RE: Murder By The Book - Night 1: No One Dies At The End
03-28-2014, 02:10 PM
Oh hey sorry workthings happened, lemme respond to Truegreen about my speculating.
So, first up: Given the known information (Cyber has vanished (either because Janitor or Commuter), Slorange claims that he used his oneshot and redirected all kills onto Cyber), all of the following are still possible:
a) Slorange is telling the truth, he's town (or at least Not Mafia) and redirected a kill onto Cyber
b) Slorange is lying, for a myriad of plausible reasons but he's not actually in the mafia
c) Slorange is lying, in the mafia, and ordered the Cyber kill because his thought patterns played out in the way I initially posited (the polite murder option).
Based on how I know Slorange, a) is a probable thing I'd see him doing, c) is a slightly less probable thing I could still see him doing, and b) is not his style at all.
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So! When I saw Daystart and Cyber vanished, something about it felt "weird" to me. The Mafia use their nightkill to help them increase their influence and control during the day phase; in a best play scenario they'd pick off the active players, the members of the lynch mob who are trying to drum up discussion and preventing people (the mafiosos) from lurking, and also people with a play history of being good town players.
Obviously, as a community plays more games together, double-guessing and triple-guessing and silly grudges and junk happens, but generally as mafia you try to kill the town leaders, or more usually the second-towniest person (because a doctor's probably protecting the town leader).
Cyber (if town, the possibility remains that he's mafia) probably didn't nail the whole scum team D1, seeing as in their three posts they voted Garuru in RVS, unvoted Garuru, and tried to get Eberron lynched at the last second. His existence generally helped the scum team, because as long as they were more active than him they could always deflect and say "lynch that lurker instead!"
If a mafia team really wants to win at the cost of a fun game, they can just pick off all the active players with nightkills, and by day prod the lurkers into mislynch after mislynch and win through Town Apathy.
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Therefore, based on everything I know about sensible N1 mafia kills, Cyber's doesn't make sense (before Slorange claimed he forced a redirect). Before the possibility of a redirection came up, the only way I could see that kill happening was if someone on the mafia team said "let's not kill all the active players, at least for N1, let's kill a lurker instead."
And the people who (in my understanding of personalities) I thought would say something like that? Mirdini and Slorange. Hence my initial suspicion of those two.
But that got me thinking. If this hypothetical Slorange/Dini-led mafia team was going to make the politest kill, wouldn't the sensible option as of March 23 (when D1 ended) have been to kill the Amos slot? Fogel was having a hell of a time trying to find someone to replace in, so if the mafia were really trying to be nice guys they would've done Fogel a favour and killed the dead slot. I could especially see Scum!Akumu being a proponent of a N1 Amos kill, as eager a beaver as he's been to get the game moving on to D2.
So, why didn't they? My initial hypothesis was that they didn't kill Amos because Amos (and by proxy, you) was/are on the scum team. It simply wasn't a practical option.
Of course, the mystery resolves itself rather neatly if Slorange is legit about his N1 movements, though it's a little vexing for me because it makes all my musing and rambling about the mafia's motivations for naught. For all I fucking know it's Granola, Eberron, Sotek, donut and Crowsy, and they decided to kill Mirdini N1 like what happens to him every other game he signs up for, except Slorange done fucked their plans up.
(03-28-2014, 12:15 AM)Truegreen Wrote: »If I am to interpret this correctly, my entrance into this contest was announced before the end of the first night. Unless my understanding of this game is off, (Which it may well be) this implies the mafia had some time to consider their choice after my introduction.
So, first up: Given the known information (Cyber has vanished (either because Janitor or Commuter), Slorange claims that he used his oneshot and redirected all kills onto Cyber), all of the following are still possible:
a) Slorange is telling the truth, he's town (or at least Not Mafia) and redirected a kill onto Cyber
b) Slorange is lying, for a myriad of plausible reasons but he's not actually in the mafia
c) Slorange is lying, in the mafia, and ordered the Cyber kill because his thought patterns played out in the way I initially posited (the polite murder option).
Based on how I know Slorange, a) is a probable thing I'd see him doing, c) is a slightly less probable thing I could still see him doing, and b) is not his style at all.
---
So! When I saw Daystart and Cyber vanished, something about it felt "weird" to me. The Mafia use their nightkill to help them increase their influence and control during the day phase; in a best play scenario they'd pick off the active players, the members of the lynch mob who are trying to drum up discussion and preventing people (the mafiosos) from lurking, and also people with a play history of being good town players.
Obviously, as a community plays more games together, double-guessing and triple-guessing and silly grudges and junk happens, but generally as mafia you try to kill the town leaders, or more usually the second-towniest person (because a doctor's probably protecting the town leader).
Cyber (if town, the possibility remains that he's mafia) probably didn't nail the whole scum team D1, seeing as in their three posts they voted Garuru in RVS, unvoted Garuru, and tried to get Eberron lynched at the last second. His existence generally helped the scum team, because as long as they were more active than him they could always deflect and say "lynch that lurker instead!"
If a mafia team really wants to win at the cost of a fun game, they can just pick off all the active players with nightkills, and by day prod the lurkers into mislynch after mislynch and win through Town Apathy.
---
Therefore, based on everything I know about sensible N1 mafia kills, Cyber's doesn't make sense (before Slorange claimed he forced a redirect). Before the possibility of a redirection came up, the only way I could see that kill happening was if someone on the mafia team said "let's not kill all the active players, at least for N1, let's kill a lurker instead."
And the people who (in my understanding of personalities) I thought would say something like that? Mirdini and Slorange. Hence my initial suspicion of those two.
But that got me thinking. If this hypothetical Slorange/Dini-led mafia team was going to make the politest kill, wouldn't the sensible option as of March 23 (when D1 ended) have been to kill the Amos slot? Fogel was having a hell of a time trying to find someone to replace in, so if the mafia were really trying to be nice guys they would've done Fogel a favour and killed the dead slot. I could especially see Scum!Akumu being a proponent of a N1 Amos kill, as eager a beaver as he's been to get the game moving on to D2.
So, why didn't they? My initial hypothesis was that they didn't kill Amos because Amos (and by proxy, you) was/are on the scum team. It simply wasn't a practical option.
Of course, the mystery resolves itself rather neatly if Slorange is legit about his N1 movements, though it's a little vexing for me because it makes all my musing and rambling about the mafia's motivations for naught. For all I fucking know it's Granola, Eberron, Sotek, donut and Crowsy, and they decided to kill Mirdini N1 like what happens to him every other game he signs up for, except Slorange done fucked their plans up.
peace to the unsung peace to the martyrs | i'm johnny rotten appleseed
clouds is shaky love | broke as hell but i got a bunch of ringtones
eyes blood red bruise aubergine | Sue took something now Sue doesn't sleep | saint average, day in the life of
woke up in the noon smelling doom and death | out the house, great outdoors
staying warm in arctic blizzard | that's my battle 'til I get inanimate | still up in the same clothes living like a gameshow
clouds is shaky love | broke as hell but i got a bunch of ringtones
eyes blood red bruise aubergine | Sue took something now Sue doesn't sleep | saint average, day in the life of
woke up in the noon smelling doom and death | out the house, great outdoors
staying warm in arctic blizzard | that's my battle 'til I get inanimate | still up in the same clothes living like a gameshow