Buzzfia - Party Preparations - Night 7 (10/22 live)

yeah basically i was like 'wonder if mafia would just like, off one of the two people voting for not the now confirmed townie for a vague framing scheme' and i was right and now there's TWO people who are dead and stumps!!! and i'm not feeling confident seriously people with branches i could use getting them back or like assistance from people with item duping abilities because like i need a lot more people to stump and on average people seem more likely to die without becoming arborous and that's lame

oh, dunnergy and myeth are likely Just Town, since I'm a 3p. I honestly forgot about Pala's thing/didn't think it'd keep going, but that's cool. I suppose Solaris is retroactively correct in that there sorta seem to be "two towns," although given that Pilot could joint with scum I'm not sure how much the blue color actually really means
Sunspider, is your wincon the same as Pilot's was?
people should try and give branches back to RL...also personally I'd guess that PL was the mafia kill, since scum probably interpreted the hinting about visit-masons yesterday as an inforole claim, whereas to me pilot seemed fairly lynchable?

anyways we need to kill AC probably, it's weird that mafia wouldn't shoot them given that if they're Benign and reach endgame alive then scum wins, also they are constantly getting more vote power and more mysterious unknown powers the longer we let this go on sooooo
vote: awkwardcarapace
(man, Reecer not fighting that lynch for no reason...-_-. I thought he'd at least have a lynch power that he wanted to pop off, but nooo. so annoying. everyone please fight your lynches from now on unless you have an ACTUAL reason not to.)

bid: 2 coins on G

but yeah given that 8 people have died and only 2(?) of them became stumps, I'm PRETTY SURE we're well past the point where "half of all players" was possible

Hey guys, sorry I wasn't online for the last part of day 3. Also I agree with seedy (not with the lynch thing, with the AC thing) because it is kinda weird. Also, I'll be giving my branch back to Robust Lazer tonight seeing as I forgot to last night. With that said, Vote: AC. Another thing to point out is that AC has not been using their spare vote at all, which is strange.

WELL THIS IS AWKWARD.

Is there anything I can get you fine folks?

pretty much confirmed town: dunnergy, Myeth (myeth could be a godfather but I can't say I get that vibe)

claimed miller(?)(I don't remember what Q claimed exactly): Mirdini, LegendaryQ

claimed 3p: Robust Laser, Thalia V1, Seedy, Sunspider

no claim: Numbers, Justice Watch, awkwardcarapace, Lordlyhour, [blank space], (NPC) Vending Machine

although maybe I'm forgetting a claim from Lordly since apparently he was confirmed Not Town after the a52 lynch
(not that I totally trust Sunspider, and if she doesn't die like soon that'll be pretty odd, but the information has been more or less ok so far)

Q doesn't look suuuuper great on those votals...given that we haven't gotten any scum and we're getting into lategame, we should probably try to put together scumteams...

also organized by responses:

Reecer6: F: Robust Laser | N: Thalia V1 | S: Justice Watch
RobustLaser: <this space intentionally left blank>
Thalia V1: F: Seedy | N: Amosmyn | S: Tehpilot
Numbers F: Thalia V1 | N: Robust Laser | S: Myeth
LegendaryQ: F: Seedy | N: Tehpilot | S: ProfessorLizzard
Justice Watch: F: Mirdini | N: LegendaryQ | S: Thalia V1
Myeth: F: Lordlyhour | N: Seedy | S: amosmyn
awkwardcarapace: <this space intentionally left blank>
Lordlyhour: F: Numbers | N: Tehpilot | S: Reecer6
amosmyn: F: Lordlyhour | N: Sunspider | S: none
ProfessorLizzard: F: Lordlyhour | N: none | S: Mirdini, Myeth
Dunnergy: F: none | N: ProfessorLizzard | S: Sunspider, Mirdini
Seedy: <this space intentionally left blank>
Sunspider: <this space intentionally left blank>
Tehpilot: F: awkwardcarapace | N: Justice Watch | S: amosmyn
Mirdini: F: Myeth | N: ProfessorLizzard, awkwardcarapace | S: none

uh Justice Watch put Tehpilot as suspicious, not me

(following Seedy's suggestion of starting to think about scumteams)

So if we follow the standard 25%-33% paradigm, that implies 5-7 scum members. We already know that it isn't 7 (because the game would've ended by now), and with the sheer count of 3rd parties, I'd feel comfortable pushing my guess down to maybe the 4-5 member range? Maybe even 3? If it's that low that would partially explain the lack of killed scum -- it may be that there are enough folks who aren't town but aren't hurting them, and folks who aren't proper scum but are problematic to justify that small a scumteam.

