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Solaris · 09-20-2018, 11:54 PM

Niall who have you targeted, why shouldn't we lynch you, and in the meantime,

Vote: beruru
Elect: Coldblooded

Niall · 09-21-2018, 12:12 AM

(09-20-2018, 11:23 PM)Jacquerel Wrote: »Hi Niall why haven't the mafia shot you yet?

Excuse me? Oh no, no, no. I might have been gone for a while but don't even try that interrogative shtick on me. I'm an old hat at this, lest you forget. I've received at least one vote every day and everyone's read on me thus far has been middling at best with many people saying I've acted suspicious. I'm an easy, lazy lynch for someone who wants to get this day over with before we have time to examine the facts. A far more pressing question is why haven't you been shot yet Jac? Considering that the only vote you've received this entire time was a joke vote from your... spouse (I think I have the correct two people. You and Solaris right? Happened over the weekend, yes? Congrats to you both). You've had no attention cast your way since then and would make a much harder lynch. So why are you, Coldblooded, Palamedes and SleepingOrange all still alive? Between the four of you, you barely have two votes to your name this entire game. Any one of you would be much harder to lynch I would think. And yet here we are, Sai getting offed despite having 2 votes to their name and a hell of a lot of attention Day 1. I do not understand that part. Perhaps the mafia are trying to cast suspicion on Granolaman as Sai voted for them Day 3?

So when I entered this game I had 34 pages to get through. I skimmed a lot of it but kept a track of a tally of who's voted for whom. TehPilot strikes me as obvious town because no-one votes for their own scum team on Days 1, 2 and 3 like Pilot did to Airey unless you're cursed or something. I also can't see Solaris being scum seeing as that Airey voted for them Days 2 and 3. Granolaman was looking good to me even before they shot Airey in broad daylight and now I'm pretty comfortable with them being town. At least for now.

Given that fact I've decided to vote for the person who has voted for the players I trust the most so far. Beruru has only voted for two people: Granolaman on Day 2 and 3 and TehPilot on Day 3 despite the fact TehPilot all but lead the lynch on Airey. Beruru has received votes from LordlyHour and Granolaman Day 1, Palamedes Day 2 and nothing Day 3. Vote: Beruru Don't like who you've voted for and more importantly don't like when you voted for them. OK, I'm late for work now. Bye.

Niall · 09-21-2018, 12:16 AM

(09-20-2018, 11:54 PM)Solaris Wrote: »Niall who have you targeted, why shouldn't we lynch you, and in the meantime,

Vote: beruru
Elect: Coldblooded

Oh right, I forgot people might post things while I'm typing. Been a while. Uh, really gotta dash. Have I claimed something? Like I said, 34 pages. My read through focused on who voted for who. I ain't talking about the night unless Numbers already claimed a roll. OK, bye!

Jacquerel · 09-21-2018, 01:05 AM

I was shot, did you like forget that
they didn’t try a second time yet

Jacquerel · 09-21-2018, 01:06 AM

Like I know you just had to read a lot of pages but we spent a lot of yesterday talking about it

Jacquerel · 09-21-2018, 01:09 AM

The reason I’m asking why you haven’t been shot was that you claimed a protective role for no reason on day one and Mafia have had plenty of time to murder you since
I know you just had to read a lot of posts but your response so far wasn’t a very good one
although I guess forgetting who your team shot is presumably something you would check and isn’t something mafia would do so easily so you have that going for you

Granolaman · 09-21-2018, 01:22 AM

(09-21-2018, 12:12 AM)Niall Wrote: »A far more pressing question is why haven't you been shot yet Jac?

Do you mean shot again? Cuz unless you think Jac and CB staged a no-kill gambit while they were in neck-and-neck competition for towniest townsperson of townsville, Jac and CB got clears.

Since we're no longer trying to pretend it didn't come up here's Numbers' claim as a refresher:

(08-23-2018, 07:28 PM)Numbers Wrote: »because according to my role I'm a person who prays to some deity to prevent the killing or lynching of another person.

Sai's flip puts the kibosh on my Blazergate theory, guess I'm starting from scratch. Meanwhile:
Vote: Schazer
Elect: x1372
Time to go thread diving!

Mirdini · 09-21-2018, 01:49 AM

IT'S ELECTION TIME Votals

beruru - 2 (Solaris, Niall)
Schazer - 1 (Granolaman)

Abstaining - 11 (seedy, SleepingOrange, Coldblooded, Palamedes, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, LordlyHour, Schazer, TehPilot, x1372, beruru)

With 14 players alive it takes 8 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch.

