Frozen Hearts Mafia [Family Ties - Mafia/Survivor Victory]

The alternative was allowing smashball to live with a fakeclaim that would fall to pieces the moment either a real tracker counterclaimed or he was seen at the scene of another crime and thus dooming Garuru as well for not reporting the kill attempt.

Personally I think he made the right decision going for his own townfirm. Cunning move overall on scum's part. Too bad we're not on the same side.

I'd like to think that the world where Scum!Gar went for the teamkill (likely on teammates orders) is marginally more realistic than a world where we have two claimed bp's and scum never tried to get rid of him afterwards.

Why would smash ball be visiting his own teammate on night one in that world?

Because Garuru is a traitor, hence the no kill report.

Because Garuru is a traitor, hence the no kill report.

So traitor garu literally survives a kill in the night, maker outs only one visit to him and he decides the best option at the time is to murder his teammate to death

Also this requires a scumteam with both potential extra night kills and access to a daykill

hahahaha ha ha ha

ha ha

ha

honestly im kind of glad that you fought my claim. would be too boring if people just let me coast.

Thirdly, the townfirm itself. Garuru himself admits to just coasting on his townfirm instead of trying to do as much good as physically possible before his inevitable death. The thing is though, scum hasn't tried to kill him. He's been a "townfirm" for three days and scum is instead pursuing such lofty kills as Affle and MV. The only thing that'd negate this particular piece of evidence is if we get a busdriver claim from someone (other than Eido) that confirmed that one of their targets was killed.

Maybe scum hasn't tried to kill me because I'm possibly a bulletproof and they don't want to waste another kill? Maybe, instead, they're trying to lynch me because I'm not immune to lynches and I'm a dangerous and unpredictable role? Like what you are trying to do to me. But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and answer /some/ of your questions.

Secondly, his behavior on D1/D2. On D1 he claimed having a kill that recharges so long as he hits scum with it. D2 he hits scum. Where's his recharge? It's been three whole days since he shot it last; no balanced skill takes that long to reload. Yes he did hit scum with his bullet, but he didn't reveal that he'd been shot at until after Maker brought up the visit. At that point he didn't really have much choice so he claimed bulletproof (which, conveniently, is also in a state of recharge flux) and took out smashball.

Yes, I was lying when I said my kill recharges. Thought that was a bit obvious? My actual role is that I gain conditional bulletproofs and vigs based on a certain set of secret hush-hush scenarios. Both conveniently happened N1. And didn't happen since, I guess.

Anyways yeah lynch the fuck out of Granola please.

On the Pala thing, I'm more inclined to say he was scum because, y'know, he got lynched. Majority of people thought he was scum. Thinking he was town puts you in the minority. And guess which faction is in the minority? (Okay, this is a terrible reason, ignore this.) But for now it's safe to assume he was more likely scum than town until proven otherwise. Meaning Acio is more likely town than scum until proven otherwise. And honestly, the way you're trying so hard to (mis)lynch Acio /before/ Pala flips makes me think that yeah Pala's scum and Acio's town, and you're trying to take down a town leader while you have this opportunity.

Reading back, many of my doubts were instigated by your side of this whole schism a.k.a. Pala supporters.

Obviously didn't survive the kill. Kills targeting traitors traditionally turn into recruitments. Bad argument is bad and incriminating.

Second point slightly more valid, potentially a multiple daykill power that got axed when he was recruited? This would offset the lack of a serial killer though admittedly the scumteam's getting pretty OP at this point. The alternative is that Visceral's the traitor but given the way the two of them have been playing I'm much more inclined to favor Town!MV over Town!Gar

Previewedit: Jesus Christ Garuru that is literally the worst defense of Acio I've heard yet, and we've had Eido's "I just want to believe he's town" shtick. Majority did NOT believe Pala was scum we had two inactives and a third party who didn't want Acio lynched for selfish reasons. And I'm fucking TRYING to prove Acio/Pala's alignment because if we wait for Pala's flip (which is likely controlled by scum re:bookfia) then we're not going to know before it's too fucking late!

