The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

Hey Mirdini I hope this isn't rude or anything!! but I just wanted to see where things are standing soooo

Numbers - 3 (Coldblooded, Palamedes, seedy)
Airey - 1 (TehPilot)
Granolaman - 2 (Airey, Schazer)
Sai - 1 (Acionyx)
seedy - 1 (Robust Laser)
LegendaryQ - 4 (Solaris, Reyweld, Granolaman, TehPilot)
Solaris - 1 (Jacquerel)
Not The Author - 1 (Numbers)
Schazer - 1 (Sai)

Abstaining - 5 (Pharmacy, awkwardcarapace, Justice Watch, SleepingOrange, Not The Author)

Personally keeping eye on Q and Numbers rn, they seem aligned? And the way they voted lurker and backpedaled right after seems :think emoji:-y

Vote: Schazer

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

Vote: Schazer

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

The obvious answer is LegendaryQ, as what appears to be a target of heavy suspicion; having a clearer read on whether or not hunches are Just That or collusion with an enemy could potentially create branching logic paths from which to proceed-- but I almost feel like that's too obvious, and could be used as a smokescreen by those who... would, uh. do that. yes.

A perhaps better answer, then, is one who's been relatively active in discussions but has otherwise managed to avoid the bead of scrutiny, which may get us slightly farther than directly reinforcing or refuting analysis that has already been performed. Don't have anyone in particular in mind, though.

It would also be good to know, supposing the existence of some hypothetical detectives, what of flavor detective they are (supposing non-standard detectives are A Thing in this setup), but the only conclusive ways I can think to test that is to reveal the alignment of someone who later dies, which isn't helpful in the short-term, or to have my own alignment revealed, which only enlightens me. Unless I claim, but would only open more cans of worms, and I refuse to rise to the bait.

Vote: Schazer

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

Well, I have no real questions other than how everyone is viewing me, but my read on tehpilot is that they are a bit townie, but I disagree with their opinion on not lynching lurkers. Lurkers add nothing to the table; they're kinda just dead weight.

As for a player's alignment being revealed, I wish for my own alignment to be revealed. I have no real reason to worry about saying this because as far as I know, I'm town. Had I not of been a townie, then I would logically have named someone else. Sure, this doesn't say anything about any of my reads, but it will allow myself to be cleared up. Besides, I have the entirety of Day 2 to speak my reads and stuff.

Other than me, maybe Not The Author, because they still haven't said much of anything relating to much of anything

I'm leaning Acio with Numbers as a close second. On the first, you've essentially ignored me and the suspicion about me which suggests to me, amongst other options, that perhaps you're playing into previous meta (could go either way), or don't really want to deal with my nonsense without more info (i.e. town), or you're saving me as an easy mislynch on a later day (i.e. scum). Numbers is a close second simply because it'd answer a lot of questions I find myself having.

I dunno, unless a pack of tragically-underinformed townies* push for what's sure to be a mislynch on D1 (cuz none of today's wagon-approximate targets have struck me as being blatantly obvious scum) aren't we all just prodding at each other seeing if anyone's fool enough to crack this early waiting for an actual flip?


*I say with decent confidence, cuz if we had an actual D1 lynch on our hands (given the current state of things where nobody's reallly looking like a valid target) I'm p. sure scum wouldn't be ballsy enough to stick a vote on it

Like. With soft lynch of 6, given the number of substantive contributators who've chimed in today I think a hypothetical Massive Target could actually be dragged into the Hammerzone and manage to do it without any scum being forced to put something concrete like a vote on the board.

What I'm saying is, before I pissed in some vinegar and dumped the resulting concoction into the wine of the situation, if I got given the 6+ Essential Measurements for a bespoke tailored D1 noose, I'd be pretty confident that the six seamstresses in question were all town and due to be the target of an undue amount of questioning come D2 for the general benefit of scum.