ELECTION Votals

Coldblooded - 1 (Solaris)
x1372 - 1 (Granolaman)

Abstaining - 12 (seedy, SleepingOrange, Coldblooded, Palamedes, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer, TehPilot, x1372, beruru)

Day ends in 114 hours, at 10pm CET on Tuesday, September 25.

Day End Countdown

Coldblooded · 09-21-2018, 02:19 AM

Folks please, it's still way too early to be playing the Why Aren't You Dead Yet wine drinking game. Scum's only had three kills so far and none of them have been particularly groundbreaking imo.

Like so far we've got:
Reyweld - Widely considered town, not high profile enough to be an obvious protection choice.
Jacquerel - B)
Sai - Blatantly claimed busdriver at day end yesterday, a role which may as well be called doctor-vig as far as scum's concerned.

Anyway, here's what the game looks like to me with NTA and Sai's flips:

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Laser looks ungood imo and Beruru looks double plus ungood.

Coldblooded · 09-21-2018, 02:22 AM

Seedy, Pala, Niall, x1372: Out of the other three people on this list, who do you think is the most and least likely to be scum?

seedy · 09-21-2018, 11:20 AM

Sorry about yesterday, I underestimated how frazzled I’d get from international travel as well as how unavailable/flaky Wi-Fi would be
idk how much I’ll end up posting this day since I’m going back on Saturday but we’ll see

I think lordlyblazer is either town or the recipient of some high-tier coaching
I’d like RL to post more...I don’t like lynching people who are lurking and don’t pressure well...
I’d like to look at...pala more? since he’s the one left out of the active players whom I’m most unsure of
I still don’t get a great vibe from pilot but that might be playstyle preferences...I need to reread with more thought given towards flips and his previous positions, since apparently other people have turned around on him?

I think x1372 is the least likely to be scum...being in an acio replacement spot isn’t a great look but the replacement reason was getting to into it rather than “I’m bored cuz I can only play a town game.” also I don’t really see the annoyance towards pilot for voting as something scum (or at least x as scum) would fake
between Niall and pala obviously Niall looks worse...I haven’t gotten the positive “oh scum would NEVER say this” stuff out of numbers’ playstyle that other people (mostly acio) claim to see...but this is the kind of question I’d rather answer once the replacement has had more time to actually replace. as it stands I have a hard time having a strong opinion about the slot...and I want to look at pala more but that’s not “the mostest scum” territory
that airey wagon is...funny to look at

Palamedes · 09-21-2018, 02:33 PM

Sorry I meant to post before bed and forgot and now I have to run but so far today:

Niall, besides being the first vote on Airey how did Pilot lead the lynch? You call out Jaq, Coldblooded, Slorange, and myself for surviving, between Slorange and myself who do you think is the more suspicious (you can add Jaq and Coldblooded to this question if you want but I don't really see how either of them could be scum outside of Sai lying I think).

Granola why are you electing x?

I think x is the most likely town so far out of Coldblooded's list, Niall is the most likely scum. Mostly based on play so far in the game, seedy is fairly neutral for me but I like their logic enough to beat the Numberslot. Also, same question I threw at Niall. Is Pilot town simply because they were the first vote on Airey?

seedy as far as I'm aware Blazer wasn't exactly new to mafia (and it's their play that makes people think that slot is town) I could see maybe arguing a crazy gambit but why coaching? Who do you think would be the high tier coach?

Elect: Solaris
Vote: beruru

seedy · 09-21-2018, 04:19 PM

I put “lordlyblazer” and then immediately forgot to think about blazer’s play lol
I was foggily remembering my thoughts from an aeon ago where lordly’s newbie town comments resolved my lingering paranoia wrt blazer

I don’t think the item actually does anything but if it does I want sol to have it bc she’s the cutest and she’ll appreciate it
elect: Solaris

also I said I’d be flying on Saturday but it’s Sunday actually
I wanna relook at the thread before voting bc enough people are saying stuff that’s (slightly) different from what I think that I want to give things a non-jetlagged look

seedy · 09-21-2018, 04:24 PM

which is to say...eh actually vote: beru, I thought she was at soft already for some reason but that was wrong

Lordlyhour · 09-21-2018, 08:11 PM

(09-21-2018, 02:33 PM)Palamedes Wrote: »seedy as far as I'm aware Blazer wasn't exactly new to mafia (and it's their play that makes people think that slot is town) I could see maybe arguing a crazy gambit but why coaching? Who do you think would be the high tier coach?

