-=- Crooks Hollow III Mafia -=- Day Five? (3/21)

Crackpot theory time: gunban was probably initiated by scum?

(I'm going to be away for most of (IRL) today, my postings should pick up after that)

Hi guys

So I haven't read D2 yet, apparently there was a lot of magic-bagging and claiming? Which is weak, but I guess play how you need to play

I'll get caught up on D2 as we go along here.

Let's start things off for me with a vote: Kane for his odd vote behavior re:Pravi D1 and it looks like Town!Pala was agreeing before his untimely death

Other D1 impressions is that Dini is chatty in a way that I'm not 100% comfortable with

Oh hey also, if this is going to be mass clam pantry town, my role is completely useless!
I'm actually worse than a vanilla, discuss

Blagu blagu.

Hooray for not being dead.

I'm really sorry for dissapearing yesterday. School has been, and is continuing to be, brutal for me. I'll try to be here more though.

I'm not revealing my tracker data yet, as it could potentially be bad for town to do so. I might reveal it later today once the subject of my suspicion has spoken up, depending on what they say.

As for a vote, I'll just start with a Vote: Kane for the same reasons I stated yesterday, namely trying to kill conversation and general scumminess.

Well fuck. I guess that explains a lot. Sorry for being an idiot yesterday everybody.

I was kinda hoping that Granola would return to masonchat and share his watcher info with me if he survived the day, but his flip seems to imply that he got recruited by the scumteam on N1 and wasn't ever coming back.

hey cool palamedes is dead now I get to post this entirely uncensored

[brackets] indicate I went back and changed opinions after reading some more and was too lazy to restate entire cases with the new information in hand

probably going to end up posting a mildly palamedes-censored version of this in thread if I'm alive in the morning


Mirdini - hi town

btp (replacing Solaris) - kill this slot, reasons below

Palamedes - don't kill this slot ever but I'm sure you know that that's not necessarily information that we need to put out there

seastormjt - Feel pretty neutral on her, she's done some things that have felt reasonably town and others (like her aggroing on me d1 because 'oh no dini feels weird' and then backing off and never coming back to it as soon as I rebuffed her - to be fair the same goes for you m'dear tea but you've got yer claim n' all) not so much.

0_o - well things are happening to him one way or another tomorrow so I guess the proof's in that pudding

Cat (curiousCat) - if she doesn't actually play tomorrow just burn the slot with fire

crepuscularDissembler (seedy) - similar sentiment here except not quite so vehement because seedy doesn't have the cat history behind her. Their play this game has been functionally identical though, something to note. Also note her one post yesterday was defending granola really early. Either a huge game of cahoots or seedy was misguided town, wish I had like one more post from her so I'd have some clues to help me tell.

ColdBlooded (replacing GenetiXientist) - Mix-masons makes a lot more sense than most alternatives, and his play has felt towny. Light-medium town right now, though watch out it's dpaul n' all. to note is his figuring out the tracker's probable deal and clearing up a bunch of confusion in the process, feels like a very not-scum thing to do as I'm sure scum would've loved to revel in the confusion. Guessing mason-powers made him defend nola that solidly, plus the fact that nola presumably lied through his teeth in mason chat? Reluctance to accept mix-masons until I pressed him on it is notable I suppose.

anacreon - liiiiiiiight town. really early no-strings attached granola vote is something in their favor. Then they had like one more decent post all day and the rest was one-sentence mechanics talking. Not to mention the jump OFF granola later with 0 explanation onto a deadline vote on beru. If btp isn't scum a top contender for being the scum (if there are/were any) on the early nola wagon. Another point in favor of townanacreon is that pala's not dead when theoretical scum!anacreon could've just popped his face last night after being in the party. Then again wine ugh. So yeah settling at light town, keep an eye on the slot.

Scoffles (replacing Fragowump) - the nullest of null slots

Yewchung - either the ballsiest and luckiest guesswork claim team of all time or clear town. Pretty sure it's clear town.

calibornio (replacing Jacquerel (replacing g0m)) - two replacements makes this slot scummier than a lot of the other null slots. Which is good because I feel really decidedly meh about it. Wouldn't be a bad daykill/lynch target if it comes to that on a later day.

TehPilot - Actually decently town in my book? Would be MUCH higher but granola wasn't on the scumteam presumably until day 2, so he could possibly have mis-aggro'd Pilot-scum d1 and thus granola's really early vote on the pilot-wagon then doesn't really indicate much at all. Play yesterday was middling but townish iirc (not going back to check got enough on my plate), claim N1 is pretty neutral claim.

