Frozen Hearts Mafia [Family Ties - Mafia/Survivor Victory]

I'm not sure I buy situational bp. Because I'm also a situational bp.
Fact is, though, he killed scum. So uh.... Probably 3p? Would definitely fit in with other pilot games, which usually tote 2 3ps. (Garu and the arson)

<b>Votal 1.1</b>

Cat (3) (<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>, <font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>, <font color=green>Mirdini</font>)
<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (1) (<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>)
Granolaman (1) (Stiqqery)
<font color=green>Ginx-sama</font> (2) (Cat, Palamedes)
OzTheWizard (2) (Acionyx, Granolaman)
<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font> (2) (Schazer, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>)
Palamedes (2) (<font color=purple>speedchuck</font>, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>)
<font color=purple>speedchuck</font> (1) (Truegreen)

Abstaining (5) (Affle, OzTheWizard, ElectroMan, <font color=red>smash ball</font>, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)

---

<b>Votal 1.2</b>

Cat (1) (Palamedes)
<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (3) (<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>, Affle, Granolaman)
Granolaman (3) (Stiqqery, Schazer, <font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
<font color=green>Ginx-sama</font> (1) (Cat)
<font color=purple>speedchuck</font> (3) (Truegreen, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
<font color=blue>Garuru</font> (1) (<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (1) (Acionyx)
Palamedes (1) (OzTheWizard)
Affle (1) (<font color=green>Mirdini</font>)

No Lynch (1) (<font color=blue>Garuru</font>)

Abstaining (3) (ElectroMan, <font color=red>smash ball</font>, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)

---

<b>Votal 1.3</b>

<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (4) (<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>, Affle, Granolaman, Cat)
Granolaman (3) (Stiqqery, Schazer, <font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
<font color=purple>speedchuck</font> (1) (Truegreen)
<font color=blue>Garuru</font> (1) (<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (1) (Acionyx)
Palamedes (1) (OzTheWizard)
<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font> (2) (Palamedes, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (4) (<font color=blue>Garuru</font>, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>, <font color=green>Mirdini</font>, SupahKiven)

Abstaining (2) (<font color=red>smash ball</font>, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)

---

<b>Votal 1.4</b>

<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (2) (Granolaman, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>)
Granolaman (1) (Truegreen)
<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font> (2) (Palamedes, OzTheWizard)
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (1) (SupahKiven)
Cat (2) (Stiqqery, <font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
<font color=red>smash ball</font> (1) (<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>)
<font color=purple>speedchuck</font> (1) (<font color=green>makerofthegames</font>)
<font color=blue>Garuru</font> (2) (Acionyx, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
Affle (5) (<font color=green>Mirdini</font>, Schazer, <font color=red>smash ball</font>, Cat, <font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>)

Abstaining (2) (<font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>, Affle)

---

<b>Votal 1.5</b>

<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font> (7) (OzTheWizard, <font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>, <font color=green>Mirdini</font>, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>, Palamedes, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (6) (Granolaman, Affle, <font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>, <font color=red>smash ball</font>, Schazer, Acionyx)
Cat (2) (Stiqqery, <font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
Affle (1) (<font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)
Palamedes (1) (Cat)
Granolaman (1) (Truegreen)
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (1) (SupahKiven)

---

<b>Day One End</b>

<font color=green>Druplesnubb</font> (7) (OzTheWizard, <font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>, <font color=green>Mirdini</font>, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>, Palamedes, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>)
<font color=green>Mirdini</font> (6) (Granolaman, Affle, <font color=red>smash ball</font>, Schazer, Acionyx, <font color=green>Druplesnubb</font>)
Cat (2) (Stiqqery, <font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
Affle (1) (<font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)
Palamedes (1) (Cat)
Granolaman (1) (Truegreen)
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (1) (SupahKiven)

---

<b>Day Two End</b>

<font color=purple>speedchuck</font> (9) (<font color=blue>Garuru</font>, Granolaman, <font color=green>makerofthegames</font>, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>, <font color=green>Mirdini</font>, OzTheWizard, SupahKiven, Acionyx, <font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>)
Granolaman (1) (<font color=purple>speedchuck</font>)
Stiqqery (1) (Palamedes)
Palamedes (1) (Stiqqery)

Abstaining (5) (Affle, Truegreen, Schazer, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>, Cat)

---

<b>Votal 3.1</b>

Affle (1) (SupahKiven)
<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font> (5) (Granolaman, Palamedes, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>, Acionyx, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
Granolaman (1) (<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>)
Palamedes (1) (Cat)

Abstaining (6) (Affle, OzTheWizard, Truegreen, Stiqqery, Schazer, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)

---

<b>Day Three End</b>

Affle (1) (SupahKiven)
<font color=green>icanhasdonut</font> (8) (Granolaman, Palamedes, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>, Acionyx, <font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>, Stiqqery, <font color=green>icanhasdonut</font>, Affle)
Palamedes (1) (Cat)

Abstaining (4) (OzTheWizard, Truegreen, Schazer, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>)

---

<b>Votal 4.1</b>

Schazer (1) (<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font>)
OzTheWizard (1) (Palamedes)
Acionyx (2) (Granolaman, OzTheWizard)
Palamedes (1) (Acionyx)

Abstaining (8) (Affle, SupahKiven, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>, Truegreen, Stiqqery, Schazer, <font color=green>Ginx-sama</font>, Cat)

---

<b>Unofficial Votal 4.1.1</b>

SupahKiven (3) <font color=green>Eidolonic</font>, Acionyx, <font color=blue>Garuru</font>
Acionyx (2) (Granolaman, OzTheWizard)
Palamedes (2) (Mister Visceral, SupahKiven)
<font color=blue>Mister Visceral</font> (2) Palamedes, Stiqqery

Abstaining (4) (Affle, Truegreen, Schazer, Cat)

Oh.

