RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Mystery [17/21]
09-11-2018, 01:12 AM
Okay, so Airey's claim is that they're the new Walrus-aligned person but keep their old power? I'm fine with lynching that, because if he's lying he's scum and if he's telling the truth he's still not town.
I'm just gonna drop my read list here, grouped by category. Most of this is actually unchanged from yesterday.
Town - Do Not Lynch -
Coldblooded - Was the towniest essentially after Pharm's flip and continued being extremely painfully obviously town to the point that I'd consider them essentially clear. I don't think this read would be any reduced even before their doc claim.
Jacquerel - While less obvious than CB, I think they were also pretty clearly proactively town, and it does make sense to me that they'd be shot at just on account of being largely considered townie and therefore hard to ML.
Acionyx / x1372 - Acio was a pretty strong driver of early discussion, and while I didn't always view things from the same perspective, I largely agreed with their points after they explained them. More importantly, I think that their frustration in the Seedy argument was genuine, and I don't necessarily see a scum player getting so heavily invested in that awkward argument. x1372 as a sub seems to be similarly approaching things with townmind, so I'm pretty comfortable with their affiliation
Slorange - This one's mostly an empathy based read, but their actual content D2 posts basically mirrored my own thoughts on most of their reads before I'd posted to that effect, which just made me think that they were approaching the game from the same perspective. They claimed to have been targeted by a cleaning action and we know that Justice Watch roleplay claimed a janitorial role, but that doesn't really affect my read; just makes me curious about what JW did.
BlazerC / LordlyHour - Admittedly this one's mostly just based on their role claim, but I think that the way that they went about suggesting that they be lynched to shoot AC read as genuine. It's an extremely big risk for scum to take, especially when they were in 2nd rather than being the lynch leader at the time.
Solaris - I honestly have a hard time processing their posts just based on how they normally type for whatever reason, so I just glossed over most of their posts D1 and D2 except when I was looking at others interacting with them. Just their approach to Airey made me lean town, though, and now that I've actually made myself read their content, I'm much more confident in that.
Numbers - Not the strongest of reads, but I actually think they're town based mostly on their interactions with Pharms not reading as artificial / teammates to me. I do think that the fact that they're new is making them flop around a lot, but I have way lower expectations of their posts.
Null, leaning town -
Palamedes - I was considering putting Pala up in town on the null end, and they're where I'd say the line is. I think that the fact that they didn't give me a pass for posting walls of text is a big up in my book, but the reason that I don't want to say that they're town is just that I don't have a strong idea of who they suspect, if that makes sense. It's partially just an activity thing, but from Slorange for instance, even with what little we have it was very clearly 'these people are probably townie, these people are probably scum, here's why I think that,' whereas Pala seems much more opaque to me.
Seedy - Like Pala, more just someone that I don't have a great read on than someone that's been lurky or scummy. While I read Acio's push on and subsequent frustration with Seedy as townie, since the discussion was largely mechanical, I don't see Seedy's defense as being townie in and of itself. The towniest thing that I think Seedy's done is not relenting on Schaz in D2.
Justice Watch / Beruru - I honestly think JW's dumb roleplay scrubbing did as much to make to make me lean town as Beruru's read list. I feel like Mafia would want to keep their fake-role in their backpocket moreso than Town which would presume it as their default flavor. It's not a strong read by any means, though, and I want to see more from Beruru whose readlist honestly didn't give me any strong impression.
Can Lynch -
Schazer - I've waffled on Schazer a fair bit, but while I saw some thoughts that mirrored mine near the start of D2, there were some things I really, really disliked. Prodding for a potential Acio lynch when they were gunning for seedy, going after numbers without thoughts to a potential team, extremely half-hearted pressure on granola - there's basically just a lot of stuff that I see as pretty transparently Not Townie.
TehPilot - The only thing in their favor is that it would be a little weird for them to be on a team with Airey or Granola. I honestly don't have as strong of an opinion of their 'hammer' vote as x1372 did because it would be phenomenally stupid to hammer as scum and draw attention to themselves. OTOH, if they were actually paying attention to the votals and knew that it wouldn't actually end the day, then it's more just handing a potential hammer to someone else - which is WAY scummier as far as I'm concerned.
