The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

Well, I'm really disappointed that Acio actually got frustrated into quitting. Not just because they were a big driver for actual stuff to be happening, but also because this is my first serious mafia game in like 7? 8? years, and I've actually enjoyed it so far, from what little I've put into it.

So anyways, first of all I'm going to Unvote. I don't think that Blazer is scum for effectively volunteering to die for a lynch on AC. When they were like "Yeah, sure, lynch me" when they got a handful of votes on them, I was like "THIS IS OVERACTING" and was full in on their being scum, but their wanting to actually use their gun makes that actually make sense. I still dislike their reasoning for town-ing me, but that's much less of a push than the death thing.

Now that that's done, I'ma go make another quote wall.

-
These are all AC quotes and I don't know how to feel about them.

Show Content

Spoiler

Ah,

Well, after getting over the gut reaction of "this is absolutely wild", I'm still totally

okay with this

This hunter role claim... it doesn't seem like a scum gambit? It would make sense as a scumplay considering if it isn't challenged, it'll discourage some players from voting for 'em during dayphases but, like, I doubt anything this early on. (If it is a scumbit - whooh, geez. Madlad.) And I can't think of any scum roles that have this ability? So I'm feeling fine with that - I will say one thing though, which is BlazerC presents this as a kind of Final Ultimatum which I don't agree with. In fact, if what Blazer says is true (that he's town) why bother with this whole lynch-me-lynch-aC thing? It's better for town if only one player dies so wouldn't just a direct lynch be the better option?

And uh, nah, I'm not going to role reveal. Blazer, if you're dead-set on killing me when you "supposedly" get lynched end of D2, you'll find out then.

I dislike that AC shifted their read on Blazer to town without unvoting, and then their reads post was just all over the place off the wall

Show Content

Spoiler

ac if you’re just going to be 0kay with this then at least give us a list of reads on everyone so we have something to remember you by

Don't feel good about (scum): Numbers, Solaris, TehPilot, Airey, Granolaman [seems to be a general consensus of Shadiness abound these guys, which is good]
Town: Acio, Jacq, Sai, Blazer (apparently???)

And who knows about the rest, man?? (~~jwatch, ~NTA, ~+seedy, ~slorange, -RL, -Schazer, +CB)
~ can't tell
+ lean town
- lean scum

Pala(+?) - I think they were moderately active in D1 but their activity fell off a lot in D2. IDK if this is because of irl stuff but would be nice to see a more recent post from 'em (and the same goes for RL, really. Come on yalls)

I think Sol actually described it best as 'flailing,' given that his town list was, as far as I can tell, "people who have been making good posts recently" and his scum list was just outright bizarre based on the votes. To me, their posts in this whole area just read as having given up, but, like, I don't know if that's "townie that's given up and just straight up doesn't have a clue who the scum might be" or "scum that feels like they should keep posting." I really, really don't like their leaving their vote on Blazer while claiming to not think they're scum anymore.

I really disagree with Palamedes saying that it's plausibly a kill immunity thing, since AC explicitly stated they didn't expect Blazer to be lynched wrt their claim.

so tl;dr I think their apathy to being lynched is them giving up rather than anything else, which is a null read as far as I'm concerned, and their play had already just been kinda bad enough to make me not want them alive.

That's also why I kinda disagree with Schazer and Acio on saying it makes them townie. Apathy from exhaustion isn't a towntell.

I'm fine with lynching them, but since they're already past the threshold for that and I'm not interested in ending the day early, I won't put a vote on them.

--
Schaz stuff:

Show Content

Spoiler

hey granola and seedy here's a wild fuckening proposition

do we wanna lynch Aci

The gang over in Jestertimes managed to bring down Mirdini, it could be construed as A Sign

These are extremely bad posts. There was literally nothing scummy about Acio's posts, since thinking they have a bad meta interpretation should at worst be a null tell. The fact that Granola humored it is equally bizarre to me, and if anything I think the fact that he was noncommittal about it makes it even worse. I'd guess it was a joke if Schaz didn't actually vote for the duder and Granola's hemming over the possibility doesn't look like a joke either.