The Hypothetical Coaching in question, High Tier or otherwise, is, I assume, being assumed with reference to Me, Since I'm New to Serious Mafia and have taken over blazer's spot

Elect:Coldblooded
and
Vote:Niall
Numbers play this entire time has left me feeling Uncomfortable and Niall Immediately trying to throw suspicion onto some of the Strongest communal townreads Continues that trend. Especially with

(09-21-2018, 12:12 AM)Niall Wrote: »I've received at least one vote every day and everyone's read on me thus far has been middling at best with many people saying I've acted suspicious. I'm an easy, lazy lynch for someone who wants to get this day over with before we have time to examine the facts.

which, honestly Reads To Me like "I'm far too suspicious To Be Suspicious" which. Maybe if I were a Metagame Guru like some of y'all, this would make some degree of sense but I ain't and it Don't

Mirdini · 09-21-2018, 08:21 PM

More Votals

beruru - 4 (Solaris, Niall, Palamedes, seedy)
Schazer - 1 (Granolaman)
Niall - 1 (LordlyHour)

Abstaining - 8 (SleepingOrange, Coldblooded, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Schazer, TehPilot, x1372, beruru)

With 14 players alive it takes 8 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch.

ELECTION Votals Pt. 2

Coldblooded - 2 (Solaris, LordlyHour)
Solaris - 2 (Palamedes, seedy)
x1372 - 1 (Granolaman)

Abstaining - 9 (SleepingOrange, Coldblooded, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Niall, Schazer, TehPilot, x1372, beruru)

Day ends in 96 hours, at 10pm CET on Tuesday, September 25.

Day End Countdown

Solaris · 09-22-2018, 01:21 AM

so like right now we're realistically at seven people who could be scum, the ones of whom im like "very die" as niall, pala, beru, and laser.

i have, meta gayming thoughts that i don't know if i should share but might if we continue to have no discussion today

TehPilot · 09-22-2018, 03:17 AM

Truth be told I had completely overlooked Sai indirectly claiming busdriver towards the end of D3. I don't agree with Niall's analysis in #852 knowing that since claiming a role that targets two people (at least in my usual perspective) is either busdriver or scientist which are super disruptive to scum. Basically what CB said in #859. I wouldn't think keeping Granola alive for wine purposes would be a stronger motive than killing a very disruptive role out in the open.

(09-21-2018, 08:11 PM)Lordlyhour Wrote: »
(09-21-2018, 12:12 AM)Niall Wrote: »I've received at least one vote every day and everyone's read on me thus far has been middling at best with many people saying I've acted suspicious. I'm an easy, lazy lynch for someone who wants to get this day over with before we have time to examine the facts.

which, honestly Reads To Me like "I'm far too suspicious To Be Suspicious" which. Maybe if I were a Metagame Guru like some of y'all, this would make some degree of sense but I ain't and it Don't

Inclined to agree with this. Niall's response reads defensively to me. Really want to see what elaboration is offered regarding nightactions (if any).

Elect: Coldblooded

--

@Niall: you say you're an easy lynch for the day. What about the vote for Beru (the lynch you're favoring at the time of writing)?

@Granola: why Schazer?

@Slorange: you said Sai/NTA's flips would help with your read on x's alignment (#788); any thoughts on that now?

@RL: does Sai and NTA both flipping town have any significant impact on your view of the gamestate?

Granolaman · 09-22-2018, 05:27 AM

@Pala: I'm electing x because I'm decently certain he's not scum at this point and if the keycard makes him a nightkill target it's not a complete loss. Everyone else on the Blazer push flipped town and I don't think Acio would've tried that angle on his own, plus even though I felt Acio was acting strangely it peters toward a "try and solve the game" town lean than a "bored" scum lean

@Pilot: I'm voting Schazer cuz I'm not ready to start lynching the lurker pool yet and would rather poke at a weak alibi. Although iirc you mentioned something exonerating them? If you've got something that'll eliminate them from the suspect list I'd love to hear it.

@Niall: Your predecessor claimed a protective role but between Sai's driving and CB's children-shields protection seems pretty well covered. Got any alternative explanations for your power?

Likewise @Beru: Got anything to say about your cleaning power yet? Or just anything at all?

@Seedy: Do you still think Schazer is lynchworthy?

