The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

So I'm gonna keep running with my gut and Vote: Sai

He's been pledging support towards mainstream lynchees but has conveniently avoided showing up on the wagons at dayend.  He did cast a vote for Airey, but it was back at the end of D2 where there was no chance of the AC wagon turning around.  He was pursuing BlazerC long after the momentum had turned which keeps feeding into my suspicion that Blazer was an attempted mislynch setup from Acio and that we just lynched the wrong participant of that push.  He only stopped after extracting a roleclaim from Blazer and pushing Numbers for reveals feels like more info-fishing to me.  (I'm of the opinion we don't need Numbers' targets either; less chance of scum predicting them without)

Like, the Blazer wagon was the only thing I feel Sai's put any real pressure or effort into. Everything else has mostly been weightless words or stray floaty votes.  

Also I'm still processing my feelings on it, but part of Airey's ploy seemed designed to move either myself or TehPilot into an accidental mislynch and Sai seemed pretty ready to hop into that.

@Pilot:  What are your thoughts on me?

Mentally I've had you in the lurker read (null) bin. You haven't posted too much (which I can forgive for the reasons you've just now laid out) and there isn't much in the way of meaningful interaction from other players to put any of your posts into context for me. I have been rereading and catching up but haven't been in a spot to write a super long post. Been phone playing since this day began.

Your later posts today definitely pick up the prior slack I felt but I'll see how things fare when I get to the full analysis. But that aside, quick thing or two --

(Should be good for tonight and forward to desktop post again. See you all with that in seven-ish hours?)

-- Some of your points against me I'm not seeing - where have I poked x1372 (the only other person to have a vote on me)? I would not consider my reply to their post a poke, nor do I even think anything concretely suspicious of that slot. x1372 is playing very town and their predecessor I had a good read on, so not sure where you're drawing that from.

And in case it wasn't clear in #648 and now that we have additional alignment forms to work with:

Definitive Town: Jacquerel, CB, Granola
Town: Solaris, x1372, Seedy
Light Town: Lordly
Up for review: Slorange, Pala, Laser
Scumreads (from super slight to bad): Beruru, Numbers, NTA, Schazer

I'm comfortable putting beru at the very top of light scumread because the Granola tunneling just looks bad in hindsight. Obviously subject to change. Laser is in review as well since I only noted the early daystart's pressure on them and now we have more to look at. Also want to check the low volume posters against prior reads now that Airey is dead scum.

--

I'm favoring Granola as a town dayvig over the possible scum gambit world. Don't want to entertain that topic for much longer today since I think it's a distraction against pursuing a second lynch.

The point raised that it is not a definite clear is correct, but I feel strongly one way about it. I also thought Granola was town with a bad voting record earlier in the day so yeah. Fits my view of the gamestate better.

Also I'm still processing my feelings on it, but part of Airey's ploy seemed designed to move either myself or TehPilot into an accidental mislynch and Sai seemed pretty ready to hop into that.

What makes you say this?

Some very exciting stuff happened while I was at work it seems.
Hopefully I will be able to make some kind of more useful post tomorrow but I'm going to be travelling this evening and then immediately after that I am entering the wedding zone so unfortunately, you might not see a lot more from me.

I was also confused about how Airey correctly identified Sol as his killer. Lucky guess?
That doesn't make me feel like Solaris is scum because that doesn't make any sense, but does leave night one's kill and night two's absence of kill unaccounted for if there is a serial killer.
Not much point musing about it really but I'm still like "huh, is the Siren actually an SK?", although, someone's soul did get sucked out.

Poke was probably a bad word, it just seemed that outside of (from my memory) answering one or two basic questions from other people it seemed like the only times I saw more elaborate responses were with your exchanges with x today. To be fair it was mostly just really weird (albeit possibly coincidental) that besides that you just asked people to look into me without doing so yourself more or less out of nowhere.

Also I'm still processing my feelings on it, but part of Airey's ploy seemed designed to move either myself or TehPilot into an accidental mislynch and Sai seemed pretty ready to hop into that.

What makes you say this?

Like putting one of us into softlynch territory would involve pulling enough votes off of airey that's be difficult to track with the airway wagon whited out? Sai seemed more inclined to the "make a backup" plan than the "airey is bluffing" idea.