Obviously didn't survive the kill. Kills targeting traitors traditionally turn into recruitments.

To repeat:

A kill was directed at garu and he did not die from it

If a kill was /not/ directed at him then where did it go and again, why was smash ball visiting him

It's literally the opposite of safest to say Pala was scum until proven otherwise because if he was town then we're at Mislynch and Kingmaker LIKE I'VE BEEN SAYING ALL DAMN DAY.

Is there anything besides "he's voting me" bias to actually place MV over Garu in likelyhood of being Town? Because I'm not seeing it. I mean, if you're going to assume Pala was Town you should also assume he shot Vic, not Scum (and that's really the biggest town tell Vic has.)

Still other times, if the Mafia attempts to kill their Traitor the Traitor is instead recruited into the Mafia

You know this is completely within the range of possibility your obtuseness is only digging you deeper.

Prevedit: MV gets the bias because Garuru's been pinging my scumdar all over the last two days and MV is actually recognizing the value of Acio's lynch. He and Kiven are also not quickhammering my lynch so if Garuru were town I'd be dead by now.

It's literally the opposite of safest to say Pala was scum until proven otherwise because if he was town then we're at Mislynch and Kingmaker LIKE I'VE BEEN SAYING ALL DAMN DAY.

So, what, everyone's town until proven otherwise? How would we find scum???

It isn't really safe to assume Pala is town either, because, even if we are farther away from overrun in that case, scum are still out there, and you run the risk of being misled by the scumteam into mislynching whoever voted for false!town!Pala.

If you can think of a guaranteed solution to not getting MYLO'd tomorrow then I'm all for it. But until then, with nothing in concrete, I'm going to keep scumhunting like usual. Pala being scum doesn't really change anything. Pala being town would require a near-complete inversal of the way we're thinking. Therefore, if I think Pala is scum, then I will continue my hunting based on that assumption.

Previewedit: Jesus Christ Garuru that is literally the worst defense of Acio I've heard yet, and we've had Eido's "I just want to believe he's town" shtick. Majority did NOT believe Pala was scum we had two inactives and a third party who didn't want Acio lynched for selfish reasons. And I'm fucking TRYING to prove Acio/Pala's alignment because if we wait for Pala's flip (which is likely controlled by scum re:bookfia) then we're not going to know before it's too fucking late!

It wasn't really a defense? I mean, I will concede that Acio does not look super-town either (contrary to what I was implying in my earlier post) but the very fact that you are so aggressive over his lynch today practically clears him in my opinion.

Okay here's my guaranteed solution:

We only reach MYLO tomorrow if there's 4 scum alive. There is one benign third party and no SK: game balance suggests roughly 5 scum total in the game.

Due to Acio's claim, there's a guaranteed dichotomy between Pala and Acio.

If Pala was scum then there're only 3 scum left in the game. Lynching a town!Acio today would not result in a MYLO tomorrow.

If Pala was town then there're 4 scum left in the game. Not lynching scum today would result in Kingmaker MYLO tomorrow.

Given the dichotomy, an Acio lynch would guarantee that there're only 3 scum left tomorrow. Additionally, given how strongly divided the players are on the issue, Acio's lynch and subsequent reveal will net enough information to clear a number of players, condemn more, and potentially enough info to finish the game.

Therefore, an Acio lynch is the best option available to town right now.

You know this is completely within the range of possibility your obtuseness is only digging you deeper.

Again:

If a kill was directed at garu and did not kill him (via turning into a recruitment) then why would he respond to a watcher result by immediately shooting a teammate

Maker claimed only one result. He didn't claim it in a way that indicated there were any questions about it (as in he didn't act as though he saw multiple visits that bring "who was what" into question)

SO:

Why would a newly recruited scum daykiller immediately respond to the result by shooting his teammate when a result like that would /support/ most claims SB could have made

Vs: A bulletproof daykiller got shot and got confirmation of who did it so they blew his head off

@Granola: That's... a pretty glass house from someone complaining about bad arguments. Even if he was here, (has he even posted recently?) there'd be no reason for Scum!Vic to quickhammer you, this isn't MYLO. And there's only value in an Acio lynch if you assume it's possible Pala was Town... and that is a weird assumption for the guy who voted to lynch Pala. Vic did that, did you miss it? Or, you know, the whole "lynch Vic" stance Pala took yesterday which you keep ignoring.

