Frozen Hearts Mafia [Family Ties - Mafia/Survivor Victory]

re: Granola

I suppose that logic is pretty sound but that's not a solution. That's more of an extension, but with more information than before. Plus, you're forgetting the possibility of an extra "brutal kill", whoch would put us straight into MYLO tomorrow even if Acio was scum.

Still. With the scum/town dichotomy, we cannot predict whether acio was town or scum, outside of tells. Same goes for you, and every other player I suppose. Therefore, how would lynching Acio be better than, say, someone who reads scummy? Like, according to your logic, me?

I've done a long bit of thinking, and I've concluded that, while your option is the "safe" lynch, it also has low payoff, as the result would always be 1 town and 1 scum dead. Where, if we lynch someone we think is scummier than Acio, we have a potential payoff of 2 scum dead. However, it is also possible to have 2 town dead, if we mislynch and Pala is town.

Still, the safe option would just leave us in the same place as before, and I do strongly believe Pala and Granola are both scum, so I will continue lynching Granola. It's up to everybody else whether to go "safe" or go "risky", considering that the risky option has a higher potential payoff.