RE: This is gonna be the thread where we talk about stuff
02-09-2016, 06:29 PM
Always for completely arbitrary reasons*
Iowa basically doesn't matter at all on a national level for the majority of the time, being low in population, size, and wealth, but...
I think even most Americans don't realize how stupid, complicated, and resistant to change our system is. I firmly believe at this point the primary reason Iowa wants to stay first is just the money the attention brings, given that the Iowa results are a pretty poor predictor of how the overall race will go.
Iowa basically doesn't matter at all on a national level for the majority of the time, being low in population, size, and wealth, but...
Quote:In 1972, the revised Democratic rules coming out of the 1968 debacle required that notice be given of caucuses and primaries that would select party delegates. Prior to that, party bosses could schedule primaries without telling anyone. But the new rules required a 30-day requirement. Iowa’s system has four parts — the caucus, then the county convention, then the congressional district conventions, then the state conventions — so, to give a 30-day notice for all of them, Iowa had to start advertising early.The second part, the state convention, is normally held in June. In 1972, they looked and found there were no available hotel rooms in Des Moines on the planned weekend. So they pushed the convention back. And that meant they had to push the caucuses back. And that’s how they ended up in January, in front of New Hampshire. It was not a plan, and in 1972, it made no difference. Edmund Muskie spent about a day there. But in 1976, Jimmy Carter’s campaign noticed Iowa was first and decided to invest some time. He ultimately came in second to uncommitted, but his win got him attention, and ultimately helped him get to the White House.
Iowa’s two parties realized very early on that this was advantageous, so they agreed to hold their caucuses on the same day. And then they wrote into Iowa law that the caucuses must be the first event. New Hampshire’s laws say they have to be the first primary, which is what lets Iowa stay in front. But both say they’ll go as early as they have to go.
[E]very cycle we have this question of whether somebody will try and leapfrog or jump ahead and that’s how we get frontloading. The national parties try to penalize those who do that. [In 2012], for instance, Florida [only got] half of its delegates because it violated the rules by trying to go early. So the system stays in stasis through a combination of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guarding their privileges and the national parties penalizing anyone who tried to change the status quo.
I think even most Americans don't realize how stupid, complicated, and resistant to change our system is. I firmly believe at this point the primary reason Iowa wants to stay first is just the money the attention brings, given that the Iowa results are a pretty poor predictor of how the overall race will go.