafting is helpful.... once there's like literally anything to compare it to????

I've been in games with scum pinned so hard day one through psychological profiling that they conceded; not every game goes that well but anyone who says that day one nothing useful can get done is wrong or lying.

I'm pretty anti-day 1 lynch honestly. It feels like the information gained is pretty negligible?? Unless you actually hit scum or maybe a third party, but I believe in accurately assessing who that could be outside of random chance with just psychological profiling and no concrete or even claimed information to go on is dubious at best. I don't think day one discussion is bad and the early theorycrafting is helpful.... once there's like literally anything to compare it to????

I feel like it's never really been about nailing scum/anti-town on day one. It's all based on how people react to the bandwagons and the reads and whatnot. Even if we blast a townie on day one, their flip can help influence what they said on that day and give us information on who wanted their lynch, you know?

It's why I'm against a lynch on Schazer right now/day one, because all they've really contributed is garbage and anyone who has said/lynching against Schazer is for the reason of "they're just saying garbage"

and that's kinda the some of most fruitless information we can glean from that

I'm pretty anti-day 1 lynch honestly. It feels like the information gained is pretty negligible?? Unless you actually hit scum or maybe a third party, but I believe in accurately assessing who that could be outside of random chance with just psychological profiling and no concrete or even claimed information to go on is dubious at best. I don't think day one discussion is bad and the early theorycrafting is helpful.... once there's like literally anything to compare it to????

Hunting for mafia is literally just based on psychological profiling. Role stuff just goes on top of this. The lynch is both the town's best source of information in that it's a public cop, and its most reliable weapon since barring a vigilante it's how, y'know, scum actually dies. More importantly, having a lynch shows us more about how people are interacting with each other. eg, seeing who seemed to 'know' that someone was town, or became emphatically in favor of a lynch after it was already assured, etc.

I think Granola's reply to Q reads as natural, and that teammates don't tend to post very naturally to each other.

Why?

Call it gut. There was enough random stuff to respond to that he could have chosen a different post to address when making his random-post. It's based less on them being clearly opposed so much as that if they were on a team, Q would be much more likely to ignore Granola and he had no reason to seek proactively try to include teammates yet.

lurkers are just a problem no matter what you do with them

anyways Airey’s and Schazer’s avatars are too visually similar and it’s making it hard to skim the thread to find posts. I think we should hold a special election to force one of them to change

I'm Certified Part Of The Problem™ and I second this motion

@Sai:

Thoughts on my earlier reyweld thing from these?

I meant that adding to another bandwagon would be a bad scum tactic, yes.

If their goal was to avoid attention D1 they could have just Not Done That without any sort of risk. If their goal was to further a D1 lynch, they would have picked either of the two wagons with 3 votes.

Palamedes, CB, Blazer opinions on this?

I'm reading it kind of like, town blind? This feels a bit too hardheaded and ignores obvious scenarios that scum would be more conscious of before they'd say anything.


Reyweld you got an opinion on schazers first vote on seedy?

Reywald feels very blind at the moment to me as well, if that's what you wanted to comment on.

So they feel okay I guess. No strong opinion on it though yet.

I mean more like scum is more conscious/worried about a teammate getting wagoned day one and reywelds plowing right past that possibility

I don't think scum has that hole in their perspective

I'll Vote Sai as well, cause I agree that making it more threatening will make them speak.

I like this post less than Q's, so I'm curious about why Nola picked Q just after that.
Do you just expect more out of Q?

Pretty much that. All else being equal I'll vote the more experienced player on the off-chance it's just newbie fumbling, but I coulda gone either way with those votes.

I'm Certified Part Of The Problem™ and I second this motion

Hi. Have you caught up with the actual infiltrator-hunting posts?

@Sai:

Thoughts on my earlier reyweld thing from these?