Granolaman - I have not seen a post from this duder that actually made me think that they're townie, and they've actually got a decent body of posts. There's a bunch of standoffish stuff that I just thought was outright shady, like the "hmm maybe" thing when Schaz suggested an Acio lynch and, like Pala, I don't have a clear view of who they actually think is townie, except unlike Pala I don't think they've done anything past very surface level analysis and discussions that were tied to mechanics over reads. Their suspect list as of today is frankly awful, since as far as I can tell it's strictly based on content quantity and then, well, me. Actually, yeah, I'm good with voting here.
Vote: Granola
Airey - I hated their post yesterday, though if their win cond is actual serial killer hunting it's at least consistent. I don't see any way that lynching them is bad, honestly, since even if they're telling the truth, they're not town. While it is giving us a lot of third parties, having them be aligned based on the D1 lynch is less number-affecting than their being assigned a third party alignment from the getgo, so I can see if at least fitting into the game. The other thing is that it was mentioned earlier that scum were given a townie role card to claim, so if they were mafia, I don't see why they wouldn't claim that as opposed to this whole third party nonsense. Their suppositions regarding power activations directly conflicting with my top two town reads makes me okay with lynching them, but I'm less enthusiastic about it even if it is fundamentally 'safe.'
Robust Laser - I essentially just agree with what Jacq said to them - if they're town, they're just not being useful. It's extremely difficult to try to get a read on a pity party, and while it may be genuine it's just not... helpful. I'd honestly rather lynch Granola, Pilot or Not the Author over them, but I wouldn't be miffed to see them die either.
Not The Author - I just don't get the impression that they're trying to find mafia. I gave them a lot of credit for voting for me and actually giving reasoning as to why since if nothing else it was opening up a new avenue of discussion (even if no one else bothered to talk more about it), but they only did so when called out by Acio for having ignored my posts to begin with, and, after reading through their posts in particular they have literally zero other analysis. The list they put together when directly asked for one by Pala didn't seem to have any rationale behind it. Like, at all. I don't see how they could have a town read on granola, and I definitely don't understand what 'not third party' is even supposed to mean.
I'm just gonna drop my read list here, grouped by category. Most of this is actually unchanged from yesterday.
Town - Do Not Lynch -
Coldblooded - Was the towniest essentially after Pharm's flip and continued being extremely painfully obviously town to the point that I'd consider them essentially clear. I don't think this read would be any reduced even before their doc claim.
Jacquerel - While less obvious than CB, I think they were also pretty clearly proactively town, and it does make sense to me that they'd be shot at just on account of being largely considered townie and therefore hard to ML.
Acionyx / x1372 - Acio was a pretty strong driver of early discussion, and while I didn't always view things from the same perspective, I largely agreed with their points after they explained them. More importantly, I think that their frustration in the Seedy argument was genuine, and I don't necessarily see a scum player getting so heavily invested in that awkward argument. x1372 as a sub seems to be similarly approaching things with townmind, so I'm pretty comfortable with their affiliation
Slorange - This one's mostly an empathy based read, but their actual content D2 posts basically mirrored my own thoughts on most of their reads before I'd posted to that effect, which just made me think that they were approaching the game from the same perspective. They claimed to have been targeted by a cleaning action and we know that Justice Watch roleplay claimed a janitorial role, but that doesn't really affect my read; just makes me curious about what JW did.
BlazerC / LordlyHour - Admittedly this one's mostly just based on their role claim, but I think that the way that they went about suggesting that they be lynched to shoot AC read as genuine. It's an extremely big risk for scum to take, especially when they were in 2nd rather than being the lynch leader at the time.
Solaris - I honestly have a hard time processing their posts just based on how they normally type for whatever reason, so I just glossed over most of their posts D1 and D2 except when I was looking at others interacting with them. Just their approach to Airey made me lean town, though, and now that I've actually made myself read their content, I'm much more confident in that.
Numbers - Not the strongest of reads, but I actually think they're town based mostly on their interactions with Pharms not reading as artificial / teammates to me. I do think that the fact that they're new is making them flop around a lot, but I have way lower expectations of their posts.
