RE: Murder By The Book - Day 8: The Seven Habits Of Highly Dead People
06-03-2014, 11:10 PM
Alright. Let's get back to the read.
Day Three opens up, there are no bodies to speak of. Cyber's back again, big surprise. Around this point I think it's pretty clear that Slorange was telling the whole truth, and the pie business that starts around this time puts the nail in that coffin.
Day 3's opening first tells me that Seedy II slot is probably town. Solaris throws a call for action in Truegreen's direction, then opts to take the lurker/low content poke approach. That's a weak bus onto Truegreen and then a relatively safe side option, which with additional knowledge added makes it look like general scum fake townhunting. More inclined to look at that spot as town, which makes me think bigro's questionable activity noted throughout might've been a result of player apathy and not scumtells.
Mirdini proceeds to bleed to death, and also takes the words right out of my mouth with #454 and summarizes it better than I could just above.
The majority of D3 now seems to be a lot going back and forth on suspicions for Solaris/Eberron/Garuru, and those results are pretty clear and easy. Not to concerned about picking out reads and trying to discern alignments since I've noticed a handful of neat tidbits here and there that should help clear up townreads/townfirms once I hit present day.
And now onto the pie business. Truegreen gets a pie and consumes it, and no visible effect happens. Solaris and Dini flip scum/town respectively, and on to D4.
Slorange is the piemaker, and that basically seals the deal with N1's strange kill-nexus shenanigans. Truegreen awakens covered in pie, and then Slorange graveslams Eberron with pie. I think Slorange, possibly thinking that Eberron was town and having confidence in the read, threw the informational pie at Eberron. So the nexus pie on N1, the flavormaking raspberry pie on N2, and perhaps the informational pie on N3? That leaves a fourth upcoming pie, though...
...Oh wait, three nights plus a free pie is four. Been doing so much integral math I forgot basic addition. Alright, nothing too confusing there.
#717 what. Having Sotek townfirmed really does throw a considerable wrench in my reads from the end of D2. Most I can really say right now with certainty is that Pala and Sotek are probably knowingly aligned at this point, and based on what I skipped from Pala's claim later on in the game, their roles are mechanically linked.
#777 going back to #664 - hey Donut, any interesting checks since that claim?
I really don't have much to say aside from D5 other than that revengekill was rather unfortunate, and props to Schazer for protecting Donut that night (I presume that's what went down anyway). gj bulletproof!Garuru.
Add Gnauga to the townfirm pile as well, it seems
And then Seedy as well. All caught up now!
Let's take a look at the list of players. I've gone ahead and color-coded the cop clears, our cop/doctor duo, and myself:
Schazer
Sotek
icanhasdonut
Akumu
Palamedes
Nova
Seedy II
Gnauga
This falls in line rather neatly with the current belief that there's two scum alive. I hate to shoot holes in this, but I don't think there's another third party at the moment. We know based on the 3P flips that even though Granola could recruit anyone at all, the numbers would be balanced anyway. 15/4/2 seems pretty reasonable, especially in a game that's mostly ruled by very weakish town power roles.
I also mentioned possibly knowing the reason for the gamestate: I was totally wrong. I misunderstood the definition of the gamestate, and the Thing I believed would account for it turned out to be another incorrect mechanical assumption on my end. That theory's totally out the window, which is probably a good thing as going into it prematurely would have been very unfortunate.
As for other reasons for the gamestate, my best guesses are:
> Another latent town power role that could misfire (see: Coldblooded's hidden kill)
> Possibility the setup has traitors within - maybe a Crooks Hollow III thing where there's three main mafia and two traitors? Could also throw a wrench in copchecks if traitors appear town until recruited
> Actual Survivor's about? I doubt this one
A central scumteam of janitor/busdriver/flavorcop is totally something I can get behind, as the presence of a handful of night action screwery and a lot of flavor-based mechanics give credence to that.
Pala was hunting for Sotek it seems. Hm. And he's a sort of one-way lover to Sotek?
Well, makes me feel better about my coalignment theory from way back.
I guess there's the possibility Donut's naive, because with all of these logical mechanical confirms and innocent checks, I find it hard to believe the last remaining people could be Pala and Sotek, especially with their roles.
Maybe one way to go about it would be to doctor-protect Palamedes and see if he survives when Sotek croaks? That wouldn't work but gah.
Godfather is probably among those quoted innocent checks above, and then if there's another person left it's either one of Pala/Sotek or another of those checks if Donut turns up naive or busdriving shenanigans put us in the wrong direction.
Akumu normal scum saved by busdrive / Godfather Gnauga 2k14?
Anyway, that's it for the catchup. Ask away if I missed anything or would like to see something else covered.