I don't think that a random lynch is a guaranteed mislynch, and even if you were 100% right, 1 dead townie is easily worth 6 clears. I don't think that the hit or power claims will do us more good than an actual lynch, any lynch, in terms of actually giving information, that there's literally no good reason to wait to get that information, and that even if you do think that any sort of D1 lynch is ass, that it would at least get us more information wrt actually using powers.

Or, actually, I think I get it now. You're saying that Reyweld not factoring in the possibility that one of the two existing wagons was already scum and that numbers would have wanted to divert the lynch from a potential teammate is something that only town would do, because scum would be more conscientious about the possibility of diverting a lynch from a teammate, right? I don't actually agree with the reasoning (if that is the argument), because scum could also just as easily know that both wagons are town and therefore not think of that as being a reason to try to push another lynch.

I think scum's more cautious about things that are easy enough to think twice on, especially when they get asked about it and given a chance to clarify, town's more likely to blank

I'm actually still not sure I follow, though I might just be tired. I don't think that Reyweld blanked there, even if you disagree with his reasoning.

What's your feel on coldblooded 93?

That said, I don't see numbers as particularly noteable. Why would you point out them versus Acionyx or Airey?

I'm not sure why you picked out Acio and Airey in particular, but both of them cast their votes super early before we had anything to go on, and have both at least been making token efforts at activity since then. It's not really the same thing at all? Honestly the people who look most similar to Numbers right now are probably Sai and RL, I just chose Numbers over the two of them because they were the only one who voted for someone I had a light townread on.

Where did the Numbers/Acio/Airey connection come from Reyweld?

I think that with that post on its own, that it's weird that he linked total lack of content with behavior that he found to be actively scummy, but I think that this post was much better -

If Numbers wanted to support a bandwagon, they should have put their vote on one of the other 2 existing wagons with 3 votes on them, rather than bring another wagon to 3. As a potential scum tactic, it has only risk and no reward.

See I'm actually thinking the exact opposite, scum strategy at this early in the game is less "Try to push a wagon and get a townie lynched" and more "Don't get noticed, wait for dayend, let town wallow in RVS all day if possible".

Wagons that build up out of nowhere early D1 rarely actually end in lynches, but if one of those wagons starts climbing up into softlynch territory then people might actually start investigating it and asking if there were any scum pushing it. But on the other hand, four competing RVS wagons with three votes each? That's nothing, who gives a shit. No one's gonna be cross-referencing that in 4 weeks.

I read the followup as saying that any sort of lack-of-content is scummy, which is, well, neither really useful nor contentious, but I'd still feel more comfortable with CB if he'd led with that.

I'm also interested in what he'll say now that there's more content to look at.

No thanks.

no thanks because you think everyone will be like " yeah na" and lynch you instead or because you are scared to hit town and then get lynched for a bad call/suspected of scum?

right now i doubt we will hit hard lynch for d1 and the soft lynch will be the factor. it would be bad if we go without a lynch d1.

I'm a little surprised Airey didn't vote for Slorange here.

Honestly i almost did but i wanted to wait and hear his answer before i did or not.

I understand not liking d1 lynch because the odds of hitting town are to high and its not like anyone will scumslip this early. however the more information we have going into d2 the better. right now we also do not know night actions like if there is a vig or how many bodys can show up.

Also i like my spider avatar and it look nothing likes schazers bird thing.

It seemed like such a leading question / accusation that your casual acceptance of his reply seems weird, especially since you didn't follow up on his reply until just now.

Vote: Schazer

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

Yeah, okay. I was actually looking through the thread for a good post to ask you about and found tehPilot's at #188, but then rediscovered that you were asking what we thought of tehPilot so I'll find another one.

Alright, here, do you have a read on Palamedes? In particular this post -

I meant that adding to another bandwagon would be a bad scum tactic, yes.

If their goal was to avoid attention D1 they could have just Not Done That without any sort of risk. If their goal was to further a D1 lynch, they would have picked either of the two wagons with 3 votes.

Palamedes, CB, Blazer opinions on this?