Solaris · 09-22-2018, 09:39 AM

slorange and schazer have implied mechanical confirmation with each other and currently everyone is allowing that as a pass because slorange and schazer both going "yeah we're in this together" is a WILD LIE to do as a scum team with a lot more ppl in a Very Mechanically Confirmed zone? its like, "we can deal with this later" esp if they keep contributing enough/more than others?

seedy · 09-22-2018, 09:54 AM

beru said they didn’t know what was up with the cleaning stuff iirc

I still think schazer is iffy but...everyone seems to be putting them in a Tupperware and saving them for later, which I can’t really contradict the logic of...I also know that they are irl super busy so I don’t feel like pressuring them will be productive (otoh I think beru might be as well). two vaguely inactive players vouching for each other is a bad feel but at this point schazer IS in the lurker pool

Niall · 09-22-2018, 12:57 PM

Spoiler'd for length.

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I was not aware of either of these facts. My initial analysis was based solely on who's voted for whom; I have a spreadsheet and everything. I am very guilty of having not read a lot of the previous days so I'm going back to them now, but geez there's a lot. I just wanted to get in quickly to keep the game moving. I find it funny that the person I accused of not being targeted by scum was actually targeted by scum though. Kinda proves my analysis right when you think about it? *shrug* Sorry 'bout that.

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Pilot lead the lynch by voting for Airey Days 1, 2 and 3 is what I mean by that. As for you four, I don't necessarily see you all as the most suspicious, just those with the fewest votes cast against you. The fact that one of you had most likely been targeted by the mafia actually answers that question for me. Night 1 kill whoever, Night 2 kill someone with little to no votes, Night 3 kill the busdriver. The scums' actions makes more sense now. The rest of you have had no votes cast against you which is... nnnngggh... to me but not the most suspicious by itself.

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Knowing Sai indirectly claimed BD, which I completely missed, makes more sense than "wanted to make 'Nola look bad" for the purposes of killing Sai, agreed. I'm an easy lynch because people were already casting aspersions. Beru's lynch, for me, is based on the understanding that they've voted for Granolaman and yourself on Day 3, two people I feel very safe about based on your voting history alone. And I would have been the first voter if I had typed faster. :(

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Really? Ugh. See, I had no idea that happened. I'm gonna come clean with my power then. I'm a crappy one-shot protection that only triggers on death, lynch or night death. Either Numbers didn't know what they were doing or hoped that the scum would take the bait. I'd be a pretty good Night 1 kill as I'm a pretty vanilla townie otherwise. Better me than a seer, doctor or anyone else really. Call this reveal bad strategy if you like but I didn't join this game just to get lynched straight away. Selfish, I know. Obviously, because of this fact I won't reveal who I targeted last night in case this day goes poorly for me (I don't even know if my power targets until I'm dead?). If I die today whoever I prayed for last night will be safe.

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I could give you my votes-analysis-only answer which is Seedy least, Pala then x1372 the most. Problem is there've been some role claims? x1372 has claimed... something vague, I think. As have you? I don't know. I don't pick up on soft-claims at all. Knowing who's claimed what could change my mind. But x1372 is the most suspicious based on the fact that the votes for Seedy and Lordly Hour on Day 2 look a lot more like jumping on suspicion bandwagons to me rather than what I perceive as Seedy and Pala's active, if sometimes ineffectual, scumhunting. Pala killed scum but also voted for Granolaman so I'm more mixed there. But they're both voting for Beruru now and I like that play. Again, this is based on vote analysis solely.

Anyway, I hope you don't interpret my text dump as defensiveness. I'm tryin'a catch up here is all and there's a lot here to get through. This is exhausting though, lemme tell you. Woof!

Niall · 09-22-2018, 01:10 PM

(09-22-2018, 09:39 AM)Solaris Wrote: »slorange and schazer have implied mechanical confirmation with each other and currently everyone is allowing that as a pass because slorange and schazer both going "yeah we're in this together" is a WILD LIE to do as a scum team with a lot more ppl in a Very Mechanically Confirmed zone? its like, "we can deal with this later" esp if they keep contributing enough/more than others?

Oh yeah. I forgot to address this. Slorange and Schazer, on a scale of 1 to 10 how would you feel about us lynching one of you to prove the other's innocence (1 being would rather suck on an asprin flavored spur)? More importantly, Solaris, Granolaman, Jacquerel and TehPilot, as people who I feel I can trust right now, do you think that's a good plan? If we were to do that it would have to be sooner rather than later but it's a huge risk to off and expose two people who are potentially confirmed townies. Do we wait for an outsider to vouch for them? Can we afford to wait that long? I'm on the fence, I honestly don't know if it's a good idea, but I think it's worth discussing rather then just putting to the side again and again.

