RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Mystery [17/21]
09-11-2018, 03:35 PM
Allrighty, there's gonna be a lot of bits and bobs in this post, including some explanations behind a few of my questions. There's a lot of mechanical guessing and such, much of which could be wrong, but here goes.
I am no longer totally convinced that this game setup contains a serial killer. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a town-sided vigilante or something. The two (presumably non-mafia) targets based on death and claim from my view mesh perfectly with the actions of a scum-hunting vigilante. Our only real evidence that those kills were non-townsided was LegendaryQ's flip, and it's not inconceivable that the wailren's target is allied with the town or the scum faction. Metagaming a bit here, but it'd sounds kinda unfair for a SK to have additional pressure of someone hunting them, but that's not nearly as much of a problem balance-wise for a vigilante. I was slightly fishing to see if granolaman might comment on the possibility, but no matter. Of course, this goes completely against things that Airey was saying in their response to my questions, but I'm particularly trusting of that.
Speaking of granolaman, who ARE your biggest scum reads then, if Robot Laser isn't one of them? Because RL was the highest scum read you had on... well, anyone who voted to lynch EITHER non-scum lynch victim we've had in the game so far. It seems curious that you don't have much of a scum-read on any of them.
Next, I'd like a bit of context. How experienced of a player is coldblooded? And is she the crafty type who's likely to pull off something like the following?
I certainly don't currently believe this is the case, but I've got this nagging suspicion that they could be involved in a pretty sneaky scum gambit today. I can't help but note that coldblooded jumped out early to claim that Jacquerel got shot before Jacquerel had a chance to comment on it himself. This makes Jacquerel the closest thing we have to confirmed town, and makes coldblooded look good for doing so. And that'd be a heck of a dangerous gambit for two scum-buds to make (since it would presumably have also included not taking a shot n2), but not NEARLY as much of one for coldblooded to do so as scum with Jacquerel as a townie. Because if Jacquerel survived an attack by scum, scum knows it. I've been on scum teams that made crazier gambits than that, though never quite as quick on the draw about it as coldblooded was. If, indeed, it was a scum gambit, which I currently doubt, but can't completely shake the possibility. The fact that Jacquerel and coldblooded seem to be sharing winks about fluff makes this whole thing even less likely. In any event, it's clear that Airey wasn't thinking about or willing to speak to that theory, because they didn't bite on my “either or both scum” question.
Schazer's vote post targeting numbers bugs me a wee bit. Arguing that it would have been better to not give an explanation for a vote rather than a weak one seems... eh? I mean heck, I sorta did that when I initially voted tehpilot but I was admittedly at least partially trying to gauge their reaction and followed it up (far more dickishly than I should have) later.
It feels weird, I think I'm the only person whose opinion of Blazer/Lordy actually went DOWN when they claimed. Reading day 2 start I was thinking of that slot as my strongest town read, right up until the claim that I double-plus did not like. It's weird that other people seem to be leaning slight town because of that claim, while I went from leaning strong town to only slight town because of it.
So Airey is claiming 3rd party in addition to all of the rest. Hmf. Really not liking this. Part of me wants to lynch that just on principle, but at the very least I don't want to push toward ending the day early.
Regarding claims of what happened last night. None of the targets have claimed an extra hit point or bulletproof (and it'd be completely nonsensical for Airey given their claims). Presumably something or someone prevented all kills from going through last night (coldblooded and jacquerel fluff comments nonwithstanding). That seems like a crazy strong power, even for a one-shot. A weird thought, and part of why I'm a bit hesitant to join the Airey vote train, is that this “blood” event or whatever could be just delaying the deaths. If that's the case, and he is telling the truth about having been targeted, then the Airey lynch would be a waste as they would likely be dead tomorrow anyway. If airey's telling the truth about being a bomb and isn't lynched, we could have 5 people dead at daystart tomorrow.
Just in case that theory's true... hey Jacquerel? Would you mind giving out some additional reads, and asking some questions of the rest of the group? Right now you're the closest thing to confirmed town that we are likely to get in this game, and if there's even a chance you're living on borrowed time I'd like to make the most of it.
