The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

also i guess at least one of slorange or schazer is not mafia, definitely feels like the sort of thing thats fine to just let sit aside for a while imo

beru do you have opinions on stuff that doesn't have to do with airey or nola? ty

numbers vanished after the start of today, numbers do you have anything to add about anything that happened today? i wanted to believe you're just naive town but im getting less and less convinced of that?

Sorry 'bout that. I have school right now and that's causing me to not be here most of the time. Anyways, on today's happenings:

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NTA's post

Mostly this whole experience has reminded me why I started only joining gimmick mafias: I just don't know what to look for when it comes to scumhunting. That D2 read list was based more on vibes than actual analysis, because I never actually got around to the actual analysis I'd hoped to do. Like, "Not Third Party" is essentially "people who are invested in making lynches happen, but who I can't pin as either Mafia or Town specifically." And even then, "Mafia" and "Town" read more as "Mafia?" and "Town???" because they're based as much on tone and activity as anything else, which is not a way of assessing things that I can get behind! Even though it's the only way I can asses things most of the time!

Is this me defending myself? Nope! My play's been garbage and people are right to suspect me for it! Is any of this helpful? Maybe! It'll probably give some of you a better read on my alignment somehow, someway that I'll never be able to understand! Is this too self-aware? I still don't know what the hell that means!!

This post mostly seems like a long-winded thing about how they aren't good at this, they don't know how to look close, etc etc, and frankly, it looks a tad bit like a bunch of excuses. I'll get to NTA in more depth later, but right now I want to focus on today.


Robust Laser's posts seem fine, my thoughts on them are pretty town-ish.

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x1372's Post

Allrighty, there's gonna be a lot of bits and bobs in this post, including some explanations behind a few of my questions.  There's a lot of mechanical guessing and such, much of which could be wrong, but here goes.

I am no longer totally convinced that this game setup contains a serial killer.  If I had to guess, I'd say there's a town-sided vigilante or something.  The two (presumably non-mafia) targets based on death and claim from my view mesh perfectly with the actions of a scum-hunting vigilante.  Our only real evidence that those kills were non-townsided was LegendaryQ's flip, and it's not inconceivable that the wailren's target is allied with the town or the scum faction.  Metagaming a bit here, but it'd sounds kinda unfair for a SK to have additional pressure of someone hunting them, but that's not nearly as much of a problem balance-wise for a vigilante.  I was slightly fishing to see if granolaman might comment on the possibility, but no matter.  Of course, this goes completely against things that Airey was saying in their response to my questions, but I'm particularly trusting of that.

Speaking of granolaman, who ARE your biggest scum reads then, if Robot Laser isn't one of them?  Because RL was the highest scum read you had on... well, anyone who voted to lynch EITHER non-scum lynch victim we've had in the game so far.  It seems curious that you don't have much of a scum-read on any of them.

Next, I'd like a bit of context.  How experienced of a player is coldblooded?  And is she the crafty type who's likely to pull off something like the following?

I certainly don't currently believe this is the case, but I've got this nagging suspicion that they could be involved in a pretty sneaky scum gambit today.  I can't help but note that coldblooded jumped out early to claim that Jacquerel got shot before Jacquerel had a chance to comment on it himself.  This makes Jacquerel the closest thing we have to confirmed town, and makes coldblooded look good for doing so.  And that'd be a heck of a dangerous gambit for two scum-buds to make (since it would presumably have also included not taking a shot n2), but not NEARLY as much of one for coldblooded to do so as scum with Jacquerel as a townie.  Because if Jacquerel survived an attack by scum, scum knows it.  I've been on scum teams that made crazier gambits than that, though never quite as quick on the draw about it as coldblooded was.  If, indeed, it was a scum gambit, which I currently doubt, but can't completely shake the possibility.  The fact that Jacquerel and coldblooded seem to be sharing winks about fluff makes this whole thing even less likely.  In any event, it's clear that Airey wasn't thinking about or willing to speak to that theory, because they didn't bite on my “either or both scum” question.  

Schazer's vote post targeting numbers bugs me a wee bit.  Arguing that it would have been better to not give an explanation for a vote rather than a weak one seems... eh?  I mean heck, I sorta did that when I initially voted tehpilot but I was admittedly at least partially trying to gauge their reaction and followed it up (far more dickishly than I should have) later.

It feels weird, I think I'm the only person whose opinion of Blazer/Lordy actually went DOWN when they claimed.  Reading day 2 start I was thinking of that slot as my strongest town read, right up until the claim that I double-plus did not like.  It's weird that other people seem to be leaning slight town because of that claim, while I went from leaning strong town to only slight town because of it.