I... kind of see where you're going with this? I mean it's more than most people have done so far, but I don't think Reyweld is new enough to this to be completely blind. Past that, it's a sort of simple defence without any bite to it so Reyweld could have just been throwing it out knowing that there was almost no way it would be taken bad in the long run. I'm still somewhat interested in hearing the correlation between you/Airey to Numbers since unlike what both Coldblooded and Reyweld said I don't think any of you really just made a single vote and were gone otherwise (at least, not compared to anyone else) and that's the main thing that probably makes me feel weird about the entire exchange on both sides.

Speaking of Numbers, I'm not a huge fan of how they immediately buddied up to Coldblooded just now for questioning them. Vote: Numbers

(Just lost the rest of this post and am going to bed so I'll tl;dr it):
Coldblooded looks good for Numbers looking strange
Airey looks good for joining in on Acio's question time without prompting
People making no content posts and nothing else at this point make me uneasy
Q stands out for looking like he's trying to be helpful but is completely ignoring discussion topics (of which this is sort of the only major one to be fair) is weird, Q what are your thoughts on this whole Reyweld debate and related posts?

If Slorange won't be Caesar I'll do it for him. Who's being gladiatored again?

To answer your first question, I don't actually have a great read on TehPilot. His post was okay in that he gave at least some reasoning for voting for Q and the Q/numbers votes on me were both weird, but it's an extremely safe position to take if he actually thought that a wagon on me might go through. I was finna ask your thoughts on it.

To answer your second, if it were a personal report, I'd cop seedy because I'm completely null on their posts. If it were a public cop, I'd pick you both to make sure that discussion didn't get masterminded and to get a useful clear early if you're town. I'd be willing to take the bet that a game this size would have a protective role.

I'm leaning Acio with Numbers as a close second. On the first, you've essentially ignored me and the suspicion about me which suggests to me, amongst other options, that perhaps you're playing into previous meta (could go either way), or don't really want to deal with my nonsense without more info (i.e. town), or you're saving me as an easy mislynch on a later day (i.e. scum). Numbers is a close second simply because it'd answer a lot of questions I find myself having.

If either of the two were likely to be town, what conclusions / other value would you get by clearing them?

Alright brief comeback. Sorry I'm mostly doing these long posts but I'm pretty busy nowadays.

Even less of a fan of Q for that Sai vote (what about following Acio's vote on Sai was worth going for over literally anyone else at the point you voted?)

Speaking of Sai, at first I feel pretty good about just from a content point of view but a lot of the posts he's come up with since reappearing seem fairly rushed for said content (giant quote walls, post by post response with varying quality of comments and questions). That sort of makes me wary, since at I find scum play is usually about quantity over quality as far as analysis goes. Sai, what do you think of me?

Why are we all assuming a random lynch will give us a bunch of townfirms?

seedy is sort of off for me for the lurker comment (either follow that by trying to get a lurker lynch through or explain why you're proposing it but not being a part of it), as far as I'm concerned lurker lynches are for when you don't have a proper target come end of day, since it's probably one of the only good ways to get rid of them (which yes, can often be necessary) but you're not wasting a day(s) going after them.

Not The Author's response to the public cop question is not great, like maybe they're going for a typing gimmick but it seemed like it was trying to dance around a real answer, and I'm just not a fan of unvoting without pursuing a new lead like they did earlier either.

(For the record, I'd reveal myself since it'd make me a target and I really don't want to live into endgame and blow things again but since that isn't a serious or likely allowed answer I'd pick Granola. Feel pretty neutral on him and there's a chance that he won't get taken out by scum for a while without that confirm unlike Acio.)

Numbers isn't really doing anything to make me want to change my vote. Could move to Q with an off chance of NTA or maybe Sai if that's the way things go.

Sorry I'm mostly doing these long posts but I'm pretty busy nowadays.

That's actually what I'm doing too and why I'll probably keep doing quote walls. I'm gonna have relatively small windows to post, so I'm trying to keep everything encapsulated.