I am no longer totally convinced that this game setup contains a serial killer. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a town-sided vigilante or something. The two (presumably non-mafia) targets based on death and claim from my view mesh perfectly with the actions of a scum-hunting vigilante. Our only real evidence that those kills were non-townsided was LegendaryQ's flip, and it's not inconceivable that the wailren's target is allied with the town or the scum faction. Metagaming a bit here, but it'd sounds kinda unfair for a SK to have additional pressure of someone hunting them, but that's not nearly as much of a problem balance-wise for a vigilante. I was slightly fishing to see if granolaman might comment on the possibility, but no matter. Of course, this goes completely against things that Airey was saying in their response to my questions, but I'm particularly trusting of that.
Speaking of granolaman, who ARE your biggest scum reads then, if Robot Laser isn't one of them? Because RL was the highest scum read you had on... well, anyone who voted to lynch EITHER non-scum lynch victim we've had in the game so far. It seems curious that you don't have much of a scum-read on any of them.
Next, I'd like a bit of context. How experienced of a player is coldblooded? And is she the crafty type who's likely to pull off something like the following?
I certainly don't currently believe this is the case, but I've got this nagging suspicion that they could be involved in a pretty sneaky scum gambit today. I can't help but note that coldblooded jumped out early to claim that Jacquerel got shot before Jacquerel had a chance to comment on it himself. This makes Jacquerel the closest thing we have to confirmed town, and makes coldblooded look good for doing so. And that'd be a heck of a dangerous gambit for two scum-buds to make (since it would presumably have also included not taking a shot n2), but not NEARLY as much of one for coldblooded to do so as scum with Jacquerel as a townie. Because if Jacquerel survived an attack by scum, scum knows it. I've been on scum teams that made crazier gambits than that, though never quite as quick on the draw about it as coldblooded was. If, indeed, it was a scum gambit, which I currently doubt, but can't completely shake the possibility. The fact that Jacquerel and coldblooded seem to be sharing winks about fluff makes this whole thing even less likely. In any event, it's clear that Airey wasn't thinking about or willing to speak to that theory, because they didn't bite on my “either or both scum” question.
Schazer's vote post targeting numbers bugs me a wee bit. Arguing that it would have been better to not give an explanation for a vote rather than a weak one seems... eh? I mean heck, I sorta did that when I initially voted tehpilot but I was admittedly at least partially trying to gauge their reaction and followed it up (far more dickishly than I should have) later.
It feels weird, I think I'm the only person whose opinion of Blazer/Lordy actually went DOWN when they claimed. Reading day 2 start I was thinking of that slot as my strongest town read, right up until the claim that I double-plus did not like. It's weird that other people seem to be leaning slight town because of that claim, while I went from leaning strong town to only slight town because of it.
So Airey is claiming 3rd party in addition to all of the rest. Hmf. Really not liking this. Part of me wants to lynch that just on principle, but at the very least I don't want to push toward ending the day early.
Regarding claims of what happened last night. None of the targets have claimed an extra hit point or bulletproof (and it'd be completely nonsensical for Airey given their claims). Presumably something or someone prevented all kills from going through last night (coldblooded and jacquerel fluff comments nonwithstanding). That seems like a crazy strong power, even for a one-shot. A weird thought, and part of why I'm a bit hesitant to join the Airey vote train, is that this “blood” event or whatever could be just delaying the deaths. If that's the case, and he is telling the truth about having been targeted, then the Airey lynch would be a waste as they would likely be dead tomorrow anyway. If airey's telling the truth about being a bomb and isn't lynched, we could have 5 people dead at daystart tomorrow.
Just in case that theory's true... hey Jacquerel? Would you mind giving out some additional reads, and asking some questions of the rest of the group? Right now you're the closest thing to confirmed town that we are likely to get in this game, and if there's even a chance you're living on borrowed time I'd like to make the most of it.