So Airey is claiming 3rd party in addition to all of the rest.  Hmf.  Really not liking this.  Part of me wants to lynch that just on principle, but at the very least I don't want to push toward ending the day early.

Regarding claims of what happened last night.  None of the targets have claimed an extra hit point or bulletproof (and it'd be completely nonsensical for Airey given their claims).  Presumably something or someone prevented all kills from going through last night (coldblooded and jacquerel fluff comments nonwithstanding).  That seems like a crazy strong power, even for a one-shot.  A weird thought, and part of why I'm a bit hesitant to join the Airey vote train, is that this “blood” event or whatever could be just delaying the deaths.  If that's the case, and he is telling the truth about having been targeted, then the Airey lynch would be a waste as they would likely be dead tomorrow anyway.  If airey's telling the truth about being a bomb and isn't lynched, we could have 5 people dead at daystart tomorrow.  

Just in case that theory's true... hey Jacquerel?  Would you mind giving out some additional reads, and asking some questions of the rest of the group?  Right now you're the closest thing to confirmed town that we are likely to get in this game, and if there's even a chance you're living on borrowed time I'd like to make the most of it.

I agree with x1372's first statement here; I am unsure if there's actually a SK here. Although, that doesn't mean if there's actually one or not. Nobody really knows right now. On everything else I'm kinda 'eh'. Unsure about them.

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Jacq's Posts

So like I just want to repeat to make it clear, according to my quicktopic the reason I didn't die is because Coldblooded's night action prevented it from happening.
The kill on me definitely would have gone through without the interference of Coldblooded.

My death was not delayed, I'm not going to die when the day ends or tomorrow morning (unless someone shoots me again tonight).
Whoever tried to kill me did actually kill someone, it just wasn't me (or any other player). Coldblooded's son valiantly took the bullet in my place and then died in my arms, may he not be forgotten.

What Coldblooded described happening matches exactly what my quicktopic says, and thus I am heavily sceptical of any speculation that some other effect prevented all kills last night, because in that case I don't imagine the flavour or non-flavour mechanical explanation of events which I got would be what it was.

Which in turn makes me heavily sceptical of Airey who claims that two additional people should have died last night and did not, which is a large number of people to not die, and also that their flavour and mechanical explanation are incompatible with how the game was at daystart, which is just weird.
And then claimed not to be aligned with town for, some reason.

I am willing to entertain the idea that the "Siren" is something which isn't a serial killer, and the extra kills that have been floating around have been from someone else, but I think it's pretty unlikely that Airey would lie about being shot. That would only be a safe claim if Airey had been the person doing the shooting and couldn't or didn't want to do it last night, otherwise they're begging for the actual second person who got shot to counterclaim them.

Also in case it interests anyone, I double triple checked my quicktopic and I did find one useful piece of information about this blood (not really, but it's funny and I wanted to relay it to everyone else): It doesn't belong to any active Monomin employees, so you don't need to worry about that.
This is a place of science, is it really that unusual for the corridors to be running with blood?

My vibes from yesterday haven't changed much apart from I can feel a little better about some people who are town (including myself)
My post-work post is going to have to turn into another post later because it turns out there's still a bunch of people who I have like, not strong enough feelings to write about right now, and now that scum have rudely thrust my into the limelight I guess that's my job now

Very Town: Me, Coldblooded, Blazer/Lordlyhour
Kind of town: Solaris, Slorange, x/Acio, 
Don't know: RobustLaser, Granola
Don't like: Numbers? NTA, TehPilot
Would kill: Airey, Schazer

I already said yesterday that Airey was my second lynch after aC and then someone tried to shoot me.
They've been wildly going in on Solaris all game and even after their explanation I don't get it. Why does Airey believe so strongly that Solaris is their target?

Solaris looks good (and in the game) by prolonged, unfeigned emnity with Airey (although to be fair, mostly one-sided). Whatever they have going on is not something two coaligned people would do, although if Airey was a third party that means a lot less.
I still don't really know where Airey's idea that Solaris is the theoretical serial killer came from.

Granola, Solaris, and TehPilot share my 100% mislynch record, but also like, scum have enough information to not do that? It would be a bad idea to vote for someone you know isn't scum twice in a row, then shoot me and reyweld (unless I wasn't shot by the mafia), which makes me feel better about the people who voted for Q day one.
At this point I don't think more than like one person and maybe it could be 0 people from the day one wagon are scum. 


Schazer's in that weird place where she's acting like she wants to die and otherwise barely interacting with the game at all, to the extent where it feels like trying to lynch her would be a waste of a day, but that's exactly the position scum want to be in?
She's also vagueing like hell about having some ability which means she wants to die at night time but that's like, the opposite behaviour to someone who wants to get shot at night. If you want someone to shoot you then you need to draw attention to yourself, which they are not doing, and also, not literally tell them that you want them to shoot you.
Saying "I have a role where I want people to shoot me" always just translates in my head as "Don't shoot me".