Worth noting:

I don't disagree with vic's logic about lynching me and it's a perfectly workable solution

If we do that then absolutely lynch granola tomorrow because he's descended into fighting pretty much the best town confirmation available in the game and gotten irascible when holes in his logic on it are pointed out. And then retreated into trying to bargain for a lynch based on it being least-worst versus actually presenting a case

Because the kill had to go somewhere, no one else was gonna claim being shot and the moment smashball flipped he would've brought Garuru down with him.

I don't know smashball, but it didn't look like he was playing particularly well. Odds were high that unless he pulled off a successful blind fakeclaim he was gonna get lynched. You probably advised Garu to do it to cut your losses from the watching and snag himself a handy town clear.

I fucking presented a case yesterday and not enough people believed it/I argued with the wrong people. So yes, I have now resorted to cold hard logic because that is the only way to bring you down outside of a public daycopping.

And to Oz up there yes it is fucking LYLO cuz if we mislynch then Kiven can joint with the scum faction and if we no lynch then scum+Kiven can hang the vote tomorrow. This is why all the buddying is showing up because scum only needs one more hard push today to win the game.

Hypothetically we could lynch Kiven and still play tomorrow but then we end up at LYLO and while I'm convinced and convicted enough to put down the rest of scum afterwards I can't say town as a whole is, and one stray vote dooms us all.

So yes I'm fighting like it's LYLO because it is fucking LYLO. And I'm gonna keep fighting the entire scumteam until we lynch Acio or I collapse from exhaustion.

re: Granola

I suppose that logic is pretty sound but that's not a solution. That's more of an extension, but with more information than before. Plus, you're forgetting the possibility of an extra "brutal kill", whoch would put us straight into MYLO tomorrow even if Acio was scum.

Still. With the scum/town dichotomy, we cannot predict whether acio was town or scum, outside of tells. Same goes for you, and every other player I suppose. Therefore, how would lynching Acio be better than, say, someone who reads scummy? Like, according to your logic, me?

I've done a long bit of thinking, and I've concluded that, while your option is the "safe" lynch, it also has low payoff, as the result would always be 1 town and 1 scum dead. Where, if we lynch someone we think is scummier than Acio, we have a potential payoff of 2 scum dead. However, it is also possible to have 2 town dead, if we mislynch and Pala is town.

Still, the safe option would just leave us in the same place as before, and I do strongly believe Pala and Granola are both scum, so I will continue lynching Granola. It's up to everybody else whether to go "safe" or go "risky", considering that the risky option has a higher potential payoff.

And this is why you're the final scum on my list.

for what, arguing against logic with logic?

Because the kill had to go somewhere, no one else was gonna claim being shot and the moment smashball flipped he would've brought Garuru down with him.

Garu didn't explicitly claim bulletproof before maker said anything about smash ball:

it's pretty likely the doctor protected me and scum tried to kill me. i mean, i was a claimed vig, after all. so um if that happened then good job doctor and all that. (don't thank me openly though, keep your head down)

then again it could just have been a bulletproof on someone else but who else would scum kill?

like i said, kinda pointless to speculate on night mechanics when youre town.

So no he wouldn't have been sunk the second smash ball went down

Motg saw only smashball at Garuru's so no doctor.
Smashball's only action at night was to kill.
Garuru didn't claim bulletproof until he shot at smashball.

If smash had been lynched without Garuru claiming bp and returning fire then that doesn't leave a whole lot of options as to what smashball did N1.

Vote: Granola

All of this arguing about Garuru being the last scum is insane.