Laser jumping in with noncontent, and then responses -

Show Content

Spoiler

OKAY WAY BELATED "LET'S POST BEFORE SLEEPING" POST.

i'll be sort of jumping through the thread to try and remember/reconfirm things so if it seems a little disjointed it's because i'm probably editing the post in various places as i go

alright okay so so so

Iiiii think BlazerC is town now? This seems to not be a controversial opinion despite everything because being mafia wouldn't make sense to try and literally ask to be lynched. Some sort of mafia lynch-proc isn't completely out of the question, but unlikely at best. So, like, town a bit too eager to use their ability?? Orrr Jester. Either way, not in favor of lynching them. Did say I was never good with gambits.

sooo then like aC. At first I was like 'hey why so needlessly hostile against him' but like honestly the bringing up of talking about not liking d1 lynches and then jumping on the lynch bandwagon keeps being on my mind. Maybe just because of how I held a similar position and stuck to it. Seedy doesn't count there were a lot of threes going on this was Jokes. i like repeating numbers. fight me. less jokes and more aesthetic i guess. this is getting stupid.
Point is, it stuck out to me as weird. I guess that's my answer to the question way back when about my Q wagon opinion. Agree with idea that at least one person on there is scum and I have an opinion on the most notable member of the train.
oh yeah noticed another thing directed vaguely at me -- the 'everybody against me' thing was also jokes. I think I made one like, real post during all of day 1. But the one about how I was sure I'm the only townie I thought was really clear as literally just a joke??

like honestly i can just barely parse most of ac's reasoning behind a lot of things. I'm just gonna
vote: awkwardCarapace
unless something makes me feel otherwise

okay it's around here that i've gotten back to the second half of the night
aci starts out against me and like honestly i can't even be offended because like, yeah no i've done nothing. this is reasonable.
Right so the first big thing that happens is aci confidently declares that aC must be town, because they are smug. Claims a death-proc role. Deduces that means that aC must have a third death-proc. ....

actually wait fuck i don't even know if i can find this unlikely because I have suspicion that if I've got a secret part of my role it's death-proc? It's a theory based on barely anything but, hm. If death is a theme here, maybe. So maybe aci could be onto something here!
But! Let's continue on with where this ended up!
so like seedy refutes this idea, not necessarily that ac would have a death role so much as the fact that it means town. This somehow is read as aggressive enough to cause aci to vote for them. Then follows a whooooole lot of confidence about how scum would never be given a power that activates upon death because that'd just be unfair!! But like, if we do indeed have a theme going on with abilities... wouldn't it make sense if one of the scum were to have something like that? Especially if multiple townies have death-proc? Definitely not saying it's certain but I really really don't think it's something one could be certain to be not true. It's weird.
And then it's back and forth with a bunch of seedy saying something and aci seeming to completely misunderstand what's said and like it's been a while but i'm pretty sure aci is good at this so i don't even know what this communication breakdown is and like
But would it make sense for aci to be scum? Like, if ac flips scum, does that mean Aci is scum?? Going this incredibly hard on protecting another mafia would be like, suicide, and when you're already down one this early, is that smart? aC doesn't seem particularly concerned with self-preservation. So maybe Aci is just so convinced they have to be town that they are willing to stake their life on it. But with all the different reactions to the aC/Blazer scenario, lynching one of them does seem like it'll be interesting to look at the fallout regardless, right? And there's this whole thing with like "wow you're presenting POSSIBILITIES" which is fucking BIZARRE because he's treating death role = good guy as a fucking confirmed fact rather than another POSSIBILITY itself. I don't fucking get it what the hell is this.


and then aC claims they don't even have a death role so what is even the whole point of this??????????

Conclusion: i don't even fucking know. I want to know what aC is and then I have no clue what this means for aci, but it could look really bad, and if it does i don't know why it had to be this way!! And if aC is town then like, fuck i don't know. Congrats to those who opposed? *throws papers in the air*

misc thoughts on people other than our star fighters today
-solly early sided against blazerc, was on the q wagon. dunno if that means anything. could later. not sure i buy that hopping around lynches wouldn't make sense but i'm largely neutral on that. aci commented on seedy's vote for ac seeming like a potential bus vote but i could see sol's as that too if a scumflip. more reasons for me wanting to see aC flip.
-slorange actually i don't have a specific thing to say about them so much as the cleaning mention and i want to know if Justice Watchberuru does in fact have anything to do with it. Have to assume the flavor was outed from JW's post??


side note: i actually think the 3rd party lynch was only 75% good at most b/c they might have been a serial killer counter


this took me two hours to write. could have slept earlier but instead i was like 'oh i'll try donut county' before doing writing and instead of playing a couple of levels instead decided to play the entire game. i don't even think i wrote a particuarly illuminating piece of analysis whatever i'm done it's 6:30 am goodnight

Laser's post is extremely bad, but Jacq already pointed that out. I also don't like Seedy essentially going "hey good job kid," because that's giving Laser a huge benefit of the doubt that I'm not sure they deserve. They at least asked them to contribute more which is a hey-that's-nice thing, but if Laser's town I feel a lot less good about Seedy.

