Frozen Hearts Mafia [Family Ties - Mafia/Survivor Victory]

Show Content

SpoilerBeen on airplanes all day, excuse scatterbrainedness

Kiven, and how he flipped from lynching Alfalfa dude to calling him town

1. Eido, you could have asked me. 0u0 I would have told you that it's because I wasn't aware that this was his first game and now that his activity has spiked, he's been seeming a lot better.

Burnt houses look like a marker type 3P thing to me. But why would you mark Acio? if he's town he's. Not super likely to live for long.

2. Ayyy, sorry, can't meta.

Moving on, due to recent developments, I can see Garuru as a 3p? Like, Vic is probably town (I said this, right?) and two situational bps seems... not right? Still want to lynch Palamedes, like, this kind of pinged weird to me:

Thirdly, there's the fact that scum has no reason to shoot Vic, there are tons of better targets.

3. Better targets? That seems like a pretty weird reason for why they wouldn't shoot him.

1. This is believable but also really convenient.

2. Meta is basically "how does this person act when they are town? Are they acting differently? If yes, they are suspicious because something we don't know about is making them act differently." It's hardly foolproof but it narrows down some things.

3. What.

Okay, let me explain a little economics concept called opportunity costs.

Scum, by default, get one kill a night. This is important because it's their only tool other than mislynches, which are also important. They want to make sure that they kill people who are more threatening to them, because not all possible target are equally valuable to them.

So. Who is scum trying to kill?

Scum want to nightkill the following people:

Townfirms
People who are historically good at this game
People who are in good standing with town
People who look like they're catching on.

Scum do not want to nightkill the following people (while higher priority targets live):

People who are suspicious
People who are historically bad at this game
People who are inactive
People who are scum
People who are completely off the trail.

The main advantage scum has is that they essentially slowly make town more incompetent.

So, yes, as a matter of fact, "better targets" is literally the most logical possible reason to not nightkill someone.

Of course you'd know that, though, because you're probably inactive scum. With extremely bad MV defenses.

I think Acio is either scum or really off his game and I don't want either of those things to be true. I realize his reputation is massively overstated but even so he's active and dedicated and usually less disinterested than this.