Numbers I still find hard to read due to their inexperience and basically I just want to, repeat my earlier position of that I am happy for them to still be alive for a few days because:
a) Presumably they'll have talked more
b) If they live that long then it's hard to believe their completely unprovoked day one claim of useful town power role
So uh, I guess that's a poisoned chalice there buddy because the only way I'll easily trust you since making that claim is if you get killed for making it. Oops!


I like x/Acio more now that they're not Acio because my brain turns off when I read any of Acio's posts, in that they're playing the game of someone who knows how to play mafia while I am playing the game of a loud dumbass who is good at looking like he knows something about things.

These posts seem pretty logical, nothing to really note about them that incriminates Jacq, and previous posts by Jacq have made me pretty sure they're Town.

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Airey's Posts

@Airey

Look, you've said a lot of things today.  Things that don't mesh with what others are saying in a way that makes you look bad.  You also seemed to be focusing way more on a serial killer answer than seems prudent, though you ARE claiming you got shot at by what you think is a SK.  And finally, you just made a claim that, if true, seems INCREDIBLY anti-town to have revealed publicly.  Since you're already at soft lynch, I'm sure you wouldn't mind answering a few questions .

1) Given that they seem to contradict you, do you now believe that one or both of coldblooded and jacquerel are scum?  If just one, which and why?

2) If you DID get shot by a serial killer before... whatever blood thing occurred, why are you claiming it?

3) You just claimed bomb.  If it's true and everyone believed it, scum will no longer target you.  This completely defeats the purpose of your role itself.  Why make that claim, instead of just announcing that you were targeted?

4) Would you like to take a second stab at a role claim?  If so, what were you hoping to gain out of the bomb claim?

6) You are voting for Solaris on assumption of being a Serial Killer.  I stated earlier that I very strongly disagree with hunting for a SK at this juncture.  Do you disagree with my logic on that?  If so, please explain why I'm wrong.

 
1.) Neither are scum to me, i think something shenanigans is going on because if i didnt survive because of the blood then something saved me and the sk.
2/3/4.) So my role has two parts, now that my bomb has gone off i no longer have it so i am shit out of luck, didnt want to say it but i feel like i have to explain it now, so for my other part i would rather not go into that as i might have to end up using it.
6.) ok so you logic is solid, it makes 100% sense but referring to 2/3/4 my bomb was meant for sk and sk alone. for reasons i need sk dead, like yesterday.

So I am pretty much an Amnesiac with a bomb, my biggest issue now and the reason i claimed is because my bomb went off and did not kill my killer and now i no longer have said bomb and the only way for me to win is with the siren being lynched. you say removing a 3p is a net positive for the town is kind of a laugh in my face as that is what iv been saying all along in wanting to kill the sk. 

also perhaps the biggest reason not to bother lynching me is that i am dead to siren tonight anyway after me claiming walrus and  getting town to lynch who i think the sk is, is for sure not going to happen so i am more or less a dead man with a paper mache walrus mask walking.

what did i miss that confirmed jacq town

So not saying the blood is related to me or anything but someone did try to shoot me last night only to fail. I kind of had it coming but still a dick move.

eating my breakfast and doing a quick work related task and then will read thread

So Jaq was targeted by mafia, cool.

Ok so either Sol was just assuming Jaq was the mafia target before i said i was attacked last night OR he knew i was attacked last night cause he is the SK like i have been saying all along and he targeted me last night not knowing it wouldn't work.

Vote: Solaris

So under the assumption that the mafia did not target me since i have not made myself look good and seeing as how w/e the blood is saved? both me and jaq has not given us much information to work off. all i have is its pretty much confirmed sk targeted me while mafia targeted jaq. and some shitty reads.

Solaris - SK and wants me dead.

So this all really screams "Don't lynch me pleeeeease" and "Focus on the SK not me" and it's annoying.

1. We have no idea who the SK is, and you aren't backing up your guess of who it is either.
2. Why would you even say you were a bomb, rather than are a bomb? That way, you at least wouldn't be nightkilled by the SK, nor anybody else, for that matter, giving you time to attempt to convince everyone to lynch the SK.
3. Given that you are what you say you are, why would you actively declare this? That, as you can see, has drained all your power to affect lynches.
4. You are trying as hard as possible to defend youself, and are looking squirmy.
5. You are derailing horribly from getting rid of Scum and Mafia.
6. Why even roleclaim if it isn't Town? That just serves to put yourself under scrutiny, which is bad for anything but Town.

Because of all of this, I will switch vote to Airey. At worst, it'll be a wasted lynch. At best, it's a scum lynch.