Null, leaning town -
Palamedes - I was considering putting Pala up in town on the null end, and they're where I'd say the line is. I think that the fact that they didn't give me a pass for posting walls of text is a big up in my book, but the reason that I don't want to say that they're town is just that I don't have a strong idea of who they suspect, if that makes sense. It's partially just an activity thing, but from Slorange for instance, even with what little we have it was very clearly 'these people are probably townie, these people are probably scum, here's why I think that,' whereas Pala seems much more opaque to me.
Seedy - Like Pala, more just someone that I don't have a great read on than someone that's been lurky or scummy. While I read Acio's push on and subsequent frustration with Seedy as townie, since the discussion was largely mechanical, I don't see Seedy's defense as being townie in and of itself. The towniest thing that I think Seedy's done is not relenting on Schaz in D2.
Justice Watch / Beruru - I honestly think JW's dumb roleplay scrubbing did as much to make to make me lean town as Beruru's read list. I feel like Mafia would want to keep their fake-role in their backpocket moreso than Town which would presume it as their default flavor. It's not a strong read by any means, though, and I want to see more from Beruru whose readlist honestly didn't give me any strong impression.
Can Lynch -
Schazer - I've waffled on Schazer a fair bit, but while I saw some thoughts that mirrored mine near the start of D2, there were some things I really, really disliked. Prodding for a potential Acio lynch when they were gunning for seedy, going after numbers without thoughts to a potential team, extremely half-hearted pressure on granola - there's basically just a lot of stuff that I see as pretty transparently Not Townie.
TehPilot - The only thing in their favor is that it would be a little weird for them to be on a team with Airey or Granola. I honestly don't have as strong of an opinion of their 'hammer' vote as x1372 did because it would be phenomenally stupid to hammer as scum and draw attention to themselves. OTOH, if they were actually paying attention to the votals and knew that it wouldn't actually end the day, then it's more just handing a potential hammer to someone else - which is WAY scummier as far as I'm concerned.
Granolaman - I have not seen a post from this duder that actually made me think that they're townie, and they've actually got a decent body of posts. There's a bunch of standoffish stuff that I just thought was outright shady, like the "hmm maybe" thing when Schaz suggested an Acio lynch and, like Pala, I don't have a clear view of who they actually think is townie, except unlike Pala I don't think they've done anything past very surface level analysis and discussions that were tied to mechanics over reads. Their suspect list as of today is frankly awful, since as far as I can tell it's strictly based on content quantity and then, well, me. Actually, yeah, I'm good with voting here.
Vote: Granola
Airey - I hated their post yesterday, though if their win cond is actual serial killer hunting it's at least consistent. I don't see any way that lynching them is bad, honestly, since even if they're telling the truth, they're not town. While it is giving us a lot of third parties, having them be aligned based on the D1 lynch is less number-affecting than their being assigned a third party alignment from the getgo, so I can see if at least fitting into the game. The other thing is that it was mentioned earlier that scum were given a townie role card to claim, so if they were mafia, I don't see why they wouldn't claim that as opposed to this whole third party nonsense. Their suppositions regarding power activations directly conflicting with my top two town reads makes me okay with lynching them, but I'm less enthusiastic about it even if it is fundamentally 'safe.'
Robust Laser - I essentially just agree with what Jacq said to them - if they're town, they're just not being useful. It's extremely difficult to try to get a read on a pity party, and while it may be genuine it's just not... helpful. I'd honestly rather lynch Granola, Pilot or Not the Author over them, but I wouldn't be miffed to see them die either.
Not The Author - I just don't get the impression that they're trying to find mafia. I gave them a lot of credit for voting for me and actually giving reasoning as to why since if nothing else it was opening up a new avenue of discussion (even if no one else bothered to talk more about it), but they only did so when called out by Acio for having ignored my posts to begin with, and, after reading through their posts in particular they have literally zero other analysis. The list they put together when directly asked for one by Pala didn't seem to have any rationale behind it. Like, at all. I don't see how they could have a town read on granola, and I definitely don't understand what 'not third party' is even supposed to mean.
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