The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

@TehPilot  You know what, I'm going to go ahead and apologize for being a bit too nasty there.  I definitely went overboard.  Yeah, I was frustrated when someone made a vote toward ending the day early right after I'd gotten through 3ish hours of catch-up and started asking questions, and I still see it as a potential scum move, but I shouldn't have been so mean about it.  Sorry.

Your hint wasn't close to massclaim divulgence... yet.  But it came at a point where there was no reason for it, theoretically puts heat off you, probably tells scum more than it tells town, and makes any sort of trueclaiming by the rest of town more dangerous if we do edge toward mass claim territory.  It wasn't a big thing in isolation, but the timing and lack of concrete information for town to consider are both problematic from my perspective.  You are correct that the revelations/claims about last night are technically more potentially damaging, but they also come with concrete information for town to consider as we move forward with our lynch today.  Side note, I personally wouldn't have made the claim Acio did in my spot, but I understand why he did it and what he was trying to do.

Interesting reads, even if they don't completely gel with my own.  You actually feel worse about Solaris after today's interactions?  Also, with regard to Blazer/Lordly, did their claim and offer to be lynched d2 make you lean more or less town on them? Finally, is it just their claims today that make you feel good about Jacquerel and Coldblooded, or is there something else to it?

@Airey

Look, you've said a lot of things today.  Things that don't mesh with what others are saying in a way that makes you look bad.  You also seemed to be focusing way more on a serial killer answer than seems prudent, though you ARE claiming you got shot at by what you think is a SK.  And finally, you just made a claim that, if true, seems INCREDIBLY anti-town to have revealed publicly.  Since you're already at soft lynch, I'm sure you wouldn't mind answering a few questions .

1) Given that they seem to contradict you, do you now believe that one or both of coldblooded and jacquerel are scum?  If just one, which and why?

2) If you DID get shot by a serial killer before... whatever blood thing occurred, why are you claiming it?

3) You just claimed bomb.  If it's true and everyone believed it, scum will no longer target you.  This completely defeats the purpose of your role itself.  Why make that claim, instead of just announcing that you were targeted?

4) Would you like to take a second stab at a role claim?  If so, what were you hoping to gain out of the bomb claim?

5) What two players do you believe most likely to be coaligned scum?

6) You are voting for Solaris on assumption of being a Serial Killer.  I stated earlier that I very strongly disagree with hunting for a SK at this juncture.  Do you disagree with my logic on that?  If so, please explain why I'm wrong.

7) You're suspicious of Solaris.  Suppose they're part of the scum team, not a serial killer.  Who's the rest of their team?

8) What two players would you like to hear most from about their current reads?

Quick reply while at work:

@x1372 - all good. I actually feel better about Solaris with respect to feeling they could be more likely town over scum, just to clarify. The Blazer/Lordly claim did make me lean town on them; the timing and nature of their claim does not lead me to believe they would be scum. Interested to hear more from Lordly though; circumstances as support for a town read cannot last forever. I liked Coldblooded and Jac from earlier in the game - specifically D1/D2 Coldblooded and D2 Jac. The claims gel well with my previous town read and Airey's response to them also bolsters my faith.

I know I said I’d make a bigger post (I wanna look over what Schazer and NTA said, also I can’t remember if the former answered my questions or not) but I’m leaving for an international trip Soon so that probably won’t actually happen until I’m on the plane and bored. Sorry

@tehpilot why does ac’s flip make you think solaris is more town?

I think what airey’s saying isn’t totally batshit but also has some big holes in it...my impression is honestly that he’s taking a true thing that he got flavor about and kludging it together into...something that isn’t true
like maybe HE was prevented from doing his real role by the blood and is going off of that to say all this stuff? idk. I had some theories about the blood stuff but now with cb and jac’s statements I’m not sure what anymore.
I don’t really understand the town or scum reason to make the claim Airey did, so...
I vaguely remember someone saying he rolehinted but idk who...can anyone recall if he was hinting at anything like this before acio’s ON DEATH ROLES ARE TOWN thing?

speaking of roles, for beruru who asked:
Numbers - "according to my role I'm a person who prays to some deity to prevent the killing or lynching of another person"
acio1372 - claimed an on-death thing
BlazerC - claimed vengeful
Slorange - claimed to have a mechanical clear on Schazer, has not elaborated

I haven’t gone back over today’s stuff yet
also it’s odd to pic jac and not numbers now that I review it (actually the numbers claim might have been d1 now that I’m thinking about it, which makes it weirder...)
I mean I get thinking they won’t be able to pick effectively and can be saved for later, but.......I’d think the claim would still outweigh that?

