Nostalgfia - GAME OVER SCUM WIN

Pharms I have several theories but I want to know what you think. Occam's Razor is that you're scum, but if your point of view is different then you need to have a better explanation for the results.

@Granolaman. Well, this isn't a bastard game but there might be more than one bus-driver, which tends not to have the most simplest results. I hadn't targeted RL in any of my days tho.

Is the bomb disposable. Or it just has to be used in order to be non-roleblocked.

I think if you've been bombed you have to be doc'd to be unblocked? I'm on my phone so I can't double check the description

@Granolaman. Well, this isn't a bastard game but there might be more than one bus-driver, which tends not to have the most simplest results.

a. how are you sure enough about the existence of one busdriver that you're saying there might be another, and

b. why would one bus-driver not be enough to flip things around? why do there need to be two?

I think if you've been bombed you have to be doc'd to be unblocked? I'm on my phone so I can't double check the description

yeah that's what the items description suggests

Mirdini I'm pretty sure busdriver/redirector theories have been thrown around and/or validated plenty in the past two game days?

Pharmacy I feel eh on but her reaction feels sort of legitimate and I wouldn't be surprised if a scum busdriver redirected Pharmacy and one of their more suspected targets.

Pharmacy who did you target, if not RL?

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SpoilerI'm super busy for the rest of the weekend so I may not be as present as usual

Pharms, Pala, Dini without going into reasoning would y'all give a percentage likelihood that RL's results were tainted by a scumdriver?

Well, assuming there is one busdriver, there is a ~36.26% chance that one of Pharmacy, Mirdini and I were busdriven with someone else.

3/14 chance for yes on first pick

• 2/13 chance for yes on 2nd pick: ~3.29 % chance
  
• 11/13 chance for no on 2nd pick: ~18.13 % chance

11/14 chance for no on first pick

• 3/13 chance for yes on 2nd pick: ~18.13 % chance
  
• 10/13 chance for no on 2nd pick: ~60.43 % chance

Discluding the chance that two of us were switched with each other (which wouldn't change anything), there is a 36.26 % chance. This doesn't take into account other things like multiple busdrivers (which is hopefully not a thing) and personal preference of the scum.

i also will really really hope that there are not multiple busdrivers

I targetted seedy last night.

I am going on vacation in two days and will be gone for a week, with little or not internet...

Pharms, Pala, Dini without going into reasoning would y'all give a percentage likelihood that RL's results were tainted by a scumdriver?

honestly I'm awfully tempted to go into reasoning here but I'll wait for the other two to chime in.

re: Pala's 'a redirection of some kind is pretty apparent at this point' yeah, sure, but it's not confirmed, so going 'there may be a second driver out there' is kinda when we're not 100% sure there's even one (and not, say, a one-way redirector or a nexus or items or some other weird thing).

It's a shame both Wheat & Sunspider are on The Big Road Trip atm because I'd also really like to hear from them at some point :/

But without reasoning and operating mostly on hunches, I'd put RL's results being tainted by scumdriver at Pretty Darn Low As In 0-10%, unless Pharms's Two Drivers theory holds water and both drivers are scum ????

Yeah well I had a concept kicking around but I dont think a driver swapping seedy and RL AND one of Pharmacy/Rayweld/Mirdini makes much sense unless there's either two scum the redirectors or a town one got accidentally involved swapping either Reyweld or Pharmacy with someone who they thought was town for protection but is secretly scum.

I do wonder why/how Pharmacy wound up with a bunch of items and whatnot though, because it reeks of redirection and I see no reason for scum to admit that they got items.

tbh I don’t think the number is 36% just because all the info so far suggests 1-way driving or Something Else but that might just be coincidence
and regardless of pure numbers likelihood, you and pharmacy don’t make strong bus-onto choices...the redirected n2 seemed to be from CSJ to a52, a claimed power role. you guys are potential mislynches or even vig targets. mafia would AVOID bussing you and one of their team. unless you think dini was the one who was switched? but even then dini really isn’t at the same priority as a claimed power role.
plus with how RL’s thing worked I don’t really know why you need to bring in a driver? pharmacy, reyweld, do you really think each other are definitely town?

man, after thinking about it, last night’s deaths were weird...considering all the inforoles...

