The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

also I don’t wanna rolefish but I went over tehpilot’s posts and I don’t know what the hell in the like 10 posts he made is supposed to do with magic bagging. like it’s fine to not answer but is something ACTUALLY there

also I’d be fine with Schazer gettin lynched too. don’t wanna lynch RL rn after mislynching a newish player yesterday...no real reason just feels eh
btw RL people are not...getting mad at you but I understand it can be really stressful to get pressured and can feel like being ganged up on...anyways idk I want you to participate but remember to step away if it’s stressing you out too much

i'm gonna look at the votes situation first thing here before my vig/cop question.
ugh that blazerc situation was so weird but i'm still convinced that the whole thing as scum would be a galaxy brain level move.
People on both lynches were nola, solly, blazerc, jacq, and pilot. and like, odds are somebody here is scum, right?
Pilot I was inclined to generally agree with but then reading through a few of their posts over I realized I really only like, halfway do? Like, I do agree that some of Solaris's voting stuff was weird, but then looking at the context of like 'they're prodding without really giving much elaboration' which looking at context i was like 'well it's brief but it seems more attempting to be to the point than just devoid of information altogether'.
My yargling from yesterday means I should be less inclined to distrust them now but I was looking through again and noted that like, every time Solaris comments on scumreads on them, they are dismissed as jokes. Every time. There is not a single time that Solaris makes a post that has reference to a vote or FoS on them that it is responded to in any way other than largely 'lol', or sometimes a brief note on they think it just isn't worth their time. Which can be dismissed as personality but I don't know about that. I don't like it. AC as scum woulda made them more sus but that obviously didn't happen.
Jacq has made in-depth posts that like, feel real genuine to me in general. Aggressive often, but like, even when I don't like being on the receiving end, I can absolutely conceded that being aggressive is probably just good practice. Can't get info unless people give you info. Or, y'know, unless you're a cop, but you'd have to tell me if you were a cop. Anyways this plus the claim that Jacq got targeted leads me to believe that they're a force for good.
And then I kept trying to form an opinion on Granolaman but then by the time I get to the next post any thoughts of him fizzle away as if they weren't ever there..... They're all so empty.

So for a one-shot cop there's part of me that's like 'I would say coldblooded, to confirm them as legit as well as adding more credibility to the implications of their claim', but also maybe solly, which would color all sorts of things in various directions. And also confirm if deflection or confidence.

But you know another way to confirm deflection or confidence? Murder. If I had a vig, Solaris would honestly be pretty high on my list. Because there's a whole host of people, but not an overwhelming host people, pointed in that direction and I just, I just want to know.
BlazerC also went through my mind because while I feel they probably aren't scum, I haven't ruled out them being not town. The kind of not town that you wouldn't want to lynch. I don't play enough mafia setups to know how likely Jesters even are but, y'know. I don't hold much weight to this option I just felt the need to declare it as something that I considered.
alt alt option is granolaman a weird choice here just for being so aggressively null a read

[bUnvote[/b].
I agree with seedy tbh I didn’t actually want to lynch RL after any of those posts but please keep contributing stuff ,p

re: colors: i got overexcited and did mess colors up (i was going to put myself as green obviously :p and then changed my mind)

im! not actually good at votal analysis

pala you do have a good point about beru and slorange, especially beru i think? i am definitely like, allowing my reads to interfere with any sort of part of this where i Say Facts Instead

I think that it makes sense for mafia to target Jac because literally no one has suspected him as scum the entire game? you're right that he could be the serial killer but i have, some suspicions, on that, currently

Oh whoops I totally missed daystart. I'm gonna eat something but then I'll be back with words.

So not saying the blood is related to me or anything but someone did try to shoot me last night only to fail. I kind of had it coming but still a dick move.

eating my breakfast and doing a quick work related task and then will read thread

So Jaq was targeted by mafia, cool.