I really haven't been adequately contributing to this game, and I don't expect this post will be an adequate one but at least it will be a contribution. It's certainly a charitable assumption to think that I've been busy this game day, but as anybody who's been following the forum activity knows I keep coming back and reading the thread, I just haven't been able to come with anything particularly Salient to say. I'm pretty much just going to start by getting my current feelings on all the players still alive on paper and hope that gives me some ideas of where to go from now. There's a part of me that's actually kind of grateful that I didn't pipe up before Airey died, because I was kind of tempted to leave him alone for a little while and follow up on other than chance I liked today, and that would have been a great look on me when he flipped.

Solaris: her tone is so glib that I genuinely can't get any kind of bead on her. That doesn't throw up huge flags for me because it definitely seems in character, but it means I'm going to have to wait until we have some more mechanical results to compare to the suspicions and votes she's put down to know what I think about her. A completely null read for the moment, which I don't mind too much considering how many reads in other directions we've got and how much time is left in the game. This all became especially true after her claim of a killing roll.

Jacquerel: Jac has been playing pretty solidly town and keeping the discussion pretty active and doing a lot of prodding and anti lurker activity and all sorts of things that made me pretty inclined to believe they're town until some more inconsistencies start coming out, and that was before they were one of the primary drivers of suspicion and lynching against someone who did in fact turn out to be mafia and who might otherwise have been able to defer their lynch with a fake claim.

Numbers: numbers is someone I need to focus on more strongly on my next reread, I feel like I may be getting a lot of what I remember about them confused with what I remembered remember about awkwardCarapace. They're doing a lot of things that make me uncomfortable, like presenting facts and then coming to the opposite conclusion I would based on it and flailing a bit in response to suspicion, but as I think several other people have said, that reads just as easily as inexperienced play as anti town play. Wouldn't mind lynching or vigging them at some point as an alternative to doing the hard work of assessing that out. Apparently they claimed at some point and I missed or forgot it? Got to reread day one better it seems.

Coldblooded: with the exception of a couple of times in early day one that she raised my eyebrows, cold blooded has been near the top of my town reads, and then there was the claim of a protective role who protected my other strongest Town read so for the moment everything seems pretty cut and dry here. If she is scum, I'm very impressed! And kind of stupid I guess, but I knew that about me.

Schazer: so, I know schazer is town, which means that they can pretty reasonably believe that I'm in town. It helps that I also know that schazer, schazer, schazer, and schazer are town as well. Given the way the two of us have been playing this game, I can definitely understand why there would be people so interested in verifying that claim or otherwise just offing us, but I promise it's not necessary. For completely flavor focused reasons though, I'd selfishly prefer if we lynch them instead of me when it came time to figuring that out. Sorry buddies!

Seedy: Seedy is an interesting one because most of the lynches that she's really been invested in are ones that I have not been, and most of her suspicions are ones that I have not shared, and most of what she's been doing I don't particularly agree with or like a great deal, but the way she's been going about doing those things has suggested to me town mindset and motivation, so for now she is on the low end of my town leaning list even if I'm very surprised at her level of activity today compared to previous days and previous games she's been in and her general antipathy towards lurkers.

TehPilot: I'm pretty sure I'm somewhat suspicious, but I'll be damned if I can remember what for right now, or even anything that they've said all day 3 and I know they've been in the conversation. They're going to have to be another one that I focus heavily on in my reread, if only to refine it and remind myself.

Wow, you genuinely can't tell with the exception of schazer that any of these are original thoughts that I had since they look so similar to things that other people also posted. Sorry! Part 2 of this post coming tonight after work, so in T minus 6 hours or so. If I post this in the thread, maybe I'll be too ashamed not to follow up on it.

Other lynches* in paragraph one, not other than chance. Jesus Christ, proofread.

I personally am extending Seedy some credit on contribution today because I have sucked them into my wedding zone orbit.

Total Votals

Schazer - 3 (Not The Author, Solaris, TehPilot)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, Palamedes)
Not The Author - 1 (seedy)
Granolaman - 1 (beruru)
Sai - 1 (Granolaman)

Abstaining - 8 (SleepingOrange, Coldblooded, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer, Sai)

With 16 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 28 hours, at 4am CET on Friday, September 14.

New Day End Countdown

I will wait to decide if I’m going to vote for someone else if/when schaz comes back as I think they will? But I think that right now I’m feeling nottles the most after? I need to look st stuff more but that’s going to be, a bit difficult for a bit lmao. At least nights going to overlap with the wedding hole.

