RE: Nostalgfia Day 5 - Flies like an arrow
07-06-2018, 09:06 PM
(07-06-2018, 08:24 PM)seedy Wrote: »also mirdini approximately how many scum do you think are left? I’m less experienced in judging these things but I kind of want a ballpark
At a guess? With 20 players we're probably dealing with 4-5 mafia members; especially in a game as filled with items and misdirection as this one is. Would probably err on the side of 5 i.e. 25% of players - 6 or 30% feels too high, since all you'd need (assuming a completely vanilla game) is 4 straight mislynches and town would lose. 5 is more the going rate from my experience.
There could well be 5 mafia and 1 or even 2 3Ps out of 20 players though. For the record Quarantine had 28 players and 8 mafia (and 2 third parties), with a mafia:total player percentage of 28.5% - but that was with two of the mafia being lovers and a town packed with nothing but power roles. Though this game does seem to have every townie running around with a power role (that has flipped so far, at least).
Taking a bit to write this post bc I'm not at home so don't have my documents to hand but thanks to the Wayback Machine:
Quotefia had 27 players, 7 mafia (~26%). Samurai Mafia had 18 players and 4 mafia, though I probably would've gone with 5 if I ran it again, but again still less than 30%.
So worst case scenario there could be 4 mafia players left, best case 2, likeliest case 3 (maybe with a third party thrown in assuming Robotnerd likes 3Ps at all).