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+--- Thread: The Wander Island Incident - Night Four - Five For One [13/21] (/showthread.php?tid=3539)
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Coldblooded - 09-13-2018
Alright so I never did get around to do much rereading tonight, but I'm super unimpressed that our two leading wagons right now are someone who already has another player vouching that they're mechanically town, and another who was one of the leading voters on the Airey wagon today. Bad job team.
At this point I feel like the only players that I'm at all interested in lynching today are Sai, NTA, Beruru, and Laser. (The first two here are very likely anti-aligned with each other. Beru and Laser are low info lynches, but I think could easily slot into a scumteam with basically anyone.)
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Not The Author - 09-13-2018
Ah! I knew I was forgetting something.
Vote: Sai
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
Okay, so going over Airey's stuff didn't change very much for me. We'd already seen that Sol's very obviously not on a team with them, but I also got pretty decent interactions with Slorange and Blazer. They kinda talked past teh_pilot a bit when both of them wanted to lynch Sol which was kinda weird, so I'd be fine with lynching Pilot too.
Since Slorange and Schazer confirmed their lover/mason thing and I'm confident that Slorange is town, that means Schazer has to be town too.
Anyways, reposting reads -
Townliest: Coldblooded, Jac, Solaris, Blazer/Lordly, Slorange, Schaz (by association)
Probably Town: x1372, Seedy
Not sure, but lean town: Numbers, Palamedes, Beruru
Can Lynch: Laser, TehPilot, Granola, NTA
That list's in order from Town->Scum, left to right.
Which seems too easy, but we're ahead of the game on lynch count.
Vote: Not The Author
Insofar as Granola's thing goes, I just want to restate my point early that if Granola is scum with a daykill, he had to shoot Airey. Remember that Scumola knows Airey's power, which means that he knows that Airey was about to be hammered with himself quite likely in second place. That would mean ending discussion and going into night as the town's #2 target immediately following a scum lynch. He didn't know at the time that Airey was hit by a one-shot vig. He just knew that someone had shot scum N1 and N2. Going into the night in that position would seem like an almost a guaranteed death, and it means that he is in a very difficult position at the start of the next day. Being able to use a day vig doesn't clear himself, and unless he would be willing to shoot what could very well be his last teammate, then at most he gets one more kill out of it. It wasn't so much a gambit as the only play available to him.
If NTA flips scum, I hope y'all trust me enough to lynch or shoot Granola. That said, I'm willing to die for this case, so if NTA flips town, I'll eat a ML tomorrow if you kill Granola on the following day (or night, if there are still townie bullets).
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
Oh right, and also -
If Airey really did who shot him, it's possible that there's a Mafia role that collects the powers of dead scum or dead players in general (or something along those lines), since I don't see why they'd have two tracking powers.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
unvote
Right so a lot happened since last night and i will have the time to process it later but i do feel concern over, some of the stuff with nta and sai but thats definitely where this is going.
I need to, read up on things and will decide which, but I need to also read up and make sure that people arent suddenly trusting in me bc of my claim and such.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
(09-13-2018, 11:40 AM)Solaris Wrote: »I need to, read up on things and will decide which, but I need to also read up and make sure that people arent suddenly trusting in me bc of my claim and such.
It's not your claim. It's because you're obviously not teamed with Airey.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
Alright, last thing is I'll respond to Granola -
Quote:He's been pledging support towards mainstream lynchees but has conveniently avoided showing up on the wagons at dayend. He did cast a vote for Airey, but it was back at the end of D2 where there was no chance of the AC wagon turning around.I didn't think Blazer was town until his 'lynch me, shoot AC' plan. The fact that he did it as a #2 lynch target rather than a #1 made him seem townie in a way that his doing it while a #1 target wouldn't.
Voting for a lynch that's already at the softlynch threshold is literally just voting for the day to end. If there's some crazy revelation that makes them become a bad lynch target while I'm away, I'd like my vote to be sitting on someone else that I'd want to lynch.
[quote]He was pursuing BlazerC long after the momentum had turned which keeps feeding into my suspicion that Blazer was an attempted mislynch setup from Acio and that we just lynched the wrong participant of that push. He only stopped after extracting a roleclaim from Blazer and pushing Numbers for reveals feels like more info-fishing to me. (I'm of the opinion we don't need Numbers' targets either; less chance of scum predicting them without)
Quote:Like, the Blazer wagon was the only thing I feel Sai's put any real pressure or effort into. Everything else has mostly been weightless words or stray floaty votes.I've been pretty clear on who I was okay and not okay with lynching for most of the game, I think.