*pick

Argh.

Yeah Numbers claimed for no reason right at the end of day one and I hadn't talked about it again since because bringing notice to it if people didn't notice seemed like a bad idea, but the longer since that claim that he doesn't die at night the worse he looks.
My suspicion is that he's talking about a one-shot ability (I don't at this point think this game has a normal doctor but that's just musing, maybe it still does) but that's still like, why would you risk leaving that around.
Good fake claim though, easy to say "oh I protected this guy and they shot someone else, whoops!" later.

yeah, I usually go with the logic of “if the mafia is paying any attention they already know this” if it’s something as unsubtle as that. which is sometimes giving them too much credit, but that’s life. maybe they just think numbies is mislynchable enough that it balances out
p.s. numbers jsyk don’t confirm/deny jac's theory about how many times you can use your role. if he asks you a direct question in the future it’s fine to answer since he’s only not-town in a bizarro universe but don’t answer theorizing

I know I said I’d make a bigger post (I wanna look over what Schazer and NTA said, also I can’t remember if the former answered my questions or not)

Yeah sorry I've been bz, if I don't address this by a reasonable point in the day's proceedings then slap some votes on me

@TehPilot  You know what, I'm going to go ahead and apologize for being a bit too nasty there.  I definitely went overboard.  Yeah, I was frustrated when someone made a vote toward ending the day early right after I'd gotten through 3ish hours of catch-up and started asking questions, and I still see it as a potential scum move, but I shouldn't have been so mean about it.  Sorry.

Your hint wasn't close to massclaim divulgence... yet.  But it came at a point where there was no reason for it, theoretically puts heat off you, probably tells scum more than it tells town, and makes any sort of trueclaiming by the rest of town more dangerous if we do edge toward mass claim territory.  It wasn't a big thing in isolation, but the timing and lack of concrete information for town to consider are both problematic from my perspective.  You are correct that the revelations/claims about last night are technically more potentially damaging, but they also come with concrete information for town to consider as we move forward with our lynch today.  Side note, I personally wouldn't have made the claim Acio did in my spot, but I understand why he did it and what he was trying to do.

Interesting reads, even if they don't completely gel with my own.  You actually feel worse about Solaris after today's interactions?  Also, with regard to Blazer/Lordly, did their claim and offer to be lynched d2 make you lean more or less town on them? Finally, is it just their claims today that make you feel good about Jacquerel and Coldblooded, or is there something else to it?

@Airey

Look, you've said a lot of things today.  Things that don't mesh with what others are saying in a way that makes you look bad.  You also seemed to be focusing way more on a serial killer answer than seems prudent, though you ARE claiming you got shot at by what you think is a SK.  And finally, you just made a claim that, if true, seems INCREDIBLY anti-town to have revealed publicly.  Since you're already at soft lynch, I'm sure you wouldn't mind answering a few questions .

1) Given that they seem to contradict you, do you now believe that one or both of coldblooded and jacquerel are scum?  If just one, which and why?

2) If you DID get shot by a serial killer before... whatever blood thing occurred, why are you claiming it?

3) You just claimed bomb.  If it's true and everyone believed it, scum will no longer target you.  This completely defeats the purpose of your role itself.  Why make that claim, instead of just announcing that you were targeted?

4) Would you like to take a second stab at a role claim?  If so, what were you hoping to gain out of the bomb claim?

5) What two players do you believe most likely to be coaligned scum?

6) You are voting for Solaris on assumption of being a Serial Killer.  I stated earlier that I very strongly disagree with hunting for a SK at this juncture.  Do you disagree with my logic on that?  If so, please explain why I'm wrong.

7) You're suspicious of Solaris.  Suppose they're part of the scum team, not a serial killer.  Who's the rest of their team?

8) What two players would you like to hear most from about their current reads?