Boogeyman - feels pretty reasonably town, but could be scum that I'm just glazing over because I don't quite remember his posts that well. Reluctance to vote d1 would indicate something if it wasn't classic Boogeyman (and what got him lynched in the face by Acio in that one tinyhunt). [Read below's granola-wagon vote analysis for details, Boogey feels town as hell off of that]

ICan'tGiveCredit (replacing Fuzzy Pickles (Avi) ) - Can't decide whether his argumentation with granola yesterday was staged or not. To note is he was fighting granola all day but it took until granola was ONE HUNDRED PERCENT DEAD for him to vote, even after I made my strong case. Possibly scumbuddy whose staged fight got out of control who was still hoping the scumbuddy could get a suicide shot off? Actually those votes are pretty relevant hold up [after below deliberations at least light scum here]

[ADDENDUM: HOLY CRAP POST #445 KILL THIS SLOT KILL IT HARD]

----------- GRANOLA VOTES INTERMISSION --------------------

Granola (8): anacreon, btp, Yewchung, Boogey, Mirdini, beruru, Vortor, Garuru, Palamedes, seastormjt, ICan'tGiveCredit (hammer), calibornio (after-hammer hammer)

Sooooo this makes anacreon more town I think? That is a pretty damn solid vote post.

Boogey is in a weird spot but actually still feels decent enough I need to go find his votepost. [Found it #436 dang that is a town as heck vote. If there's scum in the early-day granola votes it's definitely btp (poooossibly anacreon???) and not boogey. His feels on ICGC mirror mine too g'damn]

btp is hngh because his entire case on nola was 'I don't like this guy and what he said in this one post' and his vote just sorta sat there without him really pushing it. Kinda feels like an early vote to get a scummate to back off of their statements that just never left?

"I shall keep my vote on Granolaman, simply because, as I see it, his persistence in suggesting that he is "in control of his situation" irks me. My inclination is that such an attitude cannot be beneficial to the town, regardless of his alignment, town, thirdparty, or otherwise. I have no patience for puppetmasters - at least not for those that lack subtlety.

Of course I am not urging anyone to follow my vote, it is merely a preference based on opinion and pseudo-logic. I have no definitive means of proving it is a correct decision, and I find my inclinations are often incorrect."

yeah jeez this sure is a thing. check all his posts in the game so far, it's either mechanics or talking about granola - I'd honestly say he is a lyncher for granola but if that were the case he would've won already eugh. I have no idea what to make of this slot. 3P? Most bus-tastic scum ever? Accidental hyperbus? Town????? I sort of just want it dead for clarification

anyway onwards in votes. Yewchung's clear as heck, already mentioned boogey, then the wagon on him really stagnated until I gave it a kick in the pants when we were slowly ambling towards day-end which is where things went into overdrive and get REALLY interesting. When I voted granola he had four votes on him. It took 7 to gun-ban him. Assume scum did NOT want to gun-ban him (I think I rallied the votes to keep him from exploding while he was asleep? Literally dodged a bullet there I guess). That makes beruru/vortor really freaking clear and after that everyone's less clear because they could just be scum going 'welp he can't explode time to pile on' wait wait a minute anacreon has a deadline vote down as well in btp's last votals and I'm p. sure you can't have reg and deadline on at the same time

yeah okay wow anacreon wasn't actually on granola since post #475 which was deadline vote on beru. which means the votes are actually

Granola: btp, Yewchung, Boogey, Mirdini, beruru, Vortor, Garuru, Palamedes, seastormjt, ICan'tGiveCredit (hammer), calibornio (after-hammer hammer)

which means Garuru is super-clear but uh we already knew that so not much changes I guess. Cat actually 'voted' inbetween garuru and Palamedes there but fucked up a bold tag - I don't /think/ that was intentional because it was too late to save granola from gun-ban anyway? But it's something to remember and an indicator to keep an eye on cat-slot at least.

AFTER THAT we have the latecomers' party. Palamedes is clear and then the last three get interesting. Seastorm feels terrible here. ICGC hammered which is usually a townish sign but as mentioned before his arguing with granola all day and taking THAT LONG to actually vote nola is honestly pretty damn scummy. [That just compounds my already-detailed bad feels on ICGC.] Calibornio feels similarly terrible here which makes his slot that I otherwise have really no strong opinions on somewhat scummy. Both would make decent lynch targets.