Speaking of Sai, at first I feel pretty good about just from a content point of view but a lot of the posts he's come up with since reappearing seem fairly rushed for said content (giant quote walls, post by post response with varying quality of comments and questions). That sort of makes me wary, since at I find scum play is usually about quantity over quality as far as analysis goes. Sai, what do you think of me?

They look rushed because they are rushed. If there were more involved arguments, I'd probably be going over the same posts multiple times in these things.

I don't have a read on you. I doubt I will until there's more discussion. I think your first vote for numbers was fine, albeit inoffensive. I don't find numbers' posts as incriminating as you did, because I think they just make it obvious that they're new more than anything else.

Why are we all assuming a random lynch will give us a bunch of townfirms?

I'm not. I'm saying that in Schazer's hypothetical about a D1 lynch being a guaranteed, strictly a townie-led mislynch, then it'd still be worthwhile.

Numbers isn't really doing anything to make me want to change my vote. Could move to Q with an off chance of NTA or maybe Sai if that's the way things go.

Can you explain why you'd want to lynch Not The Author?
Also, is there a particular reason that you you wouldn't want to lynch Schazer?

10 Hours 'til Night Votals

LegendaryQ - 4 (Solaris, Reyweld, Granolaman, TehPilot)
Numbers - 3 (Coldblooded, Palamedes, seedy)
Granolaman - 2 (Airey, Schazer)
Schazer - 2 (Sai, Acionyx)
seedy - 1 (Robust Laser)
Solaris - 1 (Jacquerel)

Abstaining - 8 (Pharmacy, awkwardcarapace, Justice Watch, SleepingOrange, Not The Author, LegendaryQ, BlazerC, Numbers)

With 21 players alive it takes 11 votes to hard lynch, and 6 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 10 hours, at 10pm CET on Thursday, August 23rd.

NEW Day End Countdown

Can you explain why you'd want to lynch Not The Author?
Also, is there a particular reason that you you wouldn't want to lynch Schazer?

Basically, it's because Not The Author has been saying all rhetoric and no fact.

I'll say why I didn't vote Schazer later when I actually have the time to type out more than a single sentence.

I don't think Schazer is a good choice for a lynch for a few reasons.

1. Lynching them won't offer very much information. Schazer has been purposely keeping in that 'D1 doesn't matter' mindset and hasn't been interacting with anyone. Sure, if they flipped scum it would be great. But if they flip Town, we gain nothing.
   
2. Because they will offer little to no information when they die, Town!Schazer is a prime target for a scum night kill.
   
3. If they don't die today, and live through the night, and continue acting like this, then we should lynch them.
   
4. Also there's ~9 hours left and it isn't happening.
   

Also, re: lynching LegendaryQ confirms x Town: I super disagree. If they're Scum!LegendaryQ, which would be golden, scum could decide to cut Q loose in favour of looking good. While I would feel better about the other three currently on the lynch, it wouldn't and shouldn't be considered a townfirm.

If they're Town!LegendaryQ, it isn't a Townfirm because anyone who voted for them could be Scum.

I'm leaning Acio with Numbers as a close second. On the first, you've essentially ignored me and the suspicion about me which suggests to me, amongst other options, that perhaps you're playing into previous meta (could go either way), or don't really want to deal with my nonsense without more info (i.e. town), or you're saving me as an easy mislynch on a later day (i.e. scum). Numbers is a close second simply because it'd answer a lot of questions I find myself having.

If either of the two were likely to be town, what conclusions / other value would you get by clearing them?

Acio: I have a tendency to trust/follow the judgment of Acio frankly because they're a much much better player than I am, so a townfirm would give me more certainty. I will admit this is absolutely a meta reason.

Numbers: Then I'll feel confident they're just newbie town and there's nothing else going on with their activity relative to me.

@Sai, asking why I'd lynch NTA:

Not The Author's response to the public cop question is not great, like maybe they're going for a typing gimmick but it seemed like it was trying to dance around a real answer, and I'm just not a fan of unvoting without pursuing a new lead like they did earlier either.