 
1.) Neither are scum to me, i think something shenanigans is going on because if i didnt survive because of the blood then something saved me and the sk.
2/3/4.) So my role has two parts, now that my bomb has gone off i no longer have it so i am shit out of luck, didnt want to say it but i feel like i have to explain it now, so for my other part i would rather not go into that as i might have to end up using it.
5.) slorange and beruru, both have been quite today and are just sitting back letting town duke it out.
6.) ok so you logic is solid, it makes 100% sense but referring to 2/3/4 my bomb was meant for sk and sk alone. for reasons i need sk dead, like yesterday.
7.) if they are part of scum team then i am even more out of luck then i already am, if they are scum i could see number/slorange/beruru part of a team with sol.
8.)I want to hear from slorange and NTA just to get them talking more.

i completely forgot about the numbers claim lmao

i still dont really like airey here? its like, bomb slash something else kinda makes sense but ???

its like, i guess it isnt impossible that theres two roles that are Extant To Counter the SK and one of them has it as a side gig on town but it feels far more likely to be similar to the toxicologist fake claim to me lol

i like pilot more than i did so thats good, and seedy brings up a point about numbers and its difficult? because its all stuff that extremely feels Earnest Town but i guess it could also be literally claiming a fakeclaim? esp since numbers focused more on the flavor of it than on the mechanic stuff?????? its, definitely something to think about i think

anyway airey what do you mean by the bomb is meant for the sk

we really should probably lynch airey today, the things they say make less and less sense the more I think about them
for example claiming they “know the sk can joint with scum” that they “need the sk dead” and that they know they were targeted is...confusing considering that the specific anti-sk role got lynched d1
(oops sol said this while I was typing)

I wanna pressure NTA (and Schazer) but I just don’t know how to reconcile what airey is saying with everything else
if they move out of soft I’ll vote them

Ultra Votal

Airey - 5 (Solaris, TehPilot, Coldblooded, Granolaman, Jacquerel)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, Palamedes)
Numbers - 1 (Schazer)
Robust Laser - 1 (Numbers)
Not The Author - 1 (seedy)
Solaris - 1 (Airey)

Abstaining - 6 (LordlyHour, Robust Laser, SleepingOrange, Sai, Not The Author, beruru)

With 17 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 66 hours, at 5pm CET on Thursday, September 13.

Day End Countdown

its like, i guess it isnt impossible that theres two roles that are Extant To Counter the SK and one of them has it as a side gig on town but it feels far more likely to be similar to the toxicologist fake claim to me lol

SK is usually an extremely difficult role to win with even in the best of circumstances, so having multiple roles that exist purely to counter it is just like..... why?

Also if we take Airey's claim here it probably means that A.) the SK has a way to survive nightkills, even from roles that are specifically designed to counter it (sure fine, whatever), but also B.) that Airey was targeted by a protective role last night. And like, no offense Airey, but why on earth would anyone do that besides a scummate?

its like, i guess it isnt impossible that theres two roles that are Extant To Counter the SK and one of them has it as a side gig on town but it feels far more likely to be similar to the toxicologist fake claim to me lol

SK is usually an extremely difficult role to win with even in the best of circumstances, so having multiple roles that exist purely to counter it is just like..... why?

Also if we take Airey's claim here it probably means that A.) the SK has a way to survive nightkills, even from roles that are specifically designed to counter it (sure fine, whatever), but also B.) that Airey was targeted by a protective role last night. And like, no offense Airey, but why on earth would anyone do that besides a scummate?

I don't think i was targeted by a protective role last night, and the SK was not my target until n1 which is sort of annoying but i tried to play it the best i could. The other reason why i don't think i was target by a protection role is how would my killer also survive if this was the case. They should be blown to kingdom come right now and there would be more information for town to go off.

So you're like a third party right because "I was assigned someone who I need to die on night one and it sucks that it was the serial killer and also I was told their role, not their name" is not like, town.
Our third third party?

So you're like a third party right because "I was assigned someone who I need to die on night one and it sucks that it was the serial killer and also I was told their role, not their name" is not like, town.
Our third third party?

Because of the d1 lynch i picked up that persons cause, fanatically so that i am willing to give my own life to their cause.

So like if we'd lynched scum D1 you'd've joined the scum faction?

So like if we'd lynched scum D1 you'd've joined the scum faction?

Correct

Oh Christ it's another Walrus

Oh Christ it's another Walrus

Don't body shame me bro.

I also don’t understand why you’d tell us all this as 3p(?)

I would also like to know...did you always have your bomb power, or did it come into being when you got a wincon to help you counter your new target?

Okay, so Airey's claim is that they're the new Walrus-aligned person but keep their old power? I'm fine with lynching that, because if he's lying he's scum and if he's telling the truth he's still not town.

I'm just gonna drop my read list here, grouped by category. Most of this is actually unchanged from yesterday.

Town - Do Not Lynch -

Coldblooded - Was the towniest essentially after Pharm's flip and continued being extremely painfully obviously town to the point that I'd consider them essentially clear. I don't think this read would be any reduced even before their doc claim.