Okay, so here's where I'm at as far as townreads go:

Show Content

Spoiler

LegendaryQ - 7 (Reyweld, Granolaman, TehPilot, BlazerC, Jacquerel, Solaris, awkwardcarapace)
Numbers - 4 (Coldblooded, Palamedes, seedy, LegendaryQ)
Schazer - 2 (Sai, Acionyx)
seedy - 1 (Robust Laser)
BlazerC - 1 (Schazer)
Granolaman - 1 (Airey)

Abstaining - 5 (Pharmacy, Justice Watch, SleepingOrange, Not The Author, Numbers)

awkwardcarapace - 9 (BlazerC, Granolaman, Coldblooded, seedy, Solaris, Palamedes, Robust Laser, Jacquerel, TehPilot)
Solaris - 2 (Airey, Numbers)
Granolaman - 2 (beruru, SleepingOrange)
Airey - 1 (Sai)
Sai - 1 (Not The Author)
seedy - 1 (x1372)
Acionyx - 1 (Schazer)
Numbers - 1 (awkwardcarapace)

Airey - 7 (TehPilot, Coldblooded, Granolaman, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Numbers, LordlyHour)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, Palamedes)
Granolaman - 2 (Sai, beruru)
Numbers - 1 (Schazer)
Not The Author - 1 (seedy)
Solaris - 1 (Airey)
Schazer - 1 (Not The Author)

Abstaining - 2 (SleepingOrange, Solaris)

That long two day fight between Solaris and Airey makes zero sense to me at all if both are scum, Granolaman and especially TehPilot jumped on the Airey wagon early on and stayed there long enough to make sure he died, so they're probably both town too. It actually seems entirely likely now that the LQ lynch on D1 had zero scum on it, and that they all intentionally stayed away from it just to fuck with us down the line.

I feel like the Numbers/Pala/Seedy trio likely has two town and one scum in it, but hell if I know which one. Feedback is welcome here.

Neither Slorange and Schazer have really done much to make me feel like reading them as town so far, but since they're each insisting that the other is town, they can both have a pass for now.

I feel like I'm leaning towards voting Nottles or Beruru right now, but let me go back and reread some stuff first.

Palamedes: as has come up a couple times before, palamedes is on the very low end of my scum suspicions list, and that's really only because their play hasn't been particularly helpful or proactive and that isn't how I possibly misremember their play being. I was rereading their conversation with tehPilot a moment ago, and it actually kind of made me wonder why pilot isn't more suspicious of me considering my play has been a lot like palamedes's and I have been tunneling pretty hard on granola man much like beru, both of which are things he said he found suspicious in other people. This is supposed to be about palamedes though, and I just don't know.

Granolaman: I can genuinely come up with a mechanically and socially plausible world in which granola is a mafia aligned day killer and bus murdered Airey since he was definitely going to die already and granola had  come up several times through several players' suspicions and he was probably going to be watched Pretty closely next. I really want that to be the world we're living in, because granola really was my current strongest scum suspicion, for pretty meager reasons, but that just seems so astronomically unlikely compared to the much more reasonable option of granola is a standard day killer and my suspicions were completely unfounded that I pretty much have to assume town for now. I'm not going to go so far as a couple of other people and call him confirmed, but if this is a scum gambit it's as masterful as it is stupid.

x1372: this is actually a slot I would love to have copped, because I felt pretty good about their predecessor's play and pretty good about x's play and pretty good about all the things they said and especially good about the likelihood of acio's reactions that led up to replacement being those of a town aligned acio, but both of the people that have occupied the slot think and play differently enough from me, and are superior enough Mafia and Hunt players to me, that I don't feel confident in my assessment of their genuineness or my own ability to analyze their arguments. I really think either of them would be able to successfully hoodwink me into voting with scum agendas, so it would be nice to have some confirmation of my positive suspicions so that I wouldn't have to second-guess everything I think about what they say so much.

Sai: Sai is gradually creeping towards the suspicious end of my no strong feelings pool, and I can't really tell if it's just because other people are starting to voice their suspicions and that's enough to sway me or if it's the fact that I always get leery of anybody agreeing with me especially if I don't have a particularly strong foundation for what I was feeling. I don't think I've played Mafia with Sai before, but his posts suggest to me another advanced enough player that I'm again worried that I could be misled and it makes me want to know more concretely about their alignment.