If this isn't super clear I think they're trying to avoid committing on anything, but since that looks bad they're throwing a lot of words out to cover that up.

Schazer is not a fantastic lynch for more or less the same reason a lurker lynch sucks. No info, and going after them outside of the last few hours of the day is likely wasting your time (at least this early, when they're committed to the whole 'day one is bullshit' thing). Keeping on someone who isn't going to respond or change like that is also a really safe vote for scum.

I'll vote for them for the same reasons I'd vote for a lurker - to get them out of the way in an end of Day voting frenzy because a real target didn't come together. That's because I disagree with Reyweld on his point that Schazer is a likely scum target - scum usually wants to keep distractions like lurkers or the unhelpful alive since it keeps town off of their back and often provide better targets to town. Thus it is up to town to get rid of them, but in a way that doesn't lead to us wasting our voting power.

Isn't that something we should relegate to the vig? Or call in a replacement on if the lurking is severe? Lurker lynching in totality is a waste of momentum and daylight. No one feels any pressure and we get barely any analyticals off the wagon and interactions.

As far as public copping I'd also choose myself but if I were getting private results I'd pick Reyweld. I don't see town-blindness as a definite towntell given how carefree he played as scum in nostalgfia.

why are any of you assuming that lynching a random person would give us a buncha town firms

pretty sure that was just Acio mocking/joking at Schazer's argument on post #223

You guys are taking their words a little too literally, I think
something something no fun allowed


I'm really torn though. On one hand I want to vote for lynching Schazer because their argument fucking sucks, but I'm still in the camp of "that's kind of a stupid idea" for reasons I've already said.

If we had more hours in the day I would definitely go for it. But by the time night/soft lynch rolls around I'm going to be fast asleep.

So I've kinda just resigned myself to the fact that a day 1 lynch is just not gonna happen. Still gonna be annoyed when the most silent person (read: Justice Watch) gets killed by the maf tonight and we'd be right back at square one, but I'm going to hedge my bets that there's a SK or a really gun-ho Vig laying around who'd be more willing to give us something to work with.



oh yeah and Acio my own two cents so you can get your READS or whatever:
I would honestly prefer a Coldblooded role reveal. I find myself constantly flipping between "bad" and "good" on them and I would just really like to know where the hell they stand.

bonus opinions, I have scum reads on Granola and Legendary Q based on their "trying to look helpful" attitudes and town reads on Numbers and Sai.
My opinion on Schaz is a god damn mess but they're either: third party, scum or simply an uncaring and unhelpful townie, all of which just are not helpful to the town

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

Er... I really don't have any??? Strong opinions either way on them or any read at all really, they've only made three posts, one of which is a joke, so it's pretty hard to tell at this point (maybe later in the game we'll see)

To answer your second, if it were a personal report, I'd cop seedy because I'm completely null on their posts. If it were a public cop, I'd pick you both to make sure that discussion didn't get masterminded and to get a useful clear early if you're town. I'd be willing to take the bet that a game this size would have a protective role.

Also, this, and I wouldn't be opposed to Reyweld or RL either

I'm actually pretty surprised Q has 4 votes nearing the end of the day, I wasn't expecting any wagons today to get close but here we are... I know what I said earlier about D1 voting but I'm seriously debating voting today for 'em. :P

...I mean, I can kinda get behind a Q lynch?

Again I'm about to go to bed in a moment and I don't want my vote lying around to cause a soft lynch to happen, even after they miraculously brought some information to light, (like a role claim,) that would have convinced me to unvote if I saw it while I was awake.

But uggghghgh a lot of people had opinions on them and they've had a lot of opinions of their own...

gYEAUH FUCK IT, LETS PLAY SOME MAFIA. Vote: Legendary Q

5 Hours Remain Votals

LegendaryQ - 5 (Solaris, Reyweld, Granolaman, TehPilot, BlazerC)
Numbers - 3 (Coldblooded, Palamedes, seedy)
Granolaman - 2 (Airey, Schazer)
Schazer - 2 (Sai, Acionyx)
seedy - 1 (Robust Laser)
Solaris - 1 (Jacquerel)

Abstaining - 7 (Pharmacy, awkwardcarapace, Justice Watch, SleepingOrange, Not The Author, LegendaryQ, Numbers)

With 21 players alive it takes 11 votes to hard lynch, and 6 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 5 hours, at 10pm CET on Thursday, August 23rd.

