RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21]
09-13-2018, 09:36 PM
Well, a lot happened when I missed a day.
BTW, to those looking at the votal that airey messed with before getting shot, highlight the thing. The votes targeting him and abstaining were all still there, just with a text color of white.
Though I'm seriously confused by one thing. Airey was SO sure that Solaris was a SK (or at least that Solaris shot them). Of all the bullcrap Airey spewed... They were somehow actually right about who shot them? Curious how they would know, particularly if the scum tracker died night 1. I guess I wasn't the first to think this, but it'll tie into a new theory I have (lower in this post)
Also, hmm. TehPilot was the first to comment on a very... odd set of bits from sleepingorange's posts. I almost started my first day 3 post with a rant about “why would you even say that” before deciding it would be unproductive. Now there's more role hinting going on as a part of that question of beru. Definitely interested to see where this line goes. And um, SleepingOrange is still saying things and hintings or possibilities that really, really bother me. Seriously, why the heck would you be commenting on possibilities of cross-aligned lovers?
Palamedes, you seriously don't think that a scum would stay on a scum wagon like tehpilot did for Airey, when the target was clearly floundering? I'll be honest – when Airey was sitting exactly at the soft lynch and responding they way they did, I would have been INCREDIBLY suspicious of anyone taking their vote off Airey. Situation changed as more votes were added (people not wanting to hammer quite yet) but by that point the outcome was barely in doubt.
So far I don't have much of a read on NotTheAuthor and Sai. If I had to pick one of the two as the lynch right now it'd probably be NotTheAuthor, only because I had a vaguely town read on Sai from my initial read-through of the thread and had barely any read on NTA. Since you're at soft lynch NTA, I'm hoping you can answer the following questions.
1) How many infiltrators do you suspect are still alive, and if you had to guess what powers they had (based on claims and flips so far), what would you pick?
2) Assume that one or more of our semi-clears (Jacquerel, coldblooded, LordlyHour, granolaman, solaris) is or are, in fact, gambiting scum. Which one(s) and what makes you suspect them over the others?
3) If one of the currently abstaining players (Jacquerel, Robust laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer) is scum, who do you suspect and why?
4) Are there any interactions between players over the last two days that you find particularly suspicious, either on their own or in light of the events of this day?
5) What do YOU suspect is the current state of play in the game, regarding the scum team and/or possible serial killers?
6) What possible scum team of the currently alive players scares you the most? Why?
7) Imagine we lynch Sai instead of you today. They flip town. Does this change your reads, and if so, on who?
8) You haven't reacted much to reaching softlynch, particularly with so little time left in the day. Is there a reason you're ok with this lynch, or are you just resigned to it?
9) Imagine someone has a Karkat power (or could sacrifice themselves to singlehandedly choose the lynch target today) and was totally sure of your innocence. Who would you recommend they lynch today instead?
10) Well, while I've been catching up and writing this post you ended up past softlynch. Can you please give us whatever reads and information you can before this lynch? Closing remarks to guide town after your flip?
To answer and follow up on questions made of me
@Sai – I actually had a light townread on coldblooded and a light scumread on jacquerel before today started. Jacq's vote on day 1 bothered me in a way I wasn't quite able to pin down, even with it's explanation. Given the shared claim and explanation, and even more so following the Airey situation, those early reads are now essentially moot.
Your post #768 and continued suspicions about granolaman are... intriguing? Odd? I dunno. Look, I'll admit, I'm the type to be super paranoid about mechanical things clearing players. But um, Granola just shot scum. With a day kill. When that scum was as good as lynched. No matter how I can think of it, if granola IS scum, he essentially just put his team a full day behind where they would have been otherwise, because as long as he's not the last scum, if he used that power targeting a townie before he got lynched, that costs the town a full day's lynch compared to shooting a scumbud. Not impossible, but super super risky as a scum gambit. Granola's not COMPLETELY CLEARED FOREVER but that action very heavily favors them as town in my book. Oddly enough, based on voting patterns I thought granola looked kinda scummy, but based on what they'd been saying I'd had the opposite read and was conflicted before they shot Airey. I read your explanation why you think granola HAD to shoot airey if anyone, but you seem way more sure of this than feels justified to me.
@palamedes – given the actions of granola and the claimed action of solaris (though with no counterclaim that one's reasonably secure for now), my belief in a standard 1/night town-sided killing role has dropped considerably. That said, I'm still not totally convinced there's a serial killer at all – LegendaryQ's target could easily have been town allied or scum allied for it's own reasons. The fact that no players died night 2, coupled with our knowledge about targeted players implies that whatever killed LQ didn't get anyone last night.
I do have another, potentially worrying theory about that one though. See, in that wall of bluffs that Airey gave before getting shot, they DID end up claiming an amnesiac style role (among many other things). We now know Airey was scum. It's possible that Airey's claim was in fact based on information they had on the scum team.
My current theory is that the game did have an amnesiac (possibly LQ's target) who got to murder a player night 1 and assume their role. If that's the case, Pharmacy's tracker role may indeed still be something the scum team has access to, with a different player having taken that role. This could potentially explain Airey's tunnelling on Solaris for shooting them. If that IS the case, then there's at least one member of the current scum team who the day 1 conversation and votals won't help us pin down.
I acknowledge that there are probably plenty of holes in this theory (namely, assuming something based on the squirming claims of caught scum) but if we don't see another corpse with the same sort of death as pharmacy tonight, it's likely to remain my guess going forward.
