RE: Tropefia - A PYP -D1: For Realsies (24/24)
05-22-2013, 04:29 AM
~21 hours to deadline
Statistically speaking we're never going to be more likely to hit scum until the scum have already won assuming random odds. That's sort of the point of them being a minority.
The point of lynching today (assuming no scum outright claims/is super super obvious) is honestly more for the information that lynch gives us which'll serve us well on future days ALONG with the chance that we lynch scum (which is still non-negligible!).
Wouldn't mind the people who haven't weighed in on a Cat lynch to weigh in on it though I'm not getting my hopes up (lookin' at you SupahKiven, myw, yd12k, MathGirl, Palamedes, Credit, Kieros, cyber et al.)
Sure as hell want the lynch to go through now, to the point where I'm almost willing to bet my life on the outcome.
Anyway for those who aren't 'in' on the deal with Cat lynch: curiousCat is historically speaking a player who does not participate an awful lot unless it suits her, and more often than not barely posts until late late laaaate into the game. Because of this people never lynch her despite her lack of content because it's 'just cat'. Policy lynches for this play have been proposed before but usually fizzle because 'policy lynches are bad'.
Well I am here to tell you that while they may strictly speaking be sub-optimal in a best case scenario, in this particular game I think pursuing what was originally a policy cat lynch is in the best interests of the town - both because I'm willing to bet on Cat's being scum (though it's about as likely as most people on my 'don't really like the look of' list) and more importantly because it will sure as hell be an interesting and informative day one lynch.
Which is more than I can say for a myriad of alternative lynches/fastlynches (such as the heavily subscribed '2create has said bad things lynch him' which is basically the easiest cop-out lynch in the field. Not saying 2create is 100% town in my book, but if he does flip town no-one's going to take any flak for it because 'oh no his play was weird you can't blame anyone for that' and the stuff around him leads me to believe that that is indeed the case).
'But dini, policy lynching Cat is also a cop-out!' I hear you cry. Nope. If Cat flips town I will take full responsibility for the lynch and if you see fit to lynch me tomorrow over it I won't blame you. I'll certainly fight against it, but you'd be well within reason to do so. (Please try not to vig me though, I'd much rather be able to leave my suspicions on the table after the flip). If she flips scum, it was pure goddamn luck that rolled it that way, and her death should not be considered to 'clear' me in any fashion (because that's what my play during subsequent days should be doing).
and I mean finally there's the added bonus of finally bonking Cat over the head with the news that her lurkin' it up until super late-game isn't going to make her any more long-lived than actually posting/playing a decent amount in said games of arguments n' words.
(05-22-2013, 03:20 AM)Gnauga Wrote: »We're prolly not gonna hit scum this round. I'm gonna abstain voting atm
Statistically speaking we're never going to be more likely to hit scum until the scum have already won assuming random odds. That's sort of the point of them being a minority.
The point of lynching today (assuming no scum outright claims/is super super obvious) is honestly more for the information that lynch gives us which'll serve us well on future days ALONG with the chance that we lynch scum (which is still non-negligible!).
Wouldn't mind the people who haven't weighed in on a Cat lynch to weigh in on it though I'm not getting my hopes up (lookin' at you SupahKiven, myw, yd12k, MathGirl, Palamedes, Credit, Kieros, cyber et al.)
Sure as hell want the lynch to go through now, to the point where I'm almost willing to bet my life on the outcome.
Anyway for those who aren't 'in' on the deal with Cat lynch: curiousCat is historically speaking a player who does not participate an awful lot unless it suits her, and more often than not barely posts until late late laaaate into the game. Because of this people never lynch her despite her lack of content because it's 'just cat'. Policy lynches for this play have been proposed before but usually fizzle because 'policy lynches are bad'.
Well I am here to tell you that while they may strictly speaking be sub-optimal in a best case scenario, in this particular game I think pursuing what was originally a policy cat lynch is in the best interests of the town - both because I'm willing to bet on Cat's being scum (though it's about as likely as most people on my 'don't really like the look of' list) and more importantly because it will sure as hell be an interesting and informative day one lynch.
Which is more than I can say for a myriad of alternative lynches/fastlynches (such as the heavily subscribed '2create has said bad things lynch him' which is basically the easiest cop-out lynch in the field. Not saying 2create is 100% town in my book, but if he does flip town no-one's going to take any flak for it because 'oh no his play was weird you can't blame anyone for that' and the stuff around him leads me to believe that that is indeed the case).
'But dini, policy lynching Cat is also a cop-out!' I hear you cry. Nope. If Cat flips town I will take full responsibility for the lynch and if you see fit to lynch me tomorrow over it I won't blame you. I'll certainly fight against it, but you'd be well within reason to do so. (Please try not to vig me though, I'd much rather be able to leave my suspicions on the table after the flip). If she flips scum, it was pure goddamn luck that rolled it that way, and her death should not be considered to 'clear' me in any fashion (because that's what my play during subsequent days should be doing).
and I mean finally there's the added bonus of finally bonking Cat over the head with the news that her lurkin' it up until super late-game isn't going to make her any more long-lived than actually posting/playing a decent amount in said games of arguments n' words.