NEW Day End Countdown

If I had to public cop anyone, it would be Coldblooded, cuz she's helpful and I want to make sure we have some confirmation to rely on her. Seedy and Reyweld are good choices too. My brain says Seedy because, as Sai said, their posts feel neutral so far. My heart says Reyweld because he killed me in nostalgfia...the meta aftertaste...

ANYWAY, I'll probably be unlikely to vote before the day ends bc B U S Y.

@Sai, asking why I'd lynch NTA:

Not The Author's response to the public cop question is not great, like maybe they're going for a typing gimmick but it seemed like it was trying to dance around a real answer, and I'm just not a fan of unvoting without pursuing a new lead like they did earlier either.

If this isn't super clear I think they're trying to avoid committing on anything, but since that looks bad they're throwing a lot of words out to cover that up.

How's that look to you wrt them volunteering an answer; NTA wasn't in my direct asks

Personally keeping eye on Q and Numbers rn, they seem aligned? And the way they voted lurker and backpedaled right after seems :think emoji:-y

Scum don't usually vote together so blatantly like that, I think it's much more likely that they're anti-aligned. (One scum and one town between the two.) They're not ignoring each other enough to be scummates imo.

Between the two of them though, I think Numbers is more likely to be scum? Based on their post history I'm pretty sure that this is their first real mafia game, but that honestly makes that "I think Coldblooded is town" post feel even weirder?

Like in my experience, the hallmarks of a new town player are like, making super overconfident reads D1 and getting mad whenever anyone votes for you because obviously you're town and everyone who doesn't realize that is an idiot. Whereas new scum are much more likely to play it close to their chest and do as little to draw attention as possible. Numbers falls into the latter camp hard.

Alright, here, do you have a read on Palamedes? In particular this post -

I meant that adding to another bandwagon would be a bad scum tactic, yes.

If their goal was to avoid attention D1 they could have just Not Done That without any sort of risk. If their goal was to further a D1 lynch, they would have picked either of the two wagons with 3 votes.

Palamedes, CB, Blazer opinions on this?

I... kind of see where you're going with this? I mean it's more than most people have done so far, but I don't think Reyweld is new enough to this to be completely blind. Past that, it's a sort of simple defence without any bite to it so Reyweld could have just been throwing it out knowing that there was almost no way it would be taken bad in the long run. I'm still somewhat interested in hearing the correlation between you/Airey to Numbers since unlike what both Coldblooded and Reyweld said I don't think any of you really just made a single vote and were gone otherwise (at least, not compared to anyone else) and that's the main thing that probably makes me feel weird about the entire exchange on both sides.

Speaking of Numbers, I'm not a huge fan of how they immediately buddied up to Coldblooded just now for questioning them. Vote: Numbers

(Just lost the rest of this post and am going to bed so I'll tl;dr it):
Coldblooded looks good for Numbers looking strange
Airey looks good for joining in on Acio's question time without prompting
People making no content posts and nothing else at this point make me uneasy
Q stands out for looking like he's trying to be helpful but is completely ignoring discussion topics (of which this is sort of the only major one to be fair) is weird, Q what are your thoughts on this whole Reyweld debate and related posts?

If Slorange won't be Caesar I'll do it for him. Who's being gladiatored again?

Iiiiiit honestly doesn't tell me much besides he is probably unaligned with numbers given his other post before it. Pala's a player I'm be reluctant to give a hard read on early but

Why are we all assuming a random lynch will give us a bunch of townfirms?

I think I'd give him a light townread for this, it doesn't feel like something scum would seriously be asking and I don't remember purposeful dumbtelling to be a thing pala does

thoughts on that?