Multi Votal

Airey - 3 (Solaris, TehPilot, Coldblooded)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, Palamedes)
Numbers - 1 (Schazer)
Robust Laser - 1 (Numbers)
Not The Author - 1 (seedy)

Abstaining - 9 (LordlyHour, Granolaman, Robust Laser, SleepingOrange, Sai, Airey, Not The Author, beruru, Jacquerel)

With 17 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 89 hours, at 5pm CET on Thursday, September 13.

Day End Countdown

what did i miss that confirmed jacq town

So not saying the blood is related to me or anything but someone did try to shoot me last night only to fail. I kind of had it coming but still a dick move.

eating my breakfast and doing a quick work related task and then will read thread

So Jaq was targeted by mafia, cool.

Ok so either Sol was just assuming Jaq was the mafia target before i said i was attacked last night OR he knew i was attacked last night cause he is the SK like i have been saying all along and he targeted me last night not knowing it wouldn't work.

Vote: Solaris

So under the assumption that the mafia did not target me since i have not made myself look good and seeing as how w/e the blood is saved? both me and jaq has not given us much information to work off. all i have is its pretty much confirmed sk targeted me while mafia targeted jaq. and some shitty reads.

Solaris - SK and wants me dead.
Jacquerel - town confirmed since mafia shot
Numbers - 50/50 bad vote but seems more newbish then scum
Coldblooded - town, saw jaq get attacked
Schazer - leaning scum, calls out number on bad vote but dosnt vote only to come back and vote
x1372 - leaning scum, i really dont like first post of the day
Robust Laser -?? dosnt like early game? but might fluff posting to throw town off?
beruru - no read yet not enough post

i forget how to color stuff as well

Granolaman - our recently townfirmed Day 2 lynch (who you voted for) considered you the most likely to be scum of the people voting for the day 1 lynch (also not a scum faction lynch). Please explain what makes him wrong about this, and rank the following players in order of scumminess: TehPilot, BlazerC, Jacquerel, Solaris, Coldblooded, seedy, Palamedes, Robust Laser

He's arguably not wrong. From a votal analysis perspective I look horrible. If he thought I was actually scum though he sure as hell didn't confront me about it. That was half the reason I wanted him dead: he made all these gestures at people who might be scum but didn't follow up on anything. Even now that I know he's town his reads still look like crowd-pleasing filler rather than anything analytical.

From your list:
Town [CB, Jacq, Sol]
Town* [seedy, Pala]
Lite-town [BlazerC]
Null [TehPilot]
Scum? [Robust Laser]

*I suspect these two are town but they live in my perpetual blindspot

RL's doing an AtE here and while I don't think anyone here would fake one it certainly doesn't win any town points with me.

Airey was definitely the SK shot and the SK continues to be a-OK in my book. Keep doing the lord's work and smite the lurkers fish-friend!

Actually @Airey how did you survive getting shot? You aren't another walrus are you? Also if you think Solaris is the SK why are you voting for them instead of one of your scum reads?

Vote: Airey

@Schazer: don't take this as a threat but do you want to die?

on a scale of 1 (shoot me now you cocktease) to 10 (over my dead body if town knows what's good for it)? I'd say about a 4, but not via daykill or lynch thanks

Granolaman - our recently townfirmed Day 2 lynch (who you voted for) considered you the most likely to be scum of the people voting for the day 1 lynch (also not a scum faction lynch). Please explain what makes him wrong about this, and rank the following players in order of scumminess: TehPilot, BlazerC, Jacquerel, Solaris, Coldblooded, seedy, Palamedes, Robust Laser

He's arguably not wrong. From a votal analysis perspective I look horrible. If he thought I was actually scum though he sure as hell didn't confront me about it. That was half the reason I wanted him dead: he made all these gestures at people who might be scum but didn't follow up on anything. Even now that I know he's town his reads still look like crowd-pleasing filler rather than anything analytical.