I'm gonna pull and update my list of Opinions as of last night now informed by the three flips, and also include dead people for convenience sake. That may take a bit, just by the nature of the task.

Marked-up player list with observed claims and flips

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Spoiler
Highlight = mod confirmed alignment. Light green = soft modconfirm or hard modconfirm with suspicions
Colored text = claim or confirmation from another player

Reecer6 - lynched d3, flipped town
Robust Laser - benign 3rd party stumper claim, known non-town check from Palamedes
Mirdini - mod-confirmed miller, known non-town check from Palamedes
Schazer - got Dini'd d3, flipped town
a52 - lynched d2 then killed/died n2, flipped town but suspected mimic
Thalia V1 - benign 3rd claim,
dunnergy - softconfirmed Town through Wheatlynch, possible town check from Palamedes
Numbers
LegendaryQ - miller claim, known non-town check from Palamedes
Justice Watch
Myeth - town claim corroborated by plausible town check from Palamedes
awkwardcarapace
Lordlyhour - possible non-town check from Palamedes
amosmyn - got Dini'd d3, flipped benign 3rd
Palamedes - killed n2, flipped town
___ - mysterious #16
ProfessorLizzard - killed n3, flipped benign 3rd
Solaris - killed n2, flipped 3rd
Seedy - benign 3rd claim, possible non-town check from Palamedes
Sunspider - mod-confirmed benign 3rd
Wheat - lynched d1, flipped town
Tehpilot - killed n3, flipped benign 3rd

Within reason, mechanically reasonable candidates for scum are Robust Laser, Mirdini, Thalia V1, Numbers, LegendaryQ, Justice Watch, awkwardcarapace, Lordlyhour, and Seedy.

Notes for how I got to that set of 8 + 1 people

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Spoiler
I'm willing to believe that dunnergy is a safe bet for townfirm based on the modconfirms for both them and Wheat, and Myeth with respect to Palamedes's D1 results (as in, confirmed by Pala and not just Sun) is strong enough for me to trust them, so I am not considering those two as candidates.

I'm also willing to believe the DelayedCelebrity activation from Sunspider that they are truely benign 3rd party.

I'm also ignoring ___ on the basis that I think they're a shoe-in for some sort of 3rd party or some mechanical oddity for another player.

Finally, while I'm in the list above, I'm ignoring myself for analysis due to obvious reasons, though I acknowledge that I am of the group that mechanically could be scum.

Of these folks, ignoring shenanigans, 3-5 of them should be scum: Robust Laser, Mirdini, Thalia V1, Numbers, Justice Watch, awkwardcarapace, Lordlyhour, Seedy
Colored text = claims, italics = confirmed or suggested non-town Palamedes check. As an aside, Robust Laser's and Mirdini's checks are from D1 (thus from Pala themselves), Lordlyhour's and Seedy's come from later ones described by Sunspider.

I've reread posts for most of these folks: (Opinions in underline)
Robust Laser: Weak suspicious read. We kind of just took their claim with no evidence at face value, but I'm not aware of anything actually proving they are what they say besides the Pala not-town check which doesn't say that much in this case. (basically just talks about their role and mechanic, apparently guessed the mafia would kill Lizzard?)
Mirdini: (running out of time and they've talked a lot, so just doing the read) Moderate town read. They burned basically all their lives on desperados. Unless this is one hell of a gambit or something (which to be fair is a genuine possibility), it doesn't really compute that they're scum to me right now. Either/or, not willing to lynch them right now.
Thalia V1: Strong benign 3rd read. Their claim strikes me as genuine, and I like what they've done thus far. apparently a 3rd party Messenger, pointed out something I like regarding a questionable post by Dini D2, marks Seedy friendly, marks Tehpilot suspicious.
Numbers: Moderate/weak suspicious read due to Reecer flip, re-reading, and the weirdness with them and Lordlyhour. I dunno, I know I'm flipping wildly between reads on them, but I'm struggling to decide how I feel about them. Writing my notes out made me feel bad after reading them, so... eh. If Lordlyhour is scum, I feel like they're scum, though. thinks Lordlyhour is suspicious D3, defends #16 and votes Dini due to #16 "distractions" and contributing to mislynches D3, marks Myeth suspicious, marks Thalia V1 friendly, thinks Reecer is town against consensus with no apparent justification.
Justice Watch: Weak suspicious read due to the weird not-miller claim and vague lurkerness. claims not-miller despite not being called out by Palamedes D2, marks Tehpilot suspicious, marks Dini friendly, jumped on and immediately off Reecer wagon, generally not that much interaction.
awkwardcarapace: hasn't talked since d2 Nullread because duh
Lordlyhour: Strong suspicious read due to the lynch flipping and the thing with Numbers. flipped lynches, in order, from Robust Laser, to Reecer6, to a52, all of which are not scum D2, thinks Myeth is town D2, what is going on with Numbers and Lordlyhour they had like a thing going on D3?, claims visited by Seedy, potential non-town check by Palamedes from Sunspider but no claim or response to that
Seedy: Weak benign 3rd read. Mostly a hunch, I need to think more about what a talkative 3rd party Seedy might mean. didn't exist d2, really liked their d3 but i'm not sure how it lines up considering their 3rd party claim