Derp.

Whatever, just copy/paste that into your personal QT's for easier analysis.

There's very likely to be one scum between Oz and Pala?

And. I guess I wouldn't mind trying to hit that today.

I could see either one being reality, with probbbbbably Pala slightly more likely.

Can someone point out the Kiven stuff for me? I don't doubt there's a case there but I'm not quite seeing enough justification for jumping off of Acio who is still pinging me as lurkscum.

Yeah I'm still re-reading but would be ok with an Acionyx lynch tbh. It's hypocritical as heck but him lurking a game generally means he can't scumhunt?

Vote: Acionyx

So are we just ignoring that Acio claimed cop or what?

I mean apparently he has no checks, but still. Are people just assuming that was sarcasm/a joke?

If priest was a mechanical role claim I'm not sure what it is?

It's a joke from an off-site Tinyhunt.

I claimed Priest in the first post of the game, and got shot N1 for my troubles.

I may or may not have been the Priest. (It's still technically on-going, but eh)

https://www.fantasystrike.com/forums/ind...ndle.9545/

If you want to read through it and/or check for yourself. New Tinyhunt ruleset we're testing out. Couple role tweaks.

SpoilerShow

Been on airplanes all day, excuse scatterbrainedness

Kiven, and how he flipped from lynching Alfalfa dude to calling him town

Eido, you could have asked me. 0u0 I would have told you that it's because I wasn't aware that this was his first game and now that his activity has spiked, he's been seeming a lot better.

Burnt houses look like a marker type 3P thing to me. But why would you mark Acio? if he's town he's. Not super likely to live for long.

Ayyy, sorry, can't meta.

Moving on, due to recent developments, I can see Garuru as a 3p? Like, Vic is probably town (I said this, right?) and two situational bps seems... not right? Still want to lynch Palamedes, like, this kind of pinged weird to me:

Thirdly, there's the fact that scum has no reason to shoot Vic, there are tons of better targets.

Better targets? That seems like a pretty weird reason for why they wouldn't shoot him.

I like how the guy who went and shot scum and seems to only have a conditional kill makes sense as a third party more than the guy who's actually acting suspicious, defensive, and has done basically nothing for town.

Seriously this random sewing of suspicion towards Garuru for no other reason than Visceral is also a conditional bulletproof is awful.

Acio/Kiven/Visceral maybe?

EBWOP: Should have said 'makes sense as non-town', not third party.

Since, you know, Vic is probably scum.

Also @Kiven: Not really? Like why would you bother shooting a guy who a decent amount of people were suspicious with and who wasn't even around? Seems like a good reason to doubt a scum kill in his direction as any.

Eh.

Something had to happen to the night kill.

Garuru has already said his bulletproof was gone, so...

Unless you think Vic self-shot as scum, when his team was already in a hole, and the game was filled with scummyish lurkers to lynch... eh.

I think it's much more likely that one of you or Oz is scum than Vic.

Acio and Kiven are possible though!

You're kind of ignoring that the one time there are two night kills?

I feel that unless the suggestion is that scum have some sort of delayed kill for no reason (getting two kills every even day, or with Garuru getting to daykill if they don't kill the night before) then saying Vic is town because he survived a kill is kind of pointless?

I don't think he self shot, I think he was shot by another faction. Thought I made that clear.

There's also the point that if people think that Vic is town and Garuru is not they should seriously be considering him as scum instead of going 'oh he's third party we don't have to worry about him'.

Acio/kiven/visceral/eido scum team
Who else wants to defend me and join the scumteam?

It's not about defending you, it's about defending you with shitty, desperate reasoning.

Like maybe if you did stuff besides 'hey I was shot so I'm town right' and then attacking the people who don't buy it I'd have a reason to buy the idea of you (or them) being genuine.

The thing is, Pala, in a world in which Vic is Scum BP, (and that seems to be what you're assuming,) there must to be a killing role other than Garu (he would have claimed by now if he was responsible for shooting Vic.) The problem is that we've had two kills for just one night. Unless Pilot went crazy with protection in this setup that seems rather unlikely.

On that note, isn't it simpler to just assume that Vic is just lying about being shot at all? At this point you might as well claim that you shot him.

I'm more ready to assume that protection just got lucky twice in two days than I am the other options (scum delayed kills or Garuru!scum). We also have the fact that there are two conditional bulletproofs claimed right now. So yes, I am pretty certain we have three killing roles and that Vic is a scum bulletproof. Like unless someone can come up with something more sensible than 'Vic is town over Garuru just because I say so' then I'm pretty convinced that I'm right on this front?

