The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

Anyway the thing that is lighting me up on seedy the most here is the hill she's chosen

There are alternative explanations for AC playing suicidally to my interpretation of an on death role (solaris offered this one), it's possible to disagree with what AC's behavior means (pilot offers this one)

Seedy's fighting the mechanical interpretation, she's conceding that I can be entirely right about what ac's behavior means here, but she's resisting the conclusion based on a premise that she hasn't supported yet (what scum can actually have) and claiming doubts about the ability to predict the setup (which has almost never been true)

She's trying to head off a mechanical confirm on an easy lynch. Stack that on with apparently having a hard reason to believe schazer is scum and then abandoning it in the face of the AC lynch


If AC is in fact town, does someone want to argue this is not incredibly scummy behavior?

I am not saying it’s a GOOD role. again I hate bringing up meta especially when mirdini is powerless to watch as I analyze his modding meta but if I recall correctly scum in quarantine DID have a quack doctor (that was only revealed when flipped)

there are reasons to put a role in that aren’t “this is good for this faction” such as:
-obfuscating “town roles” and “scum roles”
-iterating on a theme
-giving someone A Role makes them feel more special and involved
-Fun

also I did say that I think ac’s behavior has other explanations (and that I think it’s also weird that you’re so certain about them based on play that is vaguely suggestive at best), I’m just focusing on the mechanical part because it’s what boggles me the most about your interpretation

and I’ve never had a “hard reason” to believe schazer is scum, what

I am not saying it’s a GOOD role. again I hate bringing up meta especially when mirdini is powerless to watch as I analyze his modding meta but if I recall correctly scum in quarantine DID have a quack doctor (that was only revealed when flipped)

there are reasons to put a role in that aren’t “this is good for this faction” such as:
-obfuscating “town roles” and “scum roles”
-iterating on a theme
-giving someone A Role makes them feel more special and involved
-Fun

Wow look at these things that aren't actually an example. ~But the possibility exists!!~ is the last resort of someone who doesn't have a real reason to believe what they're saying

Atm I don't have any objections to AC beyond it feels too easy but I should actually read their posts first i guess

you did say this but I misread your later post as
“I thought ac was scum and that solaris and seedy vote is the only thing making me reconsider”
rather than what you actually meant, which was basically the opposite of that

so I’ll concede that you actually weren’t interested in/okay with the ac lynch like I thought you were. which makes me feel relieved at least because it makes your current behavior waaaaaay less wildly confusing now that I realize you’re not doing a 180

acio I wouldn’t even be this wordy about it if you weren’t framing it as a TOTAL CLEAR
bringing up other possibilities (and imo fairly likely ones) when someone else is insisting there’s only one version of the truth is...natural?

Hey nerds I just had an important setup realization that makes AC pretty super likely town based on behavior

Blazer's claimed DoB. I have a role that activates on death. AC is quite clearly smug because dying isn't actually a problem for them

Hope this helps.

I mean you’re not being COMPLETELY absolutist but you’re just so much more doggedly certain about this guess based on ac’s weird behavior and your ideas about how setups should be made than makes sense to me
I can’t help but contradict you when what you’re saying feels so off -_-

Possibilities don't mean shit unless there's a reason to believe them

Which seedy has not demonstrated

It's ~possible~ that AC Blazer Granola and jacq are the entire scumteam orchestrating a ridiculous staged argument hellbus but there's not a good reason to believe that's the case

The saner, more probable scum role is that upon death, the player chooses a target and their death flip is instead revealed as their target's role for like a day/night cycle a la Disguiser.

We've also got the "powers the player doesn't realize they have" theme cropping up so AC could be banking on having a lynchproof due to some flavor clue

not to get too deep into the meta of, comparing this game to the other one and such but

the thing about pharmacy as a tracker is that she also dropped on the same night that a role that exists to fuck up trackers flipped so while i dont think that "oh there was MORE to her role than that" i feel like actually, given the third party lyncher revengancer walrus and that the siren probably has some sort of thing about it that makes up for the whole like, having another role thats actively trying to kill them, that it is too early to say what tools the mafia does and does not have access too

The saner, more probable scum role is that upon death, the player chooses a target and their death flip is instead revealed as their target's role for like a day/night cycle a la Disguiser.