When you say 'town blind' did you mean 'townie because they're blind to things' or 'leaning town but, I'm still blind to their orientation?' I also lean town on Rey because I think that they're both proactively engaged and I think that their reasoning in the post you quoted was actually, well, reasoned as to 'why would someone do this' rather than 'should I or should I not try to get this duder lynched.'

I don't necessarily follow what you were saying, though. If you were saying scum wouldn't want one of their own to be wagoned who wasn't currently being voted for, then it doesn't really help them much to try to make yet another divergent wagon more viable rather than encourage one of the already larger ones.

Or, actually, I think I get it now. You're saying that Reyweld not factoring in the possibility that one of the two existing wagons was already scum and that numbers would have wanted to divert the lynch from a potential teammate is something that only town would do, because scum would be more conscientious about the possibility of diverting a lynch from a teammate, right? I don't actually agree with the reasoning (if that is the argument), because scum could also just as easily know that both wagons are town and therefore not think of that as being a reason to try to push another lynch.

I'm Certified Part Of The Problem™ and I second this motion

Hi. Have you caught up with the actual infiltrator-hunting posts?

I think I know the answer to this question.

I dunno, unless a pack of tragically-underinformed townies* push for what's sure to be a mislynch on D1 (cuz none of today's wagon-approximate targets have struck me as being blatantly obvious scum) aren't we all just prodding at each other seeing if anyone's fool enough to crack this early waiting for an actual flip?


*I say with decent confidence, cuz if we had an actual D1 lynch on our hands (given the current state of things where nobody's reallly looking like a valid target) I'm p. sure scum wouldn't be ballsy enough to stick a vote on it

Or, actually, I think I get it now. You're saying that Reyweld not factoring in the possibility that one of the two existing wagons was already scum and that numbers would have wanted to divert the lynch from a potential teammate is something that only town would do, because scum would be more conscientious about the possibility of diverting a lynch from a teammate, right? I don't actually agree with the reasoning (if that is the argument), because scum could also just as easily know that both wagons are town and therefore not think of that as being a reason to try to push another lynch.

I think scum's more cautious about things that are easy enough to think twice on, especially when they get asked about it and given a chance to clarify, town's more likely to blank

What's your feel on coldblooded 93?

That said, I don't see numbers as particularly noteable. Why would you point out them versus Acionyx or Airey?

I'm not sure why you picked out Acio and Airey in particular, but both of them cast their votes super early before we had anything to go on, and have both at least been making token efforts at activity since then. It's not really the same thing at all? Honestly the people who look most similar to Numbers right now are probably Sai and RL, I just chose Numbers over the two of them because they were the only one who voted for someone I had a light townread on.

Where did the Numbers/Acio/Airey connection come from Reyweld?

Like. With soft lynch of 6, given the number of substantive contributators who've chimed in today I think a hypothetical Massive Target could actually be dragged into the Hammerzone and manage to do it without any scum being forced to put something concrete like a vote on the board.

What I'm saying is, before I pissed in some vinegar and dumped the resulting concoction into the wine of the situation, if I got given the 6+ Essential Measurements for a bespoke tailored D1 noose, I'd be pretty confident that the six seamstresses in question were all town and due to be the target of an undue amount of questioning come D2 for the general benefit of scum.

Six townfirms would own tho

No thanks.

no thanks because you think everyone will be like " yeah na" and lynch you instead or because you are scared to hit town and then get lynched for a bad call/suspected of scum?

right now i doubt we will hit hard lynch for d1 and the soft lynch will be the factor. it would be bad if we go without a lynch d1.

I'm a little surprised Airey didn't vote for Slorange here.

Honestly i almost did but i wanted to wait and hear his answer before i did or not.

I understand not liking d1 lynch because the odds of hitting town are to high and its not like anyone will scumslip this early. however the more information we have going into d2 the better. right now we also do not know night actions like if there is a vig or how many bodys can show up.

Also i like my spider avatar and it look nothing likes schazers bird thing.