Oh, and elect: Jacquerel. This is entirely a vote formed out of embarrassment and repentance, I will admit.

x1372 · 09-22-2018, 03:28 PM

Dang, didn't notice the update. Don't have a lot of time this morning, but I don't want to go too much longer without saying anything.

Day 4 update has me seriously confused about what the heck is going on. Why the heck would Sai of all people be targeted by the mafia? Granted, we have plenty of time and lots of things could change, but I assumed they'd be one of the most likely to be focused on and possibly lynched today. Because based on that flip, they couldn't bus drive themselves, and no potential scum bus driver or whatnot could have effected them (a possibility I wouldn't have thought about without Sai's flip). Furthermore, I see 5 “semi-townfirms” among the 14 living. If none of them are actually gambiting mafia, well, I'm not sure what mafia's priorities are at this point.

Unless someone else shot sai and the mafia's kill bounced? I guess Sai left a semi-claim, but it wasn't something solid enough for me to focus on.

@Coldblooded: Of Seedy, Pala, and Niall... if I had to guess, I'd pick Seedy as scum right now, and pala as town. It's not based on anything in particular that I've put my finger on, but I've so far had a town feeling about palamedes. Niall's slot has been less active than I'd like (before today of course), but I still have a small town read on them (to be fair, this may be partially because of Acio, who left me a decent amount to read in the QT and had a positive view of numbers). I don't have a major read on seedy one way or the other, but of the 3 they're the one I feel ambivalent about, and may want to take a deeper dive on after work today.

If you have any follow-up questions, ask away.

The key card thing is... interesting anyway, and while I was going to ask why the heck granola was electing me instead of a semi-clear, it looks like that's already been explained. While I'd like to think that the election thing should go toward the most confirmed town we have, I can't really argue with the “give scum more to think about” reasoning. If others agree I'd be fine to take it, but until then I'm going to tentatively Elect coldblooded.

@Niall tehPilot was my strongest scum read on day 3 (aside from Airey once they started foundering and claiming before getting shot). While I've at least partially cooled on that (your explanation based on Airey votes isn't something I disagree with, and that last vote to confirm the lynch on NTA doesn't feel like a risk most scum would take), I'm still iffy on them. Actually, though, since you've got a new set of eyes, here's a quick summary and a couple questions.

Day 2 BlazerC/Lordly claimed that they get a kill if lynched, and offered to be lynched to use it on the (then) highest voted player. They were not taken up on this offer (though it did lead to acio in my slot claiming an on-death power).
Night 2 coldblooded claims to have protected jacquerel from getting shot, in a way that jacquerel reciprocates based on flavor.
Day 3 granolaman daykilled airey, who flipped scum with one-shot bulletproof. Immediately after, solaris claimed to have shot airey night 2 with no counterclaim.

Based on this information, and your thoughts based on votals...
1) Do you believe that all 5 are town?
2) If you think any are secretly scum in a gambit, what's your primary suspect and/or biggest worry?

Blarg, gotta run. But one other quick thing. Whoever visited me last night, don't say anything now. But if you're looking like you're going to get lynched, if you can describe IN DETAIL what you left for me to find last night, I will consider it a point in your favor as town.

TehPilot · 09-22-2018, 03:50 PM

(09-22-2018, 05:27 AM)Granolaman Wrote: »@Pilot: I'm voting Schazer cuz I'm not ready to start lynching the lurker pool yet and would rather poke at a weak alibi. Although iirc you mentioned something exonerating them? If you've got something that'll eliminate them from the suspect list I'd love to hear it.

Schazer is kind of a lurker though Inquisitory

And any lead I had offhandedly mentioned on Schazer a while back has dead-ended. Regrettable, but that's that.

(09-22-2018, 01:10 PM)Niall Wrote: »More importantly, Solaris, Granolaman, Jacquerel and TehPilot, as people who I feel I can trust right now, do you think that's a good plan? If we were to do that it would have to be sooner rather than later but it's a huge risk to off and expose two people who are potentially confirmed townies. Do we wait for an outsider to vouch for them? Can we afford to wait that long? I'm on the fence, I honestly don't know if it's a good idea, but I think it's worth discussing rather then just putting to the side again and again.

I'd consider a Schazer/Slorange lynch on this day to be an information lynch more than a scum-hunting lynch personally. If we do not feel strongly about other options I would consider it. Solaris's proposed target pool in #867 is closer to who I would want publicly discussed today before taking that option.

I'm also okay with waiting on a lynch like that since we have two scum + a 3P down and thus think we're safe for a handful of days with lynching before MYLO/LYLO is a threat. I feel we can afford to take our time on Schazer.