We've also got the "powers the player doesn't realize they have" theme cropping up so AC could be banking on having a lynchproof due to some flavor clue

not to get too deep into the meta of, comparing this game to the other one and such but

the thing about pharmacy as a tracker is that she also dropped on the same night that a role that exists to fuck up trackers flipped so while i dont think that "oh there was MORE to her role than that" i feel like actually, given the third party lyncher revengancer walrus and that the siren probably has some sort of thing about it that makes up for the whole like, having another role thats actively trying to kill them, that it is too early to say what tools the mafia does and does not have access too

Hi hey both of you. Do you disagree with the behavioral case here. Granola, whether or not you can successfully envision what would support the viewpoint is immaterial to the fact that seedy has not. Do you disagree?

Seedy's fighting the mechanical interpretation, she's conceding that I can be entirely right about what ac's behavior means here, but she's resisting the conclusion based on a premise that she hasn't supported yet (what scum can actually have) and claiming doubts about the ability to predict the setup (which has almost never been true)

hhhhh
I don’t know how else to explain “your arguments based on ac’s playstyle have not convinced me that ac has this kind of role, and even if they did that would not—by itself—convince me that they are town, and your arguments regarding mechanics have not convinced me that death role = town is the only possibility”
I’m getting sick of restating my points. I just don’t see why you think ac is “super likely town” based on literally anything that’s happened.

basically I don’t think your hunches about ac’s playstyle meaning death role are really good evidence, but I’m questioning your mechanical conclusions first because even if ac was somehow modconfirmed as a death role right now that still wouldn’t be enough for me to say “oh I guess they must be town”
so it’s the bigger stumbling block to me

"this guy is so stupid that he can't possibly be scum" is how I ROLL, you guys

on my phone right now but let me answer a few questions

@Coldblooded I entirely think that the argument of my township was still up in the air for a lot of people and there was a general consensus that "I would kill both but I can't decide" that I was seeing. Hindsight is 20/20 though and I guess I could have just... tried to get aC lynched then if they flipped town, I could claim Hunter the next day to try to avoid that double mislynch, misvengekill I was so afraid of and well now I'm just kinda staring at a wall feeling stupid but oh well

either i kill scum on my lynch, i kill town on lynch and unbungle a mess i caused, or people don't want to lynch me because of my reveal which possibly draws the mafia's fire at me and my (relatively) vanilla role are ALL good scenarios for me

@Jacq I was gonna shoot aC 100% of the time and I think they're 100% scum. I was trying to confirm my theory of "the fake roles that anti-town are given to claim as don't match up to their actual roles" thing sorry


Palamedes also brought up a point in their wall that makes me think, where people started defending me page 15-16. That's interesting if that's true (I can't be bothered checking right now- on phone) because around that time the Lynch was leaning towards aC. If scum started bussing aC and then started defending me, someone they knew who was town (and then highly confirmed after the lynch), it certainly makes me go "HMMMM"


I'll read into all this later today but yeah lil busy at the moment

I also don’t think that “ac has an on-death thing” is truly necessary to explain their behavior nor do I think it explains the way they’ve played perfectly
it would make some of it (mostly the resignation towards death) make more sense but I don’t understand why you find it so totally convincing

Seedy does not subscribe to the "AC has an on-death power" line of thinking here. I also think it's pragmatic to treat any "blank equals across the board townfirm" statements with a healthy amount of skepticism. You'd never be able to hunt down a godfather with that line of thinking. I have produced hypothetical roles that could disprove the thesis and so regardless of whether or not she subscribes to the line of thinking, I would argue that the skepticism is perfectly valid.