BTW, to those looking at the votal that airey messed with before getting shot, highlight the thing. The votes targeting him and abstaining were all still there, just with a text color of white.
Though I'm seriously confused by one thing. Airey was SO sure that Solaris was a SK (or at least that Solaris shot them). Of all the bullcrap Airey spewed... They were somehow actually right about who shot them? Curious how they would know, particularly if the scum tracker died night 1. I guess I wasn't the first to think this, but it'll tie into a new theory I have (lower in this post)
Also, hmm. TehPilot was the first to comment on a very... odd set of bits from sleepingorange's posts. I almost started my first day 3 post with a rant about “why would you even say that” before deciding it would be unproductive. Now there's more role hinting going on as a part of that question of beru. Definitely interested to see where this line goes. And um, SleepingOrange is still saying things and hintings or possibilities that really, really bother me. Seriously, why the heck would you be commenting on possibilities of cross-aligned lovers?
Palamedes, you seriously don't think that a scum would stay on a scum wagon like tehpilot did for Airey, when the target was clearly floundering? I'll be honest – when Airey was sitting exactly at the soft lynch and responding they way they did, I would have been INCREDIBLY suspicious of anyone taking their vote off Airey. Situation changed as more votes were added (people not wanting to hammer quite yet) but by that point the outcome was barely in doubt.
So far I don't have much of a read on NotTheAuthor and Sai. If I had to pick one of the two as the lynch right now it'd probably be NotTheAuthor, only because I had a vaguely town read on Sai from my initial read-through of the thread and had barely any read on NTA. Since you're at soft lynch NTA, I'm hoping you can answer the following questions.
1) How many infiltrators do you suspect are still alive, and if you had to guess what powers they had (based on claims and flips so far), what would you pick?
2) Assume that one or more of our semi-clears (Jacquerel, coldblooded, LordlyHour, granolaman, solaris) is or are, in fact, gambiting scum. Which one(s) and what makes you suspect them over the others?
3) If one of the currently abstaining players (Jacquerel, Robust laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer) is scum, who do you suspect and why?
4) Are there any interactions between players over the last two days that you find particularly suspicious, either on their own or in light of the events of this day?
5) What do YOU suspect is the current state of play in the game, regarding the scum team and/or possible serial killers?
6) What possible scum team of the currently alive players scares you the most? Why?
7) Imagine we lynch Sai instead of you today. They flip town. Does this change your reads, and if so, on who?
8) You haven't reacted much to reaching softlynch, particularly with so little time left in the day. Is there a reason you're ok with this lynch, or are you just resigned to it?
9) Imagine someone has a Karkat power (or could sacrifice themselves to singlehandedly choose the lynch target today) and was totally sure of your innocence. Who would you recommend they lynch today instead?
10) Well, while I've been catching up and writing this post you ended up past softlynch. Can you please give us whatever reads and information you can before this lynch? Closing remarks to guide town after your flip?
To answer and follow up on questions made of me
@Sai – I actually had a light townread on coldblooded and a light scumread on jacquerel before today started. Jacq's vote on day 1 bothered me in a way I wasn't quite able to pin down, even with it's explanation. Given the shared claim and explanation, and even more so following the Airey situation, those early reads are now essentially moot.
Your post #768 and continued suspicions about granolaman are... intriguing? Odd? I dunno. Look, I'll admit, I'm the type to be super paranoid about mechanical things clearing players. But um, Granola just shot scum. With a day kill. When that scum was as good as lynched. No matter how I can think of it, if granola IS scum, he essentially just put his team a full day behind where they would have been otherwise, because as long as he's not the last scum, if he used that power targeting a townie before he got lynched, that costs the town a full day's lynch compared to shooting a scumbud. Not impossible, but super super risky as a scum gambit. Granola's not COMPLETELY CLEARED FOREVER but that action very heavily favors them as town in my book. Oddly enough, based on voting patterns I thought granola looked kinda scummy, but based on what they'd been saying I'd had the opposite read and was conflicted before they shot Airey. I read your explanation why you think granola HAD to shoot airey if anyone, but you seem way more sure of this than feels justified to me.
@palamedes – given the actions of granola and the claimed action of solaris (though with no counterclaim that one's reasonably secure for now), my belief in a standard 1/night town-sided killing role has dropped considerably. That said, I'm still not totally convinced there's a serial killer at all – LegendaryQ's target could easily have been town allied or scum allied for it's own reasons. The fact that no players died night 2, coupled with our knowledge about targeted players implies that whatever killed LQ didn't get anyone last night.
I do have another, potentially worrying theory about that one though. See, in that wall of bluffs that Airey gave before getting shot, they DID end up claiming an amnesiac style role (among many other things). We now know Airey was scum. It's possible that Airey's claim was in fact based on information they had on the scum team.
My current theory is that the game did have an amnesiac (possibly LQ's target) who got to murder a player night 1 and assume their role. If that's the case, Pharmacy's tracker role may indeed still be something the scum team has access to, with a different player having taken that role. This could potentially explain Airey's tunnelling on Solaris for shooting them. If that IS the case, then there's at least one member of the current scum team who the day 1 conversation and votals won't help us pin down.
I acknowledge that there are probably plenty of holes in this theory (namely, assuming something based on the squirming claims of caught scum) but if we don't see another corpse with the same sort of death as pharmacy tonight, it's likely to remain my guess going forward.