A Killer Cuppa Tea - well either you're town and you don't need to tell the town that or you're scum and you'll lie about what I have to say about you suspicion-wise. Not much of a point in giving you my read on you either way.

MathGirl277 - Felt weird but townish day 1. Day 2 sunk this read into scum hell. Starts the day off with #356 which yeah I've talked about this post already. Post #452 is a preeetty blatant wagon jump on top of ICGC after beruru had started making day-kill noises. Your vote on that wagon is fine because it's highly qualified, ICGC/mathgirl feel terrible for it, anacreon feels kinda bad but it's a deadline vote so less so. Post #505 has her poking at beruclaim with no backup or anything as well as a generic 'stop claiming people' faaaaar too late which yeah junk filler post. Then we come to post #517. If this had come AFTER the lover-claim I would say kill Mathgirl tomorrow no matter what. As it stands the post is still scummy as heck because it's 'shoot the unknown before he can say anything' as well as an implicit 'please don't shoot granola leave him alive until the end of tomorrow at the very least'. I GUESS PRETTY SCUMMY READ OVER HERE.

beruru - as much as I hate lurkbears who pull out a daykill, flail and then vanish again, that vote on granola combined with claim combined with votes on her makes beruru really fucking clear in my eyes. Town as heck.

Vortor - woulda put him into 'null, killable' category but then he voted nola into gun-ban range assuming deadline votes and regular votes can coexist (and I'm pretty sure to everyone's knowledge re: votals at the time). that's a legit major boost to towniness for 'im, keep him around, he's very probably town.

Garuru - same deal as yew and by putting nola into gun-ban assuming anacreon's deadline vote overrode their regular vote yeah that pair is suuuuupertown.


okay so to wrap things up I guess I'll gather people up

Lynch The Fuck Outta: Mathgirl, ICGC, btp

Lynch The Fuck Outta If They Don't Talk More/Do Town Things: seedy, Cat, calibornio, seastorm

Possibly Lynch But Not Before The Above: ScofflesFragowump, TehPilot, anacreon, (Coldblooded - after the first 3)

Don't Lynch i.e. clear as fuck town: beruru, Vortor, Yewchung, Garuru, Boogeyman, Palamedes

You're not in any of these categories because I see five scenarios tomorrow that all majorly skew your alignment in my book:

A. You're town, Kane is town. Beruru shoots kane tomorrow, you die, you're dead & clear (kane is clear).

B. You're town, Kane is scum. Beruru shoots kane tomorrow, no kill because of your ability, kane is lynched, kane flips scum, you're clear as hell.

C. You're scum, Kane is town. SOMEHOW your ability 'screws up' but still stops beru's kill (block beru's daykill somehow?), you lead town into mislynching Kane. Please shoot yourself at your earliest convenience.

D. You're scum, Kane is scum. You block beru's daykill as above, lynch kane, you look clear as fuck you hyperbussing (I will admit from a scum perspective glorious) bastard.

E. You're town, Kane is scum/town, scum do something to fuck with the day-kill and stop it, presumably Kane is lynched and flips X. Shit gets weird here and I would not be able to decide whether we're in universes C, D or E. Kane being scum in E would possibly be indistinguishable from Universe B? Which'd get really weird really fast.

obvious disclaimer/saving grace here is if flavor does a lot to indicate whether or not it's your ability doing shit or other forces screwing with the kill. In which case the above scenarios morph EVEN MORE to basically the effect of "if the flavor indicates your ability is what it says it is you're a lot clearer, if it doesn't I would be pretty goddamn wary of you though proooobably not consider lynching you at least before the people in the 'lynch the fuck outta' category".


and then a gunban happened and apparently beru's affected by it eugh

Crackpot theory time: gunban was probably initiated by scum?

if it was lynch tea when I'm gone unless he's done what he convinced us all he'd be able to do today


Vote: Mathgirl though I'd also be fine with any of btp/ICGC/possibly kane since we can't make him asplode in a teacombo

since I was too lazy to edit anything in that copy-paste three guesses as to who Palamedes decided to mason me with last night

also for those who will glaze over the wall here is the relevant tl;dr

Lynch The Fuck Outta: Mathgirl, ICGC, btp

Lynch The Fuck Outta If They Don't Talk More/Do Town Things: seedy, Cat, calibornio, seastorm

Possibly Lynch But Not Before The Above: ScofflesFragowump, TehPilot, anacreon, (Coldblooded - after the first 3)

Don't Lynch i.e. clear as fuck town: beruru, Vortor, Yewchung, Garuru, Boogeyman, Palamedes

Special 'Lynch Him If He Doesn't Die Like He Promised': Tea

Mirdini, did cha get that thing I sentcha?