Garuru if you are town and can shoot, kill Visceral.

Vote: Acio

I'd be perfectly fine voting Kiven except looking over things again I see how quickly Acio got ready to vote him with a 'fine I guess' which reminds me of what he did with the donut lynch.

I think they thought MV was a liability and faked a whiff kill, and therefore he is both scum and not a bulletproof.

SpoilerShow

Been on airplanes all day, excuse scatterbrainedness

Kiven, and how he flipped from lynching Alfalfa dude to calling him town

1. Eido, you could have asked me. 0u0 I would have told you that it's because I wasn't aware that this was his first game and now that his activity has spiked, he's been seeming a lot better.

Burnt houses look like a marker type 3P thing to me. But why would you mark Acio? if he's town he's. Not super likely to live for long.

2. Ayyy, sorry, can't meta.

Moving on, due to recent developments, I can see Garuru as a 3p? Like, Vic is probably town (I said this, right?) and two situational bps seems... not right? Still want to lynch Palamedes, like, this kind of pinged weird to me:

Thirdly, there's the fact that scum has no reason to shoot Vic, there are tons of better targets.

3. Better targets? That seems like a pretty weird reason for why they wouldn't shoot him.

1. This is believable but also really convenient.

2. Meta is basically "how does this person act when they are town? Are they acting differently? If yes, they are suspicious because something we don't know about is making them act differently." It's hardly foolproof but it narrows down some things.

3. What.

Okay, let me explain a little economics concept called opportunity costs.

Scum, by default, get one kill a night. This is important because it's their only tool other than mislynches, which are also important. They want to make sure that they kill people who are more threatening to them, because not all possible target are equally valuable to them.

So. Who is scum trying to kill?

Scum want to nightkill the following people:

Townfirms
People who are historically good at this game
People who are in good standing with town
People who look like they're catching on.

Scum do not want to nightkill the following people (while higher priority targets live):

People who are suspicious
People who are historically bad at this game
People who are inactive
People who are scum
People who are completely off the trail.

The main advantage scum has is that they essentially slowly make town more incompetent.

So, yes, as a matter of fact, "better targets" is literally the most logical possible reason to not nightkill someone.

Of course you'd know that, though, because you're probably inactive scum. With extremely bad MV defenses.

I think Acio is either scum or really off his game and I don't want either of those things to be true. I realize his reputation is massively overstated but even so he's active and dedicated and usually less disinterested than this.

Excuse me?

I'm never a liability to my scum team. Check my recent games as scum. I probably even would have been fine if you guys wouldn't have freaked out and hell bussed me in chemfia (seriously it was three of my teammates leading that lynch). Even if I'm bad at town, doesn't mean I'm bad at scum.

Even if that were true, there's no reason to do that so late in the game and with such an advantage. Town has had one scum flip so far and we haven't done so well with that. Scum doesn't need gambits like that right now.

Like you're fabricating this extremely unlikely situation just to push a lynch on me. That's what's scummy, and that's what's frustrating me.

If you're town and weren't just bullshitting something in that post to have a case on me, I'm kind of offended.

As much as I intensely dislike MV's play this game and would like him dead in some manner or another, I am willing to Vote SupahKiven.

I am willing to hedge my bets on a few things:

one of SupahKiven and Acionyx is scum.

If the above is true, scum has misdirected the lynch off of MV with distractions or claims of being town.

There is no reason currently for us to lynch Garuru right now, Our wincons probably coincide even if they are somehow a 3P.

There is scum between Oz and Palamedes.

Eidolonic is probably town.

I don't think Chemfia is a stunning example of anything. That game was a mess. An outlier.

Also admittedly I haven't been around for a long time but I wouldn't know if you're good as scum or not because every time I see you get lynched you are miraculously town.

I have absolutely no idea why you would literally start a day with an "I got shot" post before anybody even spoke. I don't believe you trying to convince me that was an accident.

You say scum wouldn't intentionally whiff a nightkill to make a point? I can see sense in that argument. I can't see reason in the argument that you' were their highest priority nightkill in a sane world.

What I'm saying is, either way, I think scum is goofing around and making weird plays for god knows what reason while they have the advantage.

And perhaps you're right. If you are scum, maybe you're not that much of a liability to them this game, but I'm also not the only one who's cast suspicion on you, even if we seem to be a relative minority.

Votals

SupahKiven (4) (Eidolonic, Acionyx, Garuru, Stiqqery)
Acionyx (4) (Granolaman, OzTheWizard, Schazer, Palamedes)
Palamedes (2) (Mister Visceral, SupahKiven)

Abstaining (3) (Affle, Truegreen, Cat)

Deadline is July 6th, 10PM EST (~56 hours)
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch and 4 for softlynch

SpoilerShow

I don't think Chemfia is a stunning example of anything. That game was a mess. An outlier.

I thought the writing was okay

(nah really that game was a mess)

@Stiq: who would you consider a high priority target in our current live list?