Hi hey both of you. Do you disagree with the behavioral case here. Granola, whether or not you can successfully envision what would support the viewpoint is immaterial to the fact that seedy has not. Do you disagree?

Seedy's fighting the mechanical interpretation, she's conceding that I can be entirely right about what ac's behavior means here, but she's resisting the conclusion based on a premise that she hasn't supported yet (what scum can actually have) and claiming doubts about the ability to predict the setup (which has almost never been true)

i feel like you and seedy crossed wires bc i dont know, what this actually means and doesnt, feel like whats happened here to me? but ive been very bad at interpreting specifically this whole conversation, and i think its because im tired, of it existing

Acio's argument boils down to "on-death = town" and posits that seedy is scum because while she doesn't believe AC has an on-death power, she's still contesting the axiom in the hopes of heading off future townfirms.

Is this an accurate summation Acio?

Hey everyone - I’m not sure exactly where this idea of “aC’s got a on-death role” originated from - possibly might have come from some reads that analyzed my later posts about being fine with getting lynched - but I’m going to clear this up.

I don’t have an on-death role, and I highly doubt I’ve got a “secret” on-death power either. Thank you

Hey everyone - I’m not sure exactly where this idea of “aC’s got a on-death role” originated from - possibly might have come from some reads that analyzed my later posts about being fine with getting lynched - but I’m going to clear this up.

I don’t have an on-death role, and I highly doubt I’ve got a “secret” on-death power either. Thank you

Rip the last page or so of back and forwarding

Acio's argument boils down to "on-death = town" and posits that seedy is scum because while she doesn't believe AC has an on-death power, she's still contesting the axiom in the hopes of heading off future townfirms.

Is this an accurate summation Acio?

No, her response indicates no disagreement with the line of thinking that AC has an on death role but contests that on death is a reason to believe them town

I asked several times for Seedy to offer an example of what exactly you could give scum that would make an on death role worthwhile and she did not answer that question, falling back to reasons as to why they could possibly exist.

Not having anything in mind initially or when prompted indicates she doesn't have a good reason to actually believe in it.

That it's the initial response is the telling thing; if "i don't think that necessarily explains his behavior" is an actual concern I don't think it gets left out when responding to the mechanical argument

Which is a pretty big thing when my earlier discussion of AC was in regards to behavioral options. I don't really like seedy's response to those either since they're in the same domain of "BUT MAYBE" but it's almost impossible to get town to stop doing that sort of thing.

But fighting assumptions that lead to mechanical confirms is absolutely in scum's wheelhouse since it's considerably harder to go ~but maybe~ if it reaches even a small consensus.

Rip the last page or so of back and forwarding

Hahaha, yeah I know, I felt kind of bad not being able to nip this in the bud earlier X)

So your main point of contention is #458 where she rejects your theory without explicitly stating that she doesn't think AC has on-death?

Anyone feel like aC really not giving a butt's ass about being at softlynch half this live long day is pretty good evidence that they're not scum?????

So your main point of contention is #458 where she rejects your theory without explicitly stating that she doesn't think AC has on-death?

And subsequently fails to come up with an answer to what exactly would fit that worldview

Anyone feel like aC really not giving a butt's ass about being at softlynch half this live long day is pretty good evidence that they're not scum?????

o/

@SAI

I think you're probably the only player in this game who actually speaks my language but you never seem to be in here at the same time i am, there a chance you can tell me when you've got an hour or two of time available to poke at the game?

I’m definitely not going to think ac is town on the presumption that they have a death power and the further presumption that death power = town.

I think this is a miscommunication situation. I think your parsing of this statement is technically correct but I think the redundant nature of the sentence indicates it's mistyped. I think she meant to say that she disagrees with both the presumption that AC has a death power and the presumption that death power=town and therefore doesn't agree with the conclusion that AC is mechanically town. She continues to restate these points throughout her subsequent posts.