From your list:
Town [CB, Jacq, Sol]
Town* [seedy, Pala]
Lite-town [BlazerC]
Null [TehPilot]
Scum? [Robust Laser]

*I suspect these two are town but they live in my perpetual blindspot

RL's doing an AtE here and while I don't think anyone here would fake one it certainly doesn't win any town points with me.

Airey was definitely the SK shot and the SK continues to be a-OK in my book. Keep doing the lord's work and smite the lurkers fish-friend!

Actually @Airey how did you survive getting shot? You aren't another walrus are you? Also if you think Solaris is the SK why are you voting for them instead of one of your scum reads?

Vote: Airey

Well i wasn't supposed to live and neither was the SK but i am guessing because someone or something did something with blood my bait to kill SK has now failed so that is all out the window.

Plan and simple i want SK dead over scum because i know they can win with scum so the difference between then is moot and just an extra death per night which is not helping town at all.

Yeah Airey I gotta say with two kills flying every night, it seems pretty damn likely that there's a scum and/or SK bulletproof role running around. If you're telling the truth here it would mean that there's multiple town bulletproof roles that both got shot at in the same night, and uh, I'm pretty skeptical of that honestly.

Plan and simple i want SK dead over scum because i know they can win with scum

????????????????????????????????????????

?????

Uh, Airey, I don't blame you for not noticing but I didn't either, but if your "Solaris is the SK" theory runs on "SOMEHOW they knew somebody got shot" then uh

Also hey all what the fuck's good, Jacquerel got shot at in the night, which isn't exactly a 100% clear in a game with an SK running around but I still feel pretty good about him.

so airey is the blood thing you or not? im extremely unclear on what you're saying here

what actually happened to you last night lol?

so airey is the blood thing you or not? im extremely unclear on what you're saying here

what actually happened to you last night lol?

I have no idea what who did the blood thing but last night i was shot which was my plan because if i died to a night action i take who ever killed me with me to the grave. now i can only assume the blood thing prevented all kills because otherwise i have no idea how i, jaq and the sk survived.

now i can only assume the blood thing prevented all kills because otherwise i have no idea how i, jaq and the sk survived.

Nope, the kill on Jac definitely went through, so it wasn't the blood that prevented the kills last night.

If your goal was to get shot at in the night, why would you roleclaim as a bomb then?

How exactly do you know for a fact that you got shot at last night, but not why you survived?

now i can only assume the blood thing prevented all kills because otherwise i have no idea how i, jaq and the sk survived.

Nope, the kill on Jac definitely went through, so it wasn't the blood that prevented the kills last night.

If your goal was to get shot at in the night, why would you roleclaim as a bomb then?

How exactly do you know for a fact that you got shot at last night, but not why you survived?

Well the message i got was that i was killed in the night and my attacker died with me, then at day start i am not dead and neither is anyone else so i can only assume it has something to do with the blood as i cannot think of any other reason why.

Really tehpilot, you need me to spell it out for you?

I switch into the game, read through everything, recognize that there's nothing stopping the lynch going through, and ask the soon-to-be deceased a big old list of questions, hoping to get something from him that will give us something to work with. You then say something along the lines of "let's end this" and add an additional vote, with at least some implication that you thought it was a hammer or would shortly be followed up with one, BEFORE he gets a chance to answer. There is 0 situation I can see where this action is pro-town. Even if whatever he has to say is of no interest to you, it COULD be of interest to the rest of the town. You attempting to shut the door on such questioning could easily be interpreted as scum attempting to end the day before we could extract any more information from a soon-to-be known town source, and even in the most charitable light it's a net negative to shut down a discussion like that. So yes, with that for context, if you have an explanation as to why you made that decision, I wouldn't mind hearing it.

I wasn't getting into your completely out of nowhere hint about your role, but since you brought it up, under what circumstances would you think that was a pro-town decision? Mirdini made it very clear that a massclaim would be a bad idea for town, and unless I'm remembering incorrectly, you were under no pressure at the time in any way that should have caused you to drop something like that to try to protect yourself.