In terms of lynch, I'd say my lynch interests are Lordlyhour > Numbers > Justice Watch > Robust Laser = Seedy > Thalia V1 > Mirdini. (As in, if I was picking from these four, I'd lynch Lordlyhour first.) Also okay with lynching awkwardcarapace on basis of lurker if we want to do that.

Looked up my previous list of Opinions, these are the things that have changed since then:

Positive change:
Sunspider went from Suspicious to Neutral (I don't think blue necessarily means cult anymore)
Thalia V1 went from Neutral to Friendly

Negative change:
Numbers and Lordlyhour went from Friendly to Suspicious (pretty much due to re-reading their interactions d3)

Everything else stayed about the same.

I'm a Blue Blooded Third Party.

My job is that of Vending Machine Tender. At night I get to restock the machine, though I can't take any items out of the machine that haven't been sold. Relatively simple process to verify. Meeth already knows this and can verify for me (indeed, he has, by means of use of the Honk Engine he requested and the message he posted in relation not long after.) Do Me a Favour and buy my junk. It lets me put more money into circulation so you can buy my junk

lordly you don’t need to fullclaim it’s ok >_<
like usually in games you shouldn’t do that unless you are Getting Lynched

also Q it’s been a bit but the main reason I wanna lynch ac is due to Reecee’s wacky ole role

Once per night, you must elect another player. They are now the Mayor (which is publicly announced), and their vote is worth two for the following Day. If you elect a new Mayor, the previous mayor’s voting power is returned to normal. If you elect the same mayor consecutively, they gain additional powers unknown to you. These powers are transferred when a new mayor is elected.

If you die, the last mayor you elected becomes the Forever Mayor, and grows in strength as if you were electing them each night.

You can also earn the win for town by having a Benign Mayor reach the end of the game alive.

bolded the really Important parts

so in summary ac will continue to grow in mysterious powers/lynch votes if we do nothing. if they are scum they will become a 1-player softlynch. if they are not scum it is odd that they have not been killed, considering the fact that if they’re benign scum will *lose* if they’re alive at overrun

btw Reecer, giving a lurker increasing mysterious powers wasn’t very pro-town OR punk rock of you

I've been considering role revealing for, like, half the game already, anyway. Makes me a more effective merchant if I can openly ask why you wanna buy

oh criminy Wheat I think you broke the forum

The mod gods have fixed wheat!

Also (sorry dini gotta tell them for the good of town) got me an extra life

I think if people voted for who they want to die that would be really cool and wonderful
if someone did votals that would also be really cool and wonderful (I’m on mobile so I can’t)

What's the name of the item? Is it a petrified life?

Nah, just said I gained one. Now that i think of it, Yea that really doesnt confirm anything other than taking one of Arlene's lives makes you gain an extra one. :eyes:

And if yall are planning on killing pooky, make it a lynch and not a night kill. Trust me, You won't be able to put a scratch on him at night.

Votals:
awkwardcarapace (2) - Seedy, Thalia V1
Lordlyhour (1) - LegendaryQ

Abstaining (11) - Robust Laser, Mirdini, dunnergy, Numbers, Justice Watch, Myeth, awkwardcarapace (x2), Lordlyhour, , Sunspider.


Bids
C. Purple Heart Gummies - 3 coins - Lordlyhour
E. Chocolate Bar - 1 coin - Sunspider
G. Energy Drink - 2 coins - Justice Watch, Seedy

With 14 votes present, it takes 4 to soft lynch and 7 to hard lynch. Day ends in ~53 hours (8th November, 2:30 pm EST).

I wish i had...mony

there's some money in the deluxe cake. it's a very rich cake

What flavour money? I don’t like strawberry.

No thanks then