RE: Post making contest 6.0
11-23-2017, 08:50 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2017, 08:51 PM by Kíeros.)
Arctic: Winds continue to gradually move east across the Kivalliq, with blizzard conditions finally ended. Poor visibilities in blowing snow at times will taper off this afternoon. Over Baffin Island, main weather maker is a longwave trough interacting with a plume of Atlantic moisture near the Cumberland Peninsula. This interaction is producing a broad area of light snow with localised orographic enhancement where the east-southeast winds meet the terrain. Models have handled this fairly poorly, bouncing between warning-level snowfalls and next to nothing for both Pangnirtung and Qikiqtarjuaq. Thankfully, things are panning out as forecast by the PASPC with a general area of light now with rates near two to four cm per twelve hours. Pangnirtung recieved 2.2cm of snow overnight, and has continued to receive snow with one to two mile visibilities, and the climate site has received 1.7mm of precipitation, so snowfall rates continue as expected. In the end, these communities will see some snow, but far less than the warning-level event that models had suggested earlier.
Blizzard conditions will continue at Resolute into tonight. WInds should start easing up near midnight and conditions should improve then. At Grise Fiord, the optimum setup for gusty east winds have passed. The wind warning there will be ended with the early afternoon update.
Prairies: Mild are now pushing eastwards across the prairies as Pacific air floods over the Rockies in the warm sector of the northern Alberta low. As it often is when temperatures become warmer than they ought to be when the sun angle is low, strong to severe winds are spreading from the Southern Foothills eastwards across southern Alberta and into southwestern Saskatchewan. They will likely see their progress halted at that point as they run into darkening skies and snow-covered ground. Through the afternoon, however, the PASPC forecasts that wind gusts will exceed 90kph and have issued wind warning for the areas expected to be impacted.
Between the strong winds and the frontal boundaries are a mix of sun, cloud, fog, and light snow or isolated freezing drizzle. Across the central prairies attention turns to freezing rain. As the warm front pushes eastwards across the prairies, it has supported an area of freezing rain with observations in Buffalo Narrows, La Ronge, and in Fort McMurray. This band of freezing rain will spread southeastwards through the day, cutting across eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, the northern Interlake, and eastwards to the Ontario border. While the intensity is expected to be relatively low, the duration--especially in the eastern prairies where it could persist for more than six hours in some locations--may prove to be the significant factor. Total amounts are still expected to be relatively minor with a maximum expected accumulation near two to three mm, which would be isolated in nature. The freezing that occurred over the Edmonton area this morning was a bit different. The upper air soundings at Stony Plain showed a good potential for a warm season type rain event but with very cold ground temperatures, the liquid precip spread and froze with ground contact. The net result was widespread icy roadways and sidewalks. Current radar shows the bright band is starting to weaken and much of the organised rain is moving towards the Saskatchewan border. Later this afternoon we will still have freezing rain warnings extending from eastern Alberta through Ontario along a narrow band.
Lastly, heavy snow is spreading eastwards through the northern prairies. Ten to fifteen cm expected to fall along a swath through northern Alberta, southeastern Mackenzie, northern Saskatchewan, and northwestern Manitoba. Along the southern edge of the snow envelope, precipitation is expected to mix with ice pellets and lower SLRs limiting the snowfall accumulations to the south of the warned areas.
In southern Alberta, rain will be the predominant precipitation type, except over higher elevations of the Icefields Parkway, where five to ten cm of snow is possible.
Tonight, the Vancouver Island shortwave will ride the ridge apex along the US border supporting an area of showers. It will reach southern Manitoba on Friday morning, supporting an area of rain that will track across the Trans-Canada Highway corridor and areas south. In its wake, a cold front will sweep southeastwards across the prairies, bringing flurries and gusty northwesterly winds as temperatures return to near-seasonal values for many locations.
Blizzard conditions will continue at Resolute into tonight. WInds should start easing up near midnight and conditions should improve then. At Grise Fiord, the optimum setup for gusty east winds have passed. The wind warning there will be ended with the early afternoon update.
Prairies: Mild are now pushing eastwards across the prairies as Pacific air floods over the Rockies in the warm sector of the northern Alberta low. As it often is when temperatures become warmer than they ought to be when the sun angle is low, strong to severe winds are spreading from the Southern Foothills eastwards across southern Alberta and into southwestern Saskatchewan. They will likely see their progress halted at that point as they run into darkening skies and snow-covered ground. Through the afternoon, however, the PASPC forecasts that wind gusts will exceed 90kph and have issued wind warning for the areas expected to be impacted.
Between the strong winds and the frontal boundaries are a mix of sun, cloud, fog, and light snow or isolated freezing drizzle. Across the central prairies attention turns to freezing rain. As the warm front pushes eastwards across the prairies, it has supported an area of freezing rain with observations in Buffalo Narrows, La Ronge, and in Fort McMurray. This band of freezing rain will spread southeastwards through the day, cutting across eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, the northern Interlake, and eastwards to the Ontario border. While the intensity is expected to be relatively low, the duration--especially in the eastern prairies where it could persist for more than six hours in some locations--may prove to be the significant factor. Total amounts are still expected to be relatively minor with a maximum expected accumulation near two to three mm, which would be isolated in nature. The freezing that occurred over the Edmonton area this morning was a bit different. The upper air soundings at Stony Plain showed a good potential for a warm season type rain event but with very cold ground temperatures, the liquid precip spread and froze with ground contact. The net result was widespread icy roadways and sidewalks. Current radar shows the bright band is starting to weaken and much of the organised rain is moving towards the Saskatchewan border. Later this afternoon we will still have freezing rain warnings extending from eastern Alberta through Ontario along a narrow band.
Lastly, heavy snow is spreading eastwards through the northern prairies. Ten to fifteen cm expected to fall along a swath through northern Alberta, southeastern Mackenzie, northern Saskatchewan, and northwestern Manitoba. Along the southern edge of the snow envelope, precipitation is expected to mix with ice pellets and lower SLRs limiting the snowfall accumulations to the south of the warned areas.
In southern Alberta, rain will be the predominant precipitation type, except over higher elevations of the Icefields Parkway, where five to ten cm of snow is possible.
Tonight, the Vancouver Island shortwave will ride the ridge apex along the US border supporting an area of showers. It will reach southern Manitoba on Friday morning, supporting an area of rain that will track across the Trans-Canada Highway corridor and areas south. In its wake, a cold front will sweep southeastwards across the prairies, bringing flurries and gusty northwesterly winds as temperatures return to near-seasonal values for many locations.
![[Image: nifOFwR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/nifOFwR.png)
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