For now, I'm quite happy to leave my vote where it is. But if you could throw out your top 3 scumreads and top 3 town reads with a bit of explanation, I'd appreciate it.

But anyway. Granola's answer there was a little enlightening. Quick follow-up questions for granola.

1) If you were 100% sure of the identity or someone who isn't on the scum team but is a killing role, would you want to lynch them right away or continue the focus on hunting the scum team?
2) You seem to have the two biggest scumreads on RobotLaser (your answer to my last question) and Airey (your current vote). Who do you believe is most likely to be coaligned scum with RobotLaser, or with Airey? For the sake of this question, assume they are not coaligned scum.
3) Did the aC and blazer situation yesterday, including blazer's claim and subsequent offer to be lynched and use their power, make you feel better or worse about blazer with regard to your light town read on them?

My own thoughts on the talk of night actions, serial killers, and the like.

Our primary focus should be on finding and lynching the scum faction. I am not saying that if there is a serial killer and we're sure who they are we don't lynch them. But I am saying that focusing on hunting a serial killer instead of the grouped scum faction is a recipe for disaster.

We only get a limited number of lynches, and ... whatever happened that presumably prevented all kills last night is unlikely to repeat. If we waste a lynch focusing on a potential serial killer, we fail to have votes an patterns that lead to figuring out who is on the scum team and who might be co-aligned. The scum faction benefits doubly from the rest of us as a group focusing on a serial killer - not only can it potentially take the heat off them today, but it also gives them an excuse for their votes on townies if we were to accept them under the guise of hunting the serial killer. While, again, if we lynch a SK incidentally to hunting the scum faction I'd be ecstatic, but I'm personally going to be VERY suspicious of any votes made under the guise of targeting a SK.

On the subject of claims and n2 targets... I'm not sure where to go with that. A claim that Jacq was targeted is interesting, and airey's claim of having been targeted even more so. And... WHY... would you make that claim Airey? In what world, if said claim is true, is it GOOD for a role like that to be made public? What's your endgame here? Like, I'm trying to think of a situation where a townie would trueclaim that and have it be pro-town, and I'm drawing a complete blank. I'd say it sounds like scum trying to avoid getting targeted on a following night (again?) by the SK, but that sounds almost too obvious.

1) It largely depends on who they're killing. If for example, they were shooting at lurky low-content players, I would be more than happy to leave them be since it saves me the headache of having to deal with the lurker-lynching argument that always crops up. I suspect now that a significant portion of the scumteam is lurking and anyone who's diverting personal resources to pressure them out is acting in town interest.

2) That's a difficult question to answer because neither of them have had much interaction with the rest of the playerbase yet. I haven't done a scan of who they've all interacted with yet (remind me to do this please!). RL actually isn't one of my biggest scumreads (he was just the lowest of that grouping) just scum-likely and moreso if Airey flips town. I had Sai as my top scumspect (lurking, but just verbose enough to throw off the SK) before Airey spoke up but don't have any obvious ties between him or either of Airey or RL at the moment. NTA, and Jwatch/beru are also worth keeping an eye on.

3) Blazer got his initial townread cuz I thought he was the subject of a mislynch campaign from Acio and AC and from having a decently town uncontested role claim. He moves down to light because AC wasn't trying to intentionally mislynch him but his claim and defense were still pretty good.

Really tehpilot, you need me to spell it out for you?

Forgive me not picking up on the context immediately. I appreciate your thorough response and explanation, just not the sort of tone this line gives off. I would rather not get heated about the game.

It doesn't look great and was a semi-thoughtless action, you are right, you're welcome to hold that against me. #619 is my rationale, I don't have anything else to offer on that front.

I have my concerns about your insistence on this, though:

I wasn't getting into your completely out of nowhere hint about your role, but since you brought it up, under what circumstances would you think that was a pro-town decision? Mirdini made it very clear that a massclaim would be a bad idea for town, and unless I'm remembering incorrectly, you were under no pressure at the time in any way that should have caused you to drop something like that to try to protect yourself.