Robust Laser: I didn't particularly like robust lasers in activity and general unhelpfulness and unwillingness to put down concrete opinions. A lot of that was mollified following Jac's prompting. I'm actually back to not feeling great about them now that the whole event with Airey and granola has gone down, because what it mostly feels like what they did was focus on mechanical speculation and take any opportunity to potentially get off the Airey wagon.

Beruru: it's just hard to say or feel much about a slot that has, even for completely valid and fair reasons, said so little. If I tell you who you targeted last night, will you tell me what you did to me?

Not The Author: vote: not the author when you die, it'll tell me about X's alignment and Sai's and yours, and God only knows how else I'm supposed to find anything about your alignment out.

LordlyHour: pretty much just paste in everything I said about Blazer last time I talked about them. It's not like I have any more to go off of now. Do I? Have they been around today and I've forgotten them? Another thing to focus in my next reread.

SleepingOrange: Handsome. Smells nice. Poor scumhunter. 8/10 overall

Quick mechanical update, nothing happened to me last night, actual substantive post to come when it's not 4 AM and I'm not going to bed

Beruru: it's just hard to say or feel much about a slot that has, even for completely valid and fair reasons, said so little. If I tell you who you targeted last night, will you tell me what you did to me?

If you'll read further back, I mentioned in day two that someone cleaned my room on night one. I was not the subject of any actions Night 2.

[...]so actually I DID have a mechanical thing happen to me last night and it is that my entire room was super-cleaned around me in my sleep so I have some questions for what Justice Watch did to me in the small hours[...]

 found it

I see and I understand.

Carry on.

Granolaman: I can genuinely come up with a mechanically and socially plausible world in which granola is a mafia aligned day killer and bus murdered Airey since he was definitely going to die already and granola had  come up several times through several players' suspicions and he was probably going to be watched Pretty closely next. I really want that to be the world we're living in, because granola really was my current strongest scum suspicion, for pretty meager reasons, but that just seems so astronomically unlikely compared to the much more reasonable option of granola is a standard day killer and my suspicions were completely unfounded that I pretty much have to assume town for now. I'm not going to go so far as a couple of other people and call him confirmed, but if this is a scum gambit it's as masterful as it is stupid.

You echo my feelings on Granolaman pretty perfectly here. He was Actually my Strongest Scumread until just now, and It's  only because I think it'd be a Dumb Play to do as he did if he WERE Scum that that feeling has gone Sideways into confused. It could just be a Doumblebluff

With Reference to Me Being Quiet, I have Been, Mainly because my first instinct is to Hush Up and let the Professionals Work, In Case I Make a Noob Mistake. Which Is, in itself, a noob mistake, I Know.

hewwo

airey was a wolf, which is great, and granola is not a wolf, which is also great, so Unvote

the not-great thing is that i have no idea what to do now oop

i guess for now i'll vote: tehpilot because i think both x and pala are town so the wagon is #Pure

also i have no idea why schaz is the top wagon but y'all do y'all i guess

also also slorange i can't answer your question. because i don't know. yeehaw

While I'm flipping back through things, I want to bring up a thought I had driving back today: we have two claimed vigilante roles, a purported serial killer (/vig in some people's analyses?), and a vengeful townie all on the table. What's the level of death in this setup? I'm thinking on a similar train of thought when we were talking about the presence of vengeful roles in the setup. We've now the evidence countering a lot of those old suspicions - and perhaps we're in a similar situation with these roles. This is why I'm super interested to hear what Lordly has to say - having some extra perspective from that slot after it went from active to quiet would be nice.

I feel a little bit better about Palamedes on post content; not sure how I feel about vote placement/trends though.

@Slorange: you are correct in all your reasons why I would suspect you! The biggest thing you have going for yourself, in my view, is you've got content on this day and I wouldn't consider your later stuff to be continuing a tunnel on Granola. I also don't mind your reads even if I don't super agree with every one of them / they're largely agreeable overall. I also don't know exactly how to feel about you and Schazer being coaligned town when Schazer's been pinging me as off all game, but if the reality is that compelling and not worthy of reveal yet I can hold off for another day.

What about NTA's flip will tell you about x1372's and Sai's alignment? I could be convinced to move to NTA; would rather wait until Schazer says something else in the wake of Airey's death.

