Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

#813, also by Pala is
also a thing

I know that in part it's easier to make a case on Pala because of the fact he straight-up posted more than Gnauga, but uuuuugh I'm just getting more and more paranoid.

those are things. there's also vote positions that look good for pala?

like, the solly thing is ... a thing.

D4: Up to where Pala threw the pie (Fogel's votals were the hottest fucking mess throughout this whole day)

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SpoilerTruegreen - 5 (Schazer, Whimbrel, SeeD4, (#640) Gnauga, Nova)
Eberron - 3 (Akumu, Garuru, Palamedes)
Garuru - 1 (Sotek)
Sotek - 1 (Donut)
Schazer - 1 (Truegreen)

D4: when Donut busted out a cop claim

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SpoilerTruegreen - 5 (Schazer, Whimbrel, Nova, Eberron, Donut)
Eberron - 3 (Akumu, Garuru, Truegreen)
Donut - 4 (Sotek, Coldblooded, Palamedes, SeeD4)

D4, at H-1 and Truegreen's subsequent self-hammer

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SpoilerTruegreen - 7 (Schazer, Whimbrel, Eberron, Donut, Akumu, Palamedes, Garuru)
Donut - 3 (SeeD4, Nova, Truegreen)

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D5, 4 to softlynch, in which a Donut-led wagon pushes Whim past soft lynch (and having to double-check this every time Fogel posts completely different votals is giving me a fucking headache)

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SpoilerAgentblue - 4 (Coldblooded, Sotek, Palamedes, SeeD4+)
Whimbrel - 5 (Nova, Garuru, Whimbrel, Donut, Eberron)
Coldblooded - 1 (Agentblue)
Dalm - 1 (Gnauga)

D5 dayend

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SpoilerAgentblue - 8 (Coldblooded, Sotek, Palamedes, SeeD4+, Gnauga, Garuru, Eberron, Donut)
Whimbrel - 2 (Nova, Whimbrel)
Coldblooded - 1 (Agentblue)

I need to stop and eat, the state of the votals those last two days feels like it's giving me goddamn heartburn.

Ok D6 hammer, pretty quick day:
Dalm - 2 (Sotek, Donut)
Whimbrel - 7 (Gnauga, Dalm, Nova, SeeD4+, Schazer, Garuru, Palamedes)

D7 hammer, 6 to lynch
Dalm - 6 (Donut, Akumu, Schazer, Palamedes, Sotek, Garuru)

D8. 5 to lynch. Akumu's caramel caramel event verified with guinea pig.
Palamedes - 1 (Sotek)
Akumu - 1 (Donut)
Schazer - 1 (Palamedes (shifted off a first-post vote of SeeD4+)

D8: I doc claim (also I voted Pala once then unvoted because I though H-3 was telling or something? The heck?)
Palamedes - 2 (Sotek, SeeD4+)
Akumu - 1 (Donut)
Schazer - 2 (Palamedes, Gnauga)

D8, Gnauga claims Spiteful Survivor
Palamedes - 1 (SeeD4+)
Gnauga - 4 (Sotek, Palamedes, TehPilot/Nova, Donut)
SeeD4+ - 1 (Gnauga)

D8 now
Palamedes - 1 (SeeD4+)
Gnauga - 2 (Palamedes, Donut)
SeeD4+ - 1 (Gnauga)

I uh.

vote: Seedy. That's my current stance on the vote breakdown.

nova's town, pala/gnauga has one scum, schazer has a doc claim with a cop who's been alive for days and days. speaking of, donut's cop, akumu was the evidence against truegreen and that still stands.

so ... seedy kinda is stuck.

unless seedy wants to counterclaim doc or something? that ... would be an Okay situation. I would be pretty okay with that.

Is that gleaned looking at my votals or Fogel's? Because I think Seedy wins the prize for "most incorrectly tallied on Fogel's Votals", at least over the latter half of the game.

your votals.

well

actually it's more like.

akumu and donut and nova are town. gnauga/pala are not BOTH scum, so it's left with you/seedy.

unless seedy is the real doc (in which case /it is worth counterclaiming/, seedy, staying hidden is moot if we can find the scum, especially if the alternative is lynching you! in this gamestate, if we lynch scum today, either I live and the scum are in a bad position, or I die and the last scum is outed!) you can't be lying, because donut isn't dead.

so ... yeah. it's basically down to you/seedy and gnauga/pala, and you have a doc claim when there kinda has to be a doc.

@schazer: haha yeah I remember one time I was legitimately wondering if I couldn't vote because my votes weren't showing up

also sorry I totally forgot about this all day, my brain has a limited number of TODO functions it can keep running at once I guess

frankly, I don't believe Gnauga's claim. it's too convenient, especially after so much prompting. remember when he asked what a survivor does? (and Schazer said "thanks for claiming not-survivor") I might be wrong, but I just don't see a new-ish player doing that level of deflection. I simply don't believe that we have another third party after the two superpowered ones that already flipped. That's a /lot/ of third party. Gnauga spends all day sitting on the edges of the conversation and then after enough people keep reiterating that there MUST be a third party, finally goes ahead and claims this magic thing. the complexity of the wincons might suggest reality but personally I find the whole thing just too pat.