Day Three opens up, there are no bodies to speak of. Cyber's back again, big surprise. Around this point I think it's pretty clear that Slorange was telling the whole truth, and the pie business that starts around this time puts the nail in that coffin.
Day 3's opening first tells me that Seedy II slot is probably town. Solaris throws a call for action in Truegreen's direction, then opts to take the lurker/low content poke approach. That's a weak bus onto Truegreen and then a relatively safe side option, which with additional knowledge added makes it look like general scum fake townhunting. More inclined to look at that spot as town, which makes me think bigro's questionable activity noted throughout might've been a result of player apathy and not scumtells.
Mirdini proceeds to bleed to death, and also takes the words right out of my mouth with #454 and summarizes it better than I could just above.
The majority of D3 now seems to be a lot going back and forth on suspicions for Solaris/Eberron/Garuru, and those results are pretty clear and easy. Not to concerned about picking out reads and trying to discern alignments since I've noticed a handful of neat tidbits here and there that should help clear up townreads/townfirms once I hit present day.
And now onto the pie business. Truegreen gets a pie and consumes it, and no visible effect happens. Solaris and Dini flip scum/town respectively, and on to D4.
Slorange is the piemaker, and that basically seals the deal with N1's strange kill-nexus shenanigans. Truegreen awakens covered in pie, and then Slorange graveslams Eberron with pie. I think Slorange, possibly thinking that Eberron was town and having confidence in the read, threw the informational pie at Eberron. So the nexus pie on N1, the flavormaking raspberry pie on N2, and perhaps the informational pie on N3? That leaves a fourth upcoming pie, though...
...Oh wait, three nights plus a free pie is four. Been doing so much integral math I forgot basic addition. Alright, nothing too confusing there.
#717 what. Having Sotek townfirmed really does throw a considerable wrench in my reads from the end of D2. Most I can really say right now with certainty is that Pala and Sotek are probably knowingly aligned at this point, and based on what I skipped from Pala's claim later on in the game, their roles are mechanically linked.
#777 going back to #664 - hey Donut, any interesting checks since that claim?
I really don't have much to say aside from D5 other than that revengekill was rather unfortunate, and props to Schazer for protecting Donut that night (I presume that's what went down anyway). gj bulletproof!Garuru.
Add Gnauga to the townfirm pile as well, it seems
And then Seedy as well. All caught up now!
Let's take a look at the list of players. I've gone ahead and color-coded the cop clears, our cop/doctor duo, and myself:
Schazer
Sotek
icanhasdonut
Akumu
Palamedes
Nova
Seedy II
Gnauga
This falls in line rather neatly with the current belief that there's two scum alive. I hate to shoot holes in this, but I don't think there's another third party at the moment. We know based on the 3P flips that even though Granola could recruit anyone at all, the numbers would be balanced anyway. 15/4/2 seems pretty reasonable, especially in a game that's mostly ruled by very weakish town power roles.
I also mentioned possibly knowing the reason for the gamestate: I was totally wrong. I misunderstood the definition of the gamestate, and the Thing I believed would account for it turned out to be another incorrect mechanical assumption on my end. That theory's totally out the window, which is probably a good thing as going into it prematurely would have been very unfortunate.
As for other reasons for the gamestate, my best guesses are:
> Another latent town power role that could misfire (see: Coldblooded's hidden kill)
> Possibility the setup has traitors within - maybe a Crooks Hollow III thing where there's three main mafia and two traitors? Could also throw a wrench in copchecks if traitors appear town until recruited
> Actual Survivor's about? I doubt this one
A central scumteam of janitor/busdriver/flavorcop is totally something I can get behind, as the presence of a handful of night action screwery and a lot of flavor-based mechanics give credence to that.
Pala was hunting for Sotek it seems. Hm. And he's a sort of one-way lover to Sotek?
Well, makes me feel better about my coalignment theory from way back.
icanhasdonut, #1055 Wrote:n1 Akumu-inno
n6 gnauga-inno
n7 seedymk2-inno
I guess there's the possibility Donut's naive, because with all of these logical mechanical confirms and innocent checks, I find it hard to believe the last remaining people could be Pala and Sotek, especially with their roles.
Maybe one way to go about it would be to doctor-protect Palamedes and see if he survives when Sotek croaks? That wouldn't work but gah.
Godfather is probably among those quoted innocent checks above, and then if there's another person left it's either one of Pala/Sotek or another of those checks if Donut turns up naive or busdriving shenanigans put us in the wrong direction.
Akumu normal scum saved by busdrive / Godfather Gnauga 2k14?
Anyway, that's it for the catchup. Ask away if I missed anything or would like to see something else covered.
![[Image: c48AoKl.png?1]](https://i.imgur.com/c48AoKl.png?1)