In what regards was my purported hint near massclaim level of information divulgence? I would think anything I've said so far about my role or knowledge of game information is far less impactful on the subject of damaging claims than what has been said by Jacquerel / Coldblooded / Airey with their info drops today.

But if you could throw out your top 3 scumreads and top 3 town reads with a bit of explanation, I'd appreciate it.

I'm going to exclude Jacquerel, Coldblooded (top two townreads), and Airey (top scumread) in this since I think their current standing and reasoning is plain as day, and you probably want a deeper reply than that. I have a good read on Seedy at the moment. Good posts, good pressure on other avenues while the aC lynch was progressing. Beyond that, I was a fan of the BlazerC and Acio slots before their replacement. That's up for review with you and Lordly now in the driver's seat, but I am content with believing those slots do not necessarily belong to scum.

Scumside: don't like Numbers or NTA. Both are low postcount with little committal action. I do not pick up on any strong interactions with other players from them; it feels dodgy.

I did express in the past I was not a fan of Solaris; I feel this less with their posting behaviors in late D2 and today and following aC's flip. Airey's actions also do not support a world that contains scum Solaris either. Beyond those three, Schazer is the most aggravating of my uncertain reads.

Other misc. thoughts: the push on RL early this day was backed by my strong townreads; RL's response to pressure feels genuine enough emotionally it doesn't contribute to a scumread on them. Granola looks weird on votes in a vacuum, but I don't get scum vibes from their posts. Withholding opinions on Pala and Slorange until I finish rereading the thread.

--

Also can I reiterate that Airey's tunneling on the SK is weird as hell? Like damn. Post #638 makes me think it could be coming from an uninformed stance, but it's beyond uninformed weird.

Also I don't buy the explanation offered where Airey, Jac, and Solaris all apparently were supposed to die but didn't. CB and Airey are offering different explanations for a survival mechanism and both can't be right. It's too convoluted for me to believe at a glance. Occam's Razor, etc etc.

Mega Votal

Airey - 4 (Solaris, TehPilot, Coldblooded, Granolaman)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, Palamedes)
Numbers - 1 (Schazer)
Robust Laser - 1 (Numbers)
Not The Author - 1 (seedy)
Solaris - 1 (Airey)

Abstaining - 7 (LordlyHour, Robust Laser, SleepingOrange, Sai, Not The Author, beruru, Jacquerel)

With 17 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 82 hours, at 5pm CET on Thursday, September 13.

Day End Countdown

I do not believe that all kills were blocked last night by an effect which blocks all kills because I saw a beautiful creation die in my arms last night.

Airey claims that he got the flavour of his role working but then in the morning, not the mechanics, but that just sounds.... hard to believe? Especially because it is inconsistent with both what Coldblooded reported and what I read in my topic also.
Especially because my might flavour mentioned all of the blood being there already, and that it was already there before any night actions I am aware of happened at all!
Dini isn’t that much if a bastard, I think.

What is easy for me to believe is that at least one scum player has a bulletproof effect or extra life, doesn’t want to get shot by the sk at night, and really wants us to lynch the sk and not mafia.

This is compounded by my admittedly very weak meta belief that if Solaris was the Serial Killer and wanted to shoot a lurker night one then she wouldn’t have picked Pharmacy, but I wouldn’t put a lot of money on that one.

Finally, in what world would a town bomb ever say so? Why would you ever do that? We do not believe that any of the people we know of with guns so far are town and just because they didn’t kill you once doesn’t mean one of them won’t try again!
Maybe I’m missing something obvious here but surely a real town-aligned bomb shouldn’t reveal ever because your ideal purpose is to get shot by scum and die, revealing because you got protected from a kill makes people less likely to shoot you, which is explicitly the opposite of what you want as a town player.
Please explain your utterly needless claim to me i’m a way that makes sense for town because I just do not get that at all.
Vote: Airey