Wow... that is... a wall.

Here's some roletalk now. I'm claiming less for pressure than to explain my reasons for things.

A lot of those who were planning to die/suivig today were in my townreads. In particular, Kane and Tea both felt town from my perspective. Day 3 promised to be a pointless bloodbath, and the mob mentality was going for that. Speaking up in-thread didn't seem like a good idea.

So... I used my orange to stop you from shooting.
I can't do it as much as I want. There's a time limit though. (Every three days it resets and it can't be consecutive).

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Spoiler@Pilot for the role seeming scummy. What earthly reason would scum have for preventing kills on a mass level? Or rather, why would whoever balanced the setup think "Hey, you know what scum would definitely use at night? An item that prevents townies from killing each other!" I can see why in this specific case you might feel like it was a -EV move, but I'd rather not have many deaths in a ratio that is likely not in towns favor. In general, it's not really a scummy ability.

Mirdini, did cha get that thing I sentcha?

I got NOTHING.

You're the marker that sea mentioned yesterday then I suppose

CAN WE FILL DAY THREE WITH AS MANY CLAIMS AS DAY TWO?

WE SURE AS HELL CAN TRY

this unsurprisingly makes me want to take a far closer look at Pilot's crackpot scenario

and then I realize I am looking at the partychat instead of my personal QT

okay that sure is a thing I guess btp is not someone to lynch

on the other hand it puts hellbus!beruru right back on the table yeesh wow

scum!ru makes mathgirl/credit slots look better though moreso mathgirl than credit? which would mean gun!ban governor is town as in the last game which makes more sense than scum gun banner as wonky interesting as that role would be. town gun!ban means tea is a lot less likely scum than I was thinking when I first saw the gun ban/pilot's theory too

Vortor remains very clear and fact remains that beru didn't actually put granola into gun-ban territory just got him a vote away from it so she could've been hedging her bets either granola got back fast enough to explode and she looks really town for trying to stop it or he doesn't and there probably would've been two votes on the wagon before he got back anyway (as the garuru/cat/palamedes votes proved)

mirdini <3

Let's follow the order. I don't want to lynch ruru yet because of her interaction with my own role. Like dini said above, i'm more than willing to eat a lynch if i cant do what i say i can do. /shrug.

[19:24] TeaInTheSky lets see... btp > anacreon > ssjt > > mathie > credit > pilot > cat/scoffles/seedy/dpaul depending on situation by then.


Vote: Anacreon

I think Anac chose Pala for her role power... (this is a theory)

I could've saved two people. (this is a theory)

If anac didn't, I still could've saved Pala (NOT A THEORY)

I know this because I am the amp doc. I saved the WRONG FUCKING PERSON (garuru)

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Spoiler

Let's follow the order. I don't want to lynch ruru yet because of her interaction with my own role. Like dini said above, i'm more than willing to eat a lynch if i cant do what i say i can do. /shrug.

[19:24] TeaInTheSky lets see... btp > anacreon > ssjt > > mathie > credit > pilot > cat/scoffles/seedy/dpaul depending on situation by then.


Vote: Anacreon

...I meant Vote: ssjt of course. Anacreon being dead n' all

I think Anac chose Pala for her role power... (this is a theory)

I could've saved two people. (this is a theory)

If anac didn't, I still could've saved Pala (NOT A THEORY)

I know this because I am the amp doc. I saved the WRONG FUCKING PERSON (garuru)

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Spoiler

*facepalm*

CAN WE FILL DAY THREE WITH AS MANY CLAIMS AS DAY TWO?

WE SURE AS HELL CAN TRY

Wait, what's an amp doc?

Is that like a doc who also amps their target? Because how would you even amp a tracker?

we probably
don't need to know that right now

hi cat hi have any other opinions

maybe one on my vote: beruru

(seriously can we stop claiming for absolutely no goddamn reason

and maybe just lynch beruru)

ACtually, i've just had a thought. If amp doc means you amplify your target's power, tagret me tonight.

the claims

the claims

the claims