Show Content

Spoiler

yeah I’ve gotta say I don’t LOVE that post but I am glad you’re trying
RL I’d like it if you had a couple reads on people who haven’t been the main event? like how they reacted or commented to the situations and what you think of that. i.e. if you think ac is scum then what do you think of the people who haven’t voted them

I am glad beru’s back (back again)

I also just really disagree with Seedy regarding claims, because I just don't think that role stuff is even all that important to hide and the manner in which they share the information can be pretty good for reading. I'm not gonna say we should all mass-claim just yet, but I don't think that roles are nearly as important to hide in a game where everyone's got one, especially if you think your role has any useful evidence to whatever the argument is at hand.

--

Airey's post here is also really bad, actually. I somehow missed this in my first read through the thread, but now that I'm making a quote wall, it's quite possibly the Worst post today. They're just clearly not paying attention, and they're not even internally consistent about who they suspect.

Show Content

Spoiler

When I get lynched I take someone with me.

Yes I'm aware it's a role better suited for perhaps surviving until MYLO or something, but at this point either aC is Mafia and I get cleared making my role moot, or aC is town and I've bungled this up so much I doubt I'd survive long enough. And yes in that scenario, I could shoot for a Day 3 precision kill on my lynch but I also doubt my accuracy on anyone other than aC right now.

I've actually been somewhat afraid of dying, not because I'd be dead, but because I'm deathly afraid of the idea of accidentally killing a town power role in my vengekill.

People want us both dead regardless and I can understand why, so I offer the solution: Lynch me and I'll pop on aC. We both flip, town gets a lot of info and there's a high chance that one of us even mafia as well.

if scum kill me they explode so they shouldnt kill me just fyi

Hey nerds I just had an important setup realization that makes AC pretty super likely town based on behavior

Blazer's claimed DoB. I have a role that activates on death. AC is quite clearly smug because dying isn't actually a problem for them

Hope this helps.

SO, we have three people claiming on death role activation's, i find it extremely unlikely that all three are town. ( i might of missed more claims as i skim read to catch up) Of the three aci is still the most townie looking to me with blazerC is looking like scum and Solaris is still screaming third party.

i think ac is either banking on people moving the vote off which is why they are not worried or they have a one off save themselves power just waiting to go off.

it is good to see bears back, jw wasnt looking super good but bears reads ok for now. dont really agree with their vote right now since granola looks kind of neutral to me and there are better targets right now.

Anyone of one of these people who have on death powers is to be lynched today i figure we have a 2/3 chance of hitting someone not town aligned which to me is pretty good odds. Sol being the best target imo, the confidance they are showing is most likely coming from third party power tripping.

also sorry for not posting more, work just got really busy but i should be good now and dont need a replacement.

Sol's claim was obviously a joke.
Reading Blazer as scum for literally wanting to use a hunter power is wrong and bad.
JW had been roleplaying their role which Slorange said visited him, and while we don't know what that actually means, it's something that isn't worth ignoring if you want to actually bring JW's affiliation up.
Doubling down on wanting to lynch Sol while saying that they think Blazer is mafia makes this even worse, ESPECIALLY when the vote count showed Blazer having votes already.

Vote: Airey

I'm not done yet, but I doubt that I'll stop wanting to lynch Airey from what I remember of the rest of the thread.

--
Slorange -

Show Content

Spoiler

So, several people have put me as a null read, which is I think the most reasonable place to put me considering the dearth of opinions and accusations I've posted. Several people have put me as a light scum read, which is actually what I expected - and expected more people to - especially considering I've done stuff like put suspicion on somebody else for magic bagging in a post I basically do the same thing myself. I've been wondering where the town reads on me came from, and now I'm curious what Acio thought he saw and what other people's reasons for reading me as town are.

This day really is kind of a mess right now, especially since two players who would otherwise be important to the discussion either just got replaced or in the process of being replaced, so I'm very unsure about where to put my boat. I would probably be pretty easy to convince to get on board with the lynch of any of the following people, in no particular order: Granolaman, palamedes, Numbers, Robust Laser, or TehPilot. aC's staunch refusal two seemingly care about their imminent death makes me disinclined to be very excited about it myself, but we do definitely need to kill somebody and they're better than nobody. We're at the point in the day where we need to start gearing up for the actual lynch, so I'll vote: Granolaman so one of my preferred targets is at higher than 1 vote.

Airey made his post in the time I was making mine, and he is now replacing palamedes on my list.

I like most of Slorange's lynch list here except for Palamedes and Numbers, but he swaps Palamedes for Airey which is fine. I don't like that Palamedes was on it at all, but Pala's not like CB in being so clearly and painfully town that anyone that suspects them is suspicious. I've actually been getting more of a townread on Slorange with each post he makes just by virtue of having really similar reads in general, but I might also just be empathizing. I'll call slorange town-lite.

--

Show Content

Spoiler

I'd personally die for numbers but that's up to the replacement who's taking over after this convo ends

I wouldn't, but I do agree with why Acio thinks that they're town.