The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21]

I dunno, unless a pack of tragically-underinformed townies* push for what's sure to be a mislynch on D1 (cuz none of today's wagon-approximate targets have struck me as being blatantly obvious scum) aren't we all just prodding at each other seeing if anyone's fool enough to crack this early waiting for an actual flip?


*I say with decent confidence, cuz if we had an actual D1 lynch on our hands (given the current state of things where nobody's reallly looking like a valid target) I'm p. sure scum wouldn't be ballsy enough to stick a vote on it

Like. With soft lynch of 6, given the number of substantive contributators who've chimed in today I think a hypothetical Massive Target could actually be dragged into the Hammerzone and manage to do it without any scum being forced to put something concrete like a vote on the board.

What I'm saying is, before I pissed in some vinegar and dumped the resulting concoction into the wine of the situation, if I got given the 6+ Essential Measurements for a bespoke tailored D1 noose, I'd be pretty confident that the six seamstresses in question were all town and due to be the target of an undue amount of questioning come D2 for the general benefit of scum.

I don't think that a random lynch is a guaranteed mislynch, and even if you were 100% right, 1 dead townie is easily worth 6 clears. I don't think that the hit or power claims will do us more good than an actual lynch, any lynch, in terms of actually giving information, that there's literally no good reason to wait to get that information, and that even if you do think that any sort of D1 lynch is ass, that it would at least get us more information wrt actually using powers.

Or, actually, I think I get it now. You're saying that Reyweld not factoring in the possibility that one of the two existing wagons was already scum and that numbers would have wanted to divert the lynch from a potential teammate is something that only town would do, because scum would be more conscientious about the possibility of diverting a lynch from a teammate, right? I don't actually agree with the reasoning (if that is the argument), because scum could also just as easily know that both wagons are town and therefore not think of that as being a reason to try to push another lynch.

I think scum's more cautious about things that are easy enough to think twice on, especially when they get asked about it and given a chance to clarify, town's more likely to blank

I'm actually still not sure I follow, though I might just be tired. I don't think that Reyweld blanked there, even if you disagree with his reasoning.

What's your feel on coldblooded 93?

That said, I don't see numbers as particularly noteable. Why would you point out them versus Acionyx or Airey?

I'm not sure why you picked out Acio and Airey in particular, but both of them cast their votes super early before we had anything to go on, and have both at least been making token efforts at activity since then. It's not really the same thing at all? Honestly the people who look most similar to Numbers right now are probably Sai and RL, I just chose Numbers over the two of them because they were the only one who voted for someone I had a light townread on.

Where did the Numbers/Acio/Airey connection come from Reyweld?

I think that with that post on its own, that it's weird that he linked total lack of content with behavior that he found to be actively scummy, but I think that this post was much better -

If Numbers wanted to support a bandwagon, they should have put their vote on one of the other 2 existing wagons with 3 votes on them, rather than bring another wagon to 3. As a potential scum tactic, it has only risk and no reward.

See I'm actually thinking the exact opposite, scum strategy at this early in the game is less "Try to push a wagon and get a townie lynched" and more "Don't get noticed, wait for dayend, let town wallow in RVS all day if possible".

Wagons that build up out of nowhere early D1 rarely actually end in lynches, but if one of those wagons starts climbing up into softlynch territory then people might actually start investigating it and asking if there were any scum pushing it. But on the other hand, four competing RVS wagons with three votes each? That's nothing, who gives a shit. No one's gonna be cross-referencing that in 4 weeks.

I read the followup as saying that any sort of lack-of-content is scummy, which is, well, neither really useful nor contentious, but I'd still feel more comfortable with CB if he'd led with that.

I'm also interested in what he'll say now that there's more content to look at.

No thanks.

no thanks because you think everyone will be like " yeah na" and lynch you instead or because you are scared to hit town and then get lynched for a bad call/suspected of scum?

right now i doubt we will hit hard lynch for d1 and the soft lynch will be the factor. it would be bad if we go without a lynch d1.

I'm a little surprised Airey didn't vote for Slorange here.

Honestly i almost did but i wanted to wait and hear his answer before i did or not.

I understand not liking d1 lynch because the odds of hitting town are to high and its not like anyone will scumslip this early. however the more information we have going into d2 the better. right now we also do not know night actions like if there is a vig or how many bodys can show up.

Also i like my spider avatar and it look nothing likes schazers bird thing.

It seemed like such a leading question / accusation that your casual acceptance of his reply seems weird, especially since you didn't follow up on his reply until just now.

Vote: Schazer

AC, Seedy, Sai, Numbers ask me things and I'll look at them tomorrow also please tell me what you think of tehpilot

Also also if you could have one player's alignment revealed at daystart tomorrow who would you want it to be (anyone else is invited to answer this if they want)

Yeah, okay. I was actually looking through the thread for a good post to ask you about and found tehPilot's at #188, but then rediscovered that you were asking what we thought of tehPilot so I'll find another one.

Alright, here, do you have a read on Palamedes? In particular this post -

I meant that adding to another bandwagon would be a bad scum tactic, yes.

If their goal was to avoid attention D1 they could have just Not Done That without any sort of risk. If their goal was to further a D1 lynch, they would have picked either of the two wagons with 3 votes.

Palamedes, CB, Blazer opinions on this?

I... kind of see where you're going with this? I mean it's more than most people have done so far, but I don't think Reyweld is new enough to this to be completely blind. Past that, it's a sort of simple defence without any bite to it so Reyweld could have just been throwing it out knowing that there was almost no way it would be taken bad in the long run. I'm still somewhat interested in hearing the correlation between you/Airey to Numbers since unlike what both Coldblooded and Reyweld said I don't think any of you really just made a single vote and were gone otherwise (at least, not compared to anyone else) and that's the main thing that probably makes me feel weird about the entire exchange on both sides.

Speaking of Numbers, I'm not a huge fan of how they immediately buddied up to Coldblooded just now for questioning them. Vote: Numbers

(Just lost the rest of this post and am going to bed so I'll tl;dr it):
Coldblooded looks good for Numbers looking strange
Airey looks good for joining in on Acio's question time without prompting
People making no content posts and nothing else at this point make me uneasy
Q stands out for looking like he's trying to be helpful but is completely ignoring discussion topics (of which this is sort of the only major one to be fair) is weird, Q what are your thoughts on this whole Reyweld debate and related posts?

If Slorange won't be Caesar I'll do it for him. Who's being gladiatored again?

To answer your first question, I don't actually have a great read on TehPilot. His post was okay in that he gave at least some reasoning for voting for Q and the Q/numbers votes on me were both weird, but it's an extremely safe position to take if he actually thought that a wagon on me might go through. I was finna ask your thoughts on it.

To answer your second, if it were a personal report, I'd cop seedy because I'm completely null on their posts. If it were a public cop, I'd pick you both to make sure that discussion didn't get masterminded and to get a useful clear early if you're town. I'd be willing to take the bet that a game this size would have a protective role.

I'm leaning Acio with Numbers as a close second. On the first, you've essentially ignored me and the suspicion about me which suggests to me, amongst other options, that perhaps you're playing into previous meta (could go either way), or don't really want to deal with my nonsense without more info (i.e. town), or you're saving me as an easy mislynch on a later day (i.e. scum). Numbers is a close second simply because it'd answer a lot of questions I find myself having.

If either of the two were likely to be town, what conclusions / other value would you get by clearing them?