RE: Murder By The Book - Day 8: The Seven Habits Of Highly Dead People
06-03-2014, 01:56 AM
Aw fuckin' hell I had a really good analysis of D1/D2 going on and then I lost all of it.
I'm going to just summarize it really quick then delve into further detail regarding Interesting Things about D2:
Happiest with Slorange and Schazer so far on read, Schazer has very solid mechanical posts that actually tie in really well to suspicion of players and correctly puts mechanical scumreads on Truegreen, Granola, etc.. Slorange gets an A+ for that vanisher/nexusthing claim, which when partnered with an honest attempt to follow up and clear the confusion reads solid town to me. If anything, Slorange's explanation, I feel, is perfect setup for a scum honey pot - people can try and harp on Slorange's actions, but they make good mechanical sense and are partnered with an honest follow up. Considering that Slorange flipped town and Truegreen, the main Slorange lynch advocate in D2 ended up scum, this paints very good images of Slorange.
Eberron D1 near-lynch would've been really good for an info lynch, and then Solaris happened. That Solaris did that clearly screamed scum intervention, and having Eberron flip town later on makes me think Solaris did a suicidal gambit to delay the lynch of a townie. Why do this? I think the reason's twofold: to delay information gain for town, and to set up time to make false connections to help clear or implicate people after Solaris's death. As I feel finding scum is easier after one's outed and thus the playerbase can make an effort to tie a scum back to their teammates, Solaris may have pulled a suicidal gambit to help mislynches occur later in the gamespace and to help establish connections after Solaris's death.
Thought exercise of the day: consider re-evaluating reads assuming ties made from Solaris's actions are incorrect, see what comes up. I'll be doing this once I get to and past Solaris death.
Granola claims 3P bodystacker and gives up the ghost. What I think matters the most to look out for is how people handle lynching Granola. With a 3P claim, it can be really easy for scum to safely dogpile on a lynch that is pretty obvious and also aids scum down the road. What I'll be looking for are people who turn their blood rage on ensuring Granola's death, without giving any kind of credence to other reads. That's not to say people should consider other lynches, Granola deserves to be lynched or vigged - but it's not worth dropping all other pursuits for the low hanging fruit.
Slorange continues to rack up town points for focusing on issues other than Granola at hand, there's Pala's readwall at #375, hm.
The people I think who stand out most so far (up to #426) about my belief that scum would only focus on Granola seem to already have flipped scum.
Also started thinking of side-eyeing AgentBlue, check their flip, it's town. Oh hey it's miller.
Godfather/cop? Nightside 2? Who knows. Worth noting. No idea if that's been covered yet.
Now, I'm going to break here since an hour and a half of analysis would make anyone insane. I haven't much to tie back to the current game state, as it seems most notable interactions or tidbits I saw deal with people presently deceased, or their name is Schazer.
If I had to take an absolute shot in the dark RIGHT NOW as to who could be scum, I would probably say Sotek. This is a really weak read, however, and it's primarily supplemented by a few general things:
1. Three posts said by him after Granola's trueclaim (over a roughly two irl day period), none of which are really substantial (two directly related to wanting Granola to hang),
2. Rests steadily in a sea of neutral or light scum/town reads at this point in the game, which I feel with a lack of inactivity isn't exactly the best thing,
and 3. Sotek seems more talkative later in the game, but this could simply be a calendar issue. Increasing talkativeness towards endgame is something I consider a light scumtell, especially as it's very easy to coast on light activity until the eleventh hour, then deploy a full salvo of influence.
I could be wrong.
MORE SOON. Will probably do D3 through D5 next.
In the meantime, I'll be more than happy to go into further detail on anything that needs further elaboration. I had a lot written then I lost it, and I really don't feel like rewriting all of it out again (hence the abbreviated summary of D1 and part of D2 above).
I'm going to just summarize it really quick then delve into further detail regarding Interesting Things about D2:
Happiest with Slorange and Schazer so far on read, Schazer has very solid mechanical posts that actually tie in really well to suspicion of players and correctly puts mechanical scumreads on Truegreen, Granola, etc.. Slorange gets an A+ for that vanisher/nexusthing claim, which when partnered with an honest attempt to follow up and clear the confusion reads solid town to me. If anything, Slorange's explanation, I feel, is perfect setup for a scum honey pot - people can try and harp on Slorange's actions, but they make good mechanical sense and are partnered with an honest follow up. Considering that Slorange flipped town and Truegreen, the main Slorange lynch advocate in D2 ended up scum, this paints very good images of Slorange.
Eberron D1 near-lynch would've been really good for an info lynch, and then Solaris happened. That Solaris did that clearly screamed scum intervention, and having Eberron flip town later on makes me think Solaris did a suicidal gambit to delay the lynch of a townie. Why do this? I think the reason's twofold: to delay information gain for town, and to set up time to make false connections to help clear or implicate people after Solaris's death. As I feel finding scum is easier after one's outed and thus the playerbase can make an effort to tie a scum back to their teammates, Solaris may have pulled a suicidal gambit to help mislynches occur later in the gamespace and to help establish connections after Solaris's death.
Thought exercise of the day: consider re-evaluating reads assuming ties made from Solaris's actions are incorrect, see what comes up. I'll be doing this once I get to and past Solaris death.
Granola claims 3P bodystacker and gives up the ghost. What I think matters the most to look out for is how people handle lynching Granola. With a 3P claim, it can be really easy for scum to safely dogpile on a lynch that is pretty obvious and also aids scum down the road. What I'll be looking for are people who turn their blood rage on ensuring Granola's death, without giving any kind of credence to other reads. That's not to say people should consider other lynches, Granola deserves to be lynched or vigged - but it's not worth dropping all other pursuits for the low hanging fruit.
Slorange continues to rack up town points for focusing on issues other than Granola at hand, there's Pala's readwall at #375, hm.
The people I think who stand out most so far (up to #426) about my belief that scum would only focus on Granola seem to already have flipped scum.
Also started thinking of side-eyeing AgentBlue, check their flip, it's town. Oh hey it's miller.
Godfather/cop? Nightside 2? Who knows. Worth noting. No idea if that's been covered yet.
Now, I'm going to break here since an hour and a half of analysis would make anyone insane. I haven't much to tie back to the current game state, as it seems most notable interactions or tidbits I saw deal with people presently deceased, or their name is Schazer.
If I had to take an absolute shot in the dark RIGHT NOW as to who could be scum, I would probably say Sotek. This is a really weak read, however, and it's primarily supplemented by a few general things:
1. Three posts said by him after Granola's trueclaim (over a roughly two irl day period), none of which are really substantial (two directly related to wanting Granola to hang),
2. Rests steadily in a sea of neutral or light scum/town reads at this point in the game, which I feel with a lack of inactivity isn't exactly the best thing,
and 3. Sotek seems more talkative later in the game, but this could simply be a calendar issue. Increasing talkativeness towards endgame is something I consider a light scumtell, especially as it's very easy to coast on light activity until the eleventh hour, then deploy a full salvo of influence.
I could be wrong.
MORE SOON. Will probably do D3 through D5 next.
In the meantime, I'll be more than happy to go into further detail on anything that needs further elaboration. I had a lot written then I lost it, and I really don't feel like rewriting all of it out again (hence the abbreviated summary of D1 and part of D2 above).
![[Image: c48AoKl.png?1]](https://i.imgur.com/c48AoKl.png?1)