Murder By The Book - Ender's Game

What I'm not getting is why he assumes he would have been targeted night one, why he's sure that means they'd have retargeted him night two (because why would the mafia so want him dead if they don't know anything about him slash if his only power is a bulletproof), why he's taking my claim at face value, or why he's suspicious neither of Watts not Truegreen (not because I'm sure that's wrong, just because I'm not sure why that's the case). What's the deal, yo?

Conveniently, the explanations to these questions are all pretty related!

I assume I was targeted night one for two reasons:

1. As some people noted yesterday cyber did not really make sense as a night kill target - he'd barely posted on day one (a total of 4 posts in this thread), and isn't particularly known as someone scum would want to murder otherwise. The only theory that holds up with cyber being intentionally shot is Schazer's 'scum shot a lurker to do the game a favor' which is not one I'm convinced by, see 2.
   
   
2. Despite my posting what, 3 times through the first two days I'm killed N2. This doesn't hold up with the 'scum want to keep the game fun' theory because even without my posting day 2 I'd still done more than some other players. It also doesn't make sense from a pure 'shoot the most in-this-game threatening people' angle either since well my absence. Which leaves the 'shoot dini he's dangerous' meta-reasoning that points heavily towards the mafia trying to off me N1 as well.

I'm taking your claim at face value both because Occam's razor suggests you're legit (eliminating the 'he scum-shot cyber in order to claim it and thus convince people he wasn't mafia because why would mafia shoot cyber etc. etc. etc.') and because since no-one else has stepped up to claim responsibility for cyber's death (janitored death, no less) your claim defaults to being correct.

Note that my opinion on your claim changed drastically once I'd been shot last night - before I was quite convinced that you were scum, mostly because so many of your posts were dealing with yourself n' your claim which seemed to me a wonderful distraction for the town to hare after while you got to have a plausible claim to run with for the rest of a game - a pretty well-executed gambit if so. (This gambit is not really compatible with the aforementioned 'kill Mirdini' directive).

Which is partially why I think Truegreen and Nova's focus on lynching you isn't scummy but simply misguided town - you looked pretty mafia (or at the very least third party) to me after my reread of yesterday too. The other part of it there is that they were (are) way too committed to your lynch - I don't think they would've gone quite as hard after you as scum, particularly on Day Two when if you're actually town they'd catch a ton of flak for pushing a lynch that hard.

Anyway.


While I'd love to see where this Solaris lynch goes I am sadly strapped for posting time so I might as well go with a lynch I feel somewhat better on (though Solaris is currently still a coinflip alignment-wise for me)

No, I think scum are sitting off in a more ambivalent quarter where they can try to commit to as few reads as possible while the game still settles in.

I'm tempted to say they're aligned, but if they were mafia, they would probably just take it to daychat. It also really feels like other people are jumping in to help Truegreen as well. So... Not sure what to think here at all, and I don't want to assume too much.

I will admit [Eberron] does look kind of scummy right now, from kind of flip-flopping between convictions. My vibe is telling me that he's town, trying his best to cover for his early mistakes. I feel like everyone pushing for eberron is trying too hard to have a lynch today, though whether it's a mislynch or an information lynch probably depends on the person voting. Honestly, eberron is the ULTRA PRIME #1 info lynch, because of the ridiculous number of people attacking or supporting him, so even then, there's not much to go on, at least until Eberron flips, if he does get lynched/killed.

Vote: Garuru

(I can dig up more waffling but this post is long enough as is)