@RL: in post #681, you state you aren't opposed to a vote on Granola; there is also a note at the end of the post that states a lack of confidence. #719 you cast the vote as wanting to push it in the direction you support, although your post before that isn't super confident as well. Now that we have solid belief Granola is more likely town than scum, is there any vote you feel confident in?

@NTA: you mentioned in post #674 that you did not agree with the consensus town read on Slorange, and you voted for Schazer - have you come to a more developed opinion on Slorange, and how the two of them supporting each other as town plays into that?

@Coldblooded: do you think Numbers or Pala as scum is more likely? I don't really think Seedy is scum personally, and you said one of those three might be scum. My initial feeling is Numbers might be more likely scum, but I could see Pala based on position on votes maybe.

@Lordly: what made you feel Granola was scum leading up to him delivering the daykill? Any thoughts on NTA, Slorange, Sai perchance?

@Sai: who would you want to lynch instead of Schazer?

Sol claimed one-shot. I'm one-shot too. Barring miracles Lordly only gets one shot on death.  It's like equivalent to a regular vig, but more spread out.  I don't think on-death is the primary mechanical theme of the game but rather limited-use powers.  Q got 3 dowsings and 1 bullet, Reyweld had 2 teleportations.

NTA flipping scum would look good for Sai and to a lesser extent x1372.  NTA gave a hella in-depth draw down on Sai D2 that would make no sense as a scum/scum interaction.  Sai proving town in turn makes x look better for their group-thinking.  Slorange's logic is sound it's just that I think Sai is more suspicious than NTA (Sai flipping scum would also look great for NTA)

@TehPilot: not did not agree but did not understand. Slorange's not-posting-as-much coupled with my not-rereading-enough made his overall Thing not stick in my mind as much as it could, so people-who-are-not-me having alignment-read confidence was... unsettling? something like that. To his credit he appears to be one of the few people to have payed attention to li'l ole me, but at the same time that singular thing what I remember about his behavior feels like it might be some kinda long-con. My own behavior hasn't helped, but I've been over that.

@Schazer: supposing you and Slorange are both telling the truth about you and you and you and you and you, is it possible you were the SK target? something something souls eating, something more than one soul to eat something. Or, when all we have to go on is flavor, might as well make the most of what we can taste, right? Slorange, you're welcome to chime in if you can corroborate.

@Granolaman: Don't forget hidden powers as a theme. So far most of it's been bulletproofing, but Reyweld exists as precedent that it could be wackier. Theoretically, this makes Jac mechanically more likely to be town, though the specific scenario I envision raises its own complications and is likely just me conspiracy-theory-ing again.


Actual Reread Time, back shortly. hopefully.

@Pilot: Granola pretty much summed it up but yeah while there's no mechanical links between these people there's a good chunk of D1/2 interactions that would give insight, if not definitive proof, into the alignments of two people I'd like to know more about.

@Granola: I'll be honest, the biggest reason I'm on NTA over Sai is because Sai feels like more of an asset to lose on a mislynch or have in the lategame (although Sai's greater number of players interacted with does mean we learn more following their death which makes me kind of feel like switching my vote as is); I'd rather see either lynched than nobody so I'll definitely switch if it comes to that, but I just feel like there's less consequence if NTA's town.

@NTA: With the shamefully shameless poke at acio's character flavor day one aside, I really don't intend to play flavor speculation games. It doesn't seem productive, and I know that I for one as a GM delight in giving roles misleading flavors.

Well, read back through it all and it's just as I thought: trying to take in all that information at once makes everything confusing as hell

I think I'd be okay lynching Beru, Sai, or... maybe Pilot?
Can't get a bead on Seedy or Laser; leaning scum.
Palamedes keeps slipping from memory? How you doin' that.
Slorange and Schaz' wacky tango Thing is certainly A Thing, but in the absence of additional evidence and in the interest of using it to gather data, I'm defaulting to trust them for now.
Everyone else, as far as I remember, reads neutral-to-positive.

@Seedy: Earlier, you said you wanted to pressure me an' Schaz, and Airey's out the way now. Anything in particular you'd like to know?


@Solaris: Now that Airey flipped Scum, what's your read on TehPilot?

@Schazer: now that you and Granola are both "confirmed" town, who's your top three targets of choice for your own murderpowers?

EBWOP: Pala's probably fine; wrote that before going back to reread and forgot to snip it out.