Jacquerel - While less obvious than CB, I think they were also pretty clearly proactively town, and it does make sense to me that they'd be shot at just on account of being largely considered townie and therefore hard to ML.

Acionyx / x1372 - Acio was a pretty strong driver of early discussion, and while I didn't always view things from the same perspective, I largely agreed with their points after they explained them. More importantly, I think that their frustration in the Seedy argument was genuine, and I don't necessarily see a scum player getting so heavily invested in that awkward argument. x1372 as a sub seems to be similarly approaching things with townmind, so I'm pretty comfortable with their affiliation

Slorange - This one's mostly an empathy based read, but their actual content D2 posts basically mirrored my own thoughts on most of their reads before I'd posted to that effect, which just made me think that they were approaching the game from the same perspective. They claimed to have been targeted by a cleaning action and we know that Justice Watch roleplay claimed a janitorial role, but that doesn't really affect my read; just makes me curious about what JW did.

BlazerC / LordlyHour - Admittedly this one's mostly just based on their role claim, but I think that the way that they went about suggesting that they be lynched to shoot AC read as genuine. It's an extremely big risk for scum to take, especially when they were in 2nd rather than being the lynch leader at the time.

Solaris - I honestly have a hard time processing their posts just based on how they normally type for whatever reason, so I just glossed over most of their posts D1 and D2 except when I was looking at others interacting with them. Just their approach to Airey made me lean town, though, and now that I've actually made myself read their content, I'm much more confident in that.

Numbers - Not the strongest of reads, but I actually think they're town based mostly on their interactions with Pharms not reading as artificial / teammates to me. I do think that the fact that they're new is making them flop around a lot, but I have way lower expectations of their posts.

Null, leaning town -

Palamedes - I was considering putting Pala up in town on the null end, and they're where I'd say the line is. I think that the fact that they didn't give me a pass for posting walls of text is a big up in my book, but the reason that I don't want to say that they're town is just that I don't have a strong idea of who they suspect, if that makes sense. It's partially just an activity thing, but from Slorange for instance, even with what little we have it was very clearly 'these people are probably townie, these people are probably scum, here's why I think that,' whereas Pala seems much more opaque to me.

Seedy - Like Pala, more just someone that I don't have a great read on than someone that's been lurky or scummy. While I read Acio's push on and subsequent frustration with Seedy as townie, since the discussion was largely mechanical, I don't see Seedy's defense as being townie in and of itself. The towniest thing that I think Seedy's done is not relenting on Schaz in D2.

Justice Watch / Beruru - I honestly think JW's dumb roleplay scrubbing did as much to make to make me lean town as Beruru's read list. I feel like Mafia would want to keep their fake-role in their backpocket moreso than Town which would presume it as their default flavor. It's not a strong read by any means, though, and I want to see more from Beruru whose readlist honestly didn't give me any strong impression.

Can Lynch -

Schazer - I've waffled on Schazer a fair bit, but while I saw some thoughts that mirrored mine near the start of D2, there were some things I really, really disliked. Prodding for a potential Acio lynch when they were gunning for seedy, going after numbers without thoughts to a potential team, extremely half-hearted pressure on granola - there's basically just a lot of stuff that I see as pretty transparently Not Townie.

TehPilot - The only thing in their favor is that it would be a little weird for them to be on a team with Airey or Granola. I honestly don't have as strong of an opinion of their 'hammer' vote as x1372 did because it would be phenomenally stupid to hammer as scum and draw attention to themselves. OTOH, if they were actually paying attention to the votals and knew that it wouldn't actually end the day, then it's more just handing a potential hammer to someone else - which is WAY scummier as far as I'm concerned.

Granolaman - I have not seen a post from this duder that actually made me think that they're townie, and they've actually got a decent body of posts. There's a bunch of standoffish stuff that I just thought was outright shady, like the "hmm maybe" thing when Schaz suggested an Acio lynch and, like Pala, I don't have a clear view of who they actually think is townie, except unlike Pala I don't think they've done anything past very surface level analysis and discussions that were tied to mechanics over reads. Their suspect list as of today is frankly awful, since as far as I can tell it's strictly based on content quantity and then, well, me. Actually, yeah, I'm good with voting here.