I'm not very familiar with mentoring people as a scum leader but I know that any amount of brainstorming during the night can't do much for their behavior during the day. so I feel that if there's no daychat Gnauga could have gotten advice on a third-party claim (a good suggestion for scum who've stayed low-key, and survivors are pretty simple and unverifiable) without showing the effects of real, minute-to-minute mentoring. to be more succinct: I don't think new scum playing like new scum when their suspected bud is a more experienced player really counts as a towntell. giving a man a claim is one thing, teaching him to play mafia is another

also pala's claim is like...only supported by him knowing sotek's flavor right? unless there's something I'm missing. the point is if he's a scum flavorcop of course he can know that
like I trust sotek and all but I don't know if I approve of his trustingness here

to round this out and h8 on everyone: pilot's walls are nice, but I don't think nova accusing the cop bespeaks anything. nova seems to play more loose cannon style than "considering how this will look to others" style. 'swhy it was such a surprise when they checked town

also: I'm not the doc, but considering that the only no kill night was garuru's bp schazer could totally be lying about protecting donut since he hasn't been shot at yet. there's a lot of possibilities as to why donut isn't dead and none of them are "schazer can't be lying." I believe her but for other reasons and I think your reasons are flawed

btw schazer I unvoted palamedes right after sotek did back on page 46. in this case fogel's are actually correct? sorry
anyways vote: Gnauga if I am right then we'll have lynched scum if I'm wrong then tomorrow still won't be mylo

hm.

well.

hmm. it's NOT gnauga/pala as a scumpair.

lynching gnauga, though, hm. if he's scum great, if he's the 3p he claims ... that ... well it means pala is scum, which means the extra death pala said won't happen, which ... would make it okay.

hngh. But we still need the buddy.

oh hey Gnauga, quick question: Are you the R. L. Stine, flavourwise, or just a distilled version of the children's horror writer?

I signed up with R L Stine, and that's my flavor name. My flavor also says I've collected an urban legends series, which goosebumps technically isn't. I also don't think Mr. Robert Stine ever wanted to write a murder mystery, nor do I remember him having an obsession with death or related phenomena.

But it says I'm R. L. Stine so I guess I am the R.L. Stine?

Ah, just checked qt. DF told me it's just coincidence my chosen author happened to be related in writing about the supernatural. Not sure what this is about, but does this help?

Juuuust trying to see if I could catch you out with flavour implications based on what you said early-game, but no you seem to have your story straight.

you know what

gnauga's claim is so much better then pala's claim
and the fact we couldn't get 4 votes on pala but we got 4 on gnuaga in under a day seems hmm
vote palamedes

schazer has a doc claim with a cop who's been alive for days and days.

Just want to make it clear that I don't think donut was ever shot? Like yes we have a doc claim and yes the cop is still alive but it's not like we have someone to take responsibility for any of the other kills going around (if someone is they should pipe up for reasons Sotek has stated).

Sotek could you explain how Pilot is definitely town? Is there someone I'm missing or is it just a look at alignments. Because right now I could see Pilot as scum still, especially if Gnauga is town or a legit third party based on that H-2 vote.

I don't really believe Gnauga's claim either? I mean he claimed survivor after asking how it worked (he should have known) and after people repeatedly chimed in about how we probably wouldn't lynch a third party claim right now. It's just straight up the most convenient claim.

donut you do realize that the first two votes on Gnauga were pressure right? It was only your vote and Pilot's that were there to straight up lynch (If I had been around to notice I would have unvoted basically until post 1185 (because holy crap H-1 wagon out of nowhere donut, whyyyy).

Just want to make it clear that I don't think donut was ever shot? Like yes we have a doc claim and yes the cop is still alive but it's not like we have someone to take responsibility for any of the other kills going around (if someone is they should pipe up for reasons Sotek has stated).

I don't exactly see why having zero attempts on Donut's life takes away credence from his cop claim or Schazer's doc claim (if that's what you're getting at). Scum's (apparently) down their killing and manipulative/redirective roles and at the time Donut made his copclaim, no town protective roles had flipped. Chances are mafia would instead shoot other people in the hopes they'd chance across the doctor while the doctor was sitting pretty on the cop.

There's always the possibility that the doctor could protect someone other than the cop to try and stop other kill attempts, but that's wining the night protection and nightkill. Schazer claims to have gone with the safest play, which is sitting on the cop as the cop investigates away, and that's okay as far as I'm concerned.

so ... hm.

Pala, the fact you're even remotely ambiguous about disbelieving Gnauga is concerning to me.

that said, if I had to pick between pala and gnauga, I'd believe pala over gnauga right now.

and I guess lynching in that group is safer? Hnnng. vote: Gnauga.

sotek/pala scumteam 2014????
because sotek
hhhhhhhhhh
that post

donut what about that post.

pala/gnauga has exactly one scum. if gnauga is telling the truth, we can lynch him and it's ok because we'll be at mylo/lylo tomorrow.
if gnauga is lying, he's scum, and we want to lynch him for being scum.

so ... hm.

Pala, the fact you're even remotely ambiguous about disbelieving Gnauga is concerning to me.

that said, if I had to pick between pala and gnauga, I'd believe pala over gnauga right now.

and I guess lynching in that group is safer? Hnnng. vote: Gnauga.

"pala you seem suspicious

but I still believe you"

In defense of my claim, I knew what a survivor did, but I don't have any experience on how it's played. Survivor kingmaker never occurred to me; I just tried to play town. I also tried to get copped by donut when they claimed.

please don't kill me

well, it went from like 20/80 to 30/70 or something.

like, seriously, I know exactly one of them is scum.

so then I'm left going "which is a worse choice to lynch if they're NOT lying?" and pala is worse than gnauga, I think?

Also easier to make a late claim than to unclaim a bad one. I was just being cautious, making sure nobody was laying a trap. Just a little paranoid from werewolf, tbh.

What do you mean Sotek?

I mean, with two scum this is most definitely not MYLO by any stretch of the imagination, so I could see a world with Gnauga being honest as a possibility.

I mean I don't think it is, hence my vote, but I've thought that Fogel being cagey about the danger we're in could have been a mix of my role and a third party for a while.