I think Reyweld thinks I'm suspect?

I don't really know if Reyweld is scum because like he was just recently substituted in for Agen, who was kind of sparse. Plus he's doing a good job contributing to the discussion. Maybe someone should target him for tonight so we can get more knowledges. :p

I mean, we figured out that a52 and CSJ were swapped which I'd argue was a big part of lynching him over humming and hawing over his third party claim so scum might have decided to play things safe?

No...

Pharmacy didn't do anything D3, only posting at #721 and #766. Both posts are unsubstantial, with #721 giving a small amount of useless information, and #766 providing two lukewarm reads ("like third-party", "probably town?") without any explanations why they believe them. I already didn't feel great about them before, but Pharmacy's half-hearted fluff posts D3 definitely make them the most suspicious of the three. Verdict: likely scum.

Of Mirdini, Robust Laser, and Pharmacy, I believe Pharmacy would be most likely scum. While redirection could've caused this, it would be unlikely. Also, AwkwardCarapace was part of that investigation and they died? If that was the NK and they were aware of the investigation targets, they probably wouldn't do that.

Except aC was almost assuredly town, and choosing them due to not being sure about that is one of the reasons why I still feel weird about RL's role.

My ideal situation was a 'no mafia' reading. I wanted to lean more towny than scummy in general with my picks. I might be on board with the idea of Pharms being mafia, but part of me wonders if Reyweld is looking for an out in the list. But also I think I'm just a little bit "what me? suspicious??? how dare you." So I'm taking that idea pretty lightly at the moment.

Percentages please, pala and pharms

No...

Pharmacy didn't do anything D3, only posting at #721 and #766. Both posts are unsubstantial, with #721 giving a small amount of useless information, and #766 providing two lukewarm reads ("like third-party", "probably town?") without any explanations why they believe them. I already didn't feel great about them before, but Pharmacy's half-hearted fluff posts D3 definitely make them the most suspicious of the three. Verdict: likely scum.

Of Mirdini, Robust Laser, and Pharmacy, I believe Pharmacy would be most likely scum. While redirection could've caused this, it would be unlikely. Also, AwkwardCarapace was part of that investigation and they died? If that was the NK and they were aware of the investigation targets, they probably wouldn't do that.

then why did you spend all that time mathing out the likelihood of one of you getting redirected and that being the scum read origin

why make a post that took time about a theory you don't even believe is true

unless you're trying to confuse results and make yourself look busy and helpful at the same time?

I think Reyweld thinks I'm suspect?

I don't really know if Reyweld is scum because like he was just recently substituted in for Agen, who was kind of sparse. Plus he's doing a good job contributing to the discussion. Maybe someone should target him for tonight so we can get more knowledges. :p

pharmacy I'm gonna be real with you
the most likely game situation is that one of you, Reyweld, and Mirdini is scum
or RL is lying a lot
"busdrive" as an answer for what happened is much lower on the list of possibility
it's kind of a nulltell bc of your relative inexperience
but anyways the point is you should think seriously about which of these possibilities you believe in and put out a solid opinion instead of hoping night will magically bring you more answers

Assuming no town redirects last night would still make sense considering they were both known power roles and also both were carrying antidotes? So killing them off is probably a gamble by scum to get extra kills off the poisoning

@Granolaman, I'm not going to do MATH.

Well, I'm sure not scum. Mirdini invents things, I think? I feel like inventor isn't really scum-aligned but who knows what setup this is.

Anyway, I feel like Reyweld is probably the Scum among us three, but mostly on the account of how aggressive he was grilling me, a lurker who has been admittedly flaky as hell.

If Reyweld and I were scumbuddies, I feel like our arguments would make more suspicious sense, not being one-sided.