Vote: Granola

Airey - I hated their post yesterday, though if their win cond is actual serial killer hunting it's at least consistent. I don't see any way that lynching them is bad, honestly, since even if they're telling the truth, they're not town. While it is giving us a lot of third parties, having them be aligned based on the D1 lynch is less number-affecting than their being assigned a third party alignment from the getgo, so I can see if at least fitting into the game. The other thing is that it was mentioned earlier that scum were given a townie role card to claim, so if they were mafia, I don't see why they wouldn't claim that as opposed to this whole third party nonsense. Their suppositions regarding power activations directly conflicting with my top two town reads makes me okay with lynching them, but I'm less enthusiastic about it even if it is fundamentally 'safe.'

Robust Laser - I essentially just agree with what Jacq said to them - if they're town, they're just not being useful. It's extremely difficult to try to get a read on a pity party, and while it may be genuine it's just not... helpful. I'd honestly rather lynch Granola, Pilot or Not the Author over them, but I wouldn't be miffed to see them die either.

Not The Author - I just don't get the impression that they're trying to find mafia. I gave them a lot of credit for voting for me and actually giving reasoning as to why since if nothing else it was opening up a new avenue of discussion (even if no one else bothered to talk more about it), but they only did so when called out by Acio for having ignored my posts to begin with, and, after reading through their posts in particular they have literally zero other analysis. The list they put together when directly asked for one by Pala didn't seem to have any rationale behind it. Like, at all. I don't see how they could have a town read on granola, and I definitely don't understand what 'not third party' is even supposed to mean.

Quick reply while at work:

@x1372 - all good. I actually feel better about Solaris with respect to feeling they could be more likely town over scum, just to clarify. The Blazer/Lordly claim did make me lean town on them; the timing and nature of their claim does not lead me to believe they would be scum. Interested to hear more from Lordly though; circumstances as support for a town read cannot last forever. I liked Coldblooded and Jac from earlier in the game - specifically D1/D2 Coldblooded and D2 Jac. The claims gel well with my previous town read and Airey's response to them also bolsters my faith.

Sorry about not being More Active, I'm trying to Internalize all the Information we've got so far so I don't go flying off the handle making spurious accusations like the dumb noob that I am. Admittedly, The Radio Silence on my end is ALSO suspicious as fuck. I'll be done with my re analysis in a couple of hours, so Please Stand By for My Two Cents

Not The Author - I just don't get the impression that they're trying to find mafia. I gave them a lot of credit for voting for me and actually giving reasoning as to why since if nothing else it was opening up a new avenue of discussion (even if no one else bothered to talk more about it), but they only did so when called out by Acio for having ignored my posts to begin with, and, after reading through their posts in particular they have literally zero other analysis. The list they put together when directly asked for one by Pala didn't seem to have any rationale behind it. Like, at all. I don't see how they could have a town read on granola, and I definitely don't understand what 'not third party' is even supposed to mean.

Mostly this whole experience has reminded me why I started only joining gimmick mafias: I just don't know what to look for when it comes to scumhunting. That D2 read list was based more on vibes than actual analysis, because I never actually got around to the actual analysis I'd hoped to do. Like, "Not Third Party" is essentially "people who are invested in making lynches happen, but who I can't pin as either Mafia or Town specifically." And even then, "Mafia" and "Town" read more as "Mafia?" and "Town???" because they're based as much on tone and activity as anything else, which is not a way of assessing things that I can get behind! Even though it's the only way I can asses things most of the time!

Is this me defending myself? Nope! My play's been garbage and people are right to suspect me for it! Is any of this helpful? Maybe! It'll probably give some of you a better read on my alignment somehow, someway that I'll never be able to understand! Is this too self-aware? I still don't know what the hell that means!!

You wanna know what I think? Here's what I think:

• Jacquerel's tendency to tutor feels off. Not inherently scummy, but conceivably a way to help newer mafia (Mafia) players know what (not) to do in real time, assuming the absence of a daychat option,
  

• I don't know how people keep concluding that Slorange is town, but I also still need to go back and cross-reference stuff, and won't be satisfied until I come to my own conclusions, and
  
• Schazer seems so heavily 3rd party that they wrap all the way around the spectrum and then back out of third party into scum, so they can't possibly be scum, which is what they want me to think, Vote: Schazer.
  

Tha's pretty much all I got. I'll try to go through and like. Get an actual post through at some point? with like, concrete... things? and maybe a vote based on, Iunno, behavioral analysis or something. You know, more empty promises. Don't hold your breath.


"Too self aware," fuck off.

Oh, right, apropos of nothing, did anyone what were involved in people dying-but-maybe-not-really have any flavor involving timeframes, timespans, or specific hours? Trying to cross-reference something that's probably actually nothing.