Quote:Also I'm still processing my feelings on it, but part of Airey's ploy seemed designed to move either myself or TehPilot into an accidental mislynch and Sai seemed pretty ready to hop into that.Except this doesn't work because as far as I understand it, Airey's power obscures only one count for the day. Even if you ignore that, CB's proposal also included actually putting 9 votes on Airey once we had a good target in second, so there was no real way for him to live without basically everyone screwing up and forgetting how to count at the same time.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
Oh and insofar as Numbers' thing goes - I have a usually useless / detrimental perk whose one upside is that it can potentially reveal if someone lied about targeting someone. While I don't think they're scum, since they claimed anyways I figured that I may as well give that a go.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Robust Laser - 09-13-2018
i'm gonna mention that i was busy yesterday rather than go to sleep again without saying literally anything
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Palamedes - 09-13-2018
Coldblooded is right and while I don't like Pilot in any other way (and I can envision a world where Pilot would vote for their buddy Airey and then watch as it gets out of hand) there are enough other options that I can shelf a Pilot vote for now. Literally the opposite of Pilot's feelings on me, apparently. Also not thrilled with the beru vote following me but I get that they are crazy busy and having a hard time getting into things which I am sympathetic to.
Vote: Sai
NTA isn't really pinging as much of anything for me to be honest so I could go there as well but I'm always of the opinion that I'd prefer a lynch that I think is more likely to hit scum (and who knows, maybe our friendly neighbourhood SK will continue to take care of things for us if I'm wrong). I didn't like them before and now looking at their response to Granola I'm happier with the lynch going this way. Response feels like it's purposely misinterpreting questions in order to dismiss them (seemed pretty obvious that Granola was saying they weren't actively pursuing everyone, not that they didn't have reads) or accusing Granola/Airey of being able to have a plan re: Granola's shot but saying there's no way that they and Airey could have had a plan using Airey's power.
Also just generally not understanding/a fan of saying that Slorange/Schazer confirmed lover type things, unless I've missed something we have literally no confirmation at all besides the two just saying 'trust us', and I've seen enough games where that trust is secretly one sided to not be okay with leaving it at that in the long run. Similarly unhappy with Coldblooded popping into thread just to back Schazer when I don't think they've stated strong feelings about either them or Slorange but I mean... Coldblooded is super town so it isn't a suspicion thing with them as much as a disagreement.
Other things.
I could go back to vote for Laser or Numbers too actually, I never liked the latter but both of them have just really been on the sidelines since people stopped focusing on them (willing to withhold a little for Laser having been busy, I get it).
I keep forgetting LordlyHour replaced Blazer and go to vote them. I know you feel like you're getting in the way, but like you acknowledged the only way to really do that is to not do anything. I've asked you questions in earlier posts today, could you please answer them (and any other asked questions of other people, even in this post)?
@Granola, am I misreading or do you think x is scum? I know there was the Acio play that bugged you yesterday but I actually feel pretty good about that slot now so I'd like to hear some expanded/more recent reasoning there.
@Slorange I totally get your feelings on me, I know I'm normally dramatically more active and less wall-y than this, and that's because I've got a little bit of life burnout and busyness so my apologies (in fact, if you look at older games the playstyle you noticed is fairly common of me regardless of alignment). Any way you can make some comment on the reads I do have in my more recent posts, or at the very least say whether or not you'd kill me right now if the game depended on my alignment? Could I also get more elaboration on why NTA is a good vote, or is it literally just that you think they have less implicit value as town?
@NTA: You say I slip from your mind and then that I'm fine. Why am I fine?
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Mystery [17/21] - Mirdini - 09-13-2018
12 Hours 'til No More Votes
Sai - 3 (Granolaman, Not The Author, Palamedes)
Not The Author - 3 (seedy, SleepingOrange, Sai)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, beruru)
Schazer - 1 (TehPilot)
Abstaining - 7 (Coldblooded, Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer, Solaris)
With 16 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 12 hours, at 4am CET on Friday, September 14.
New Day End Countdown
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
i was going to say that im pretty good on lynching nottles or sai, but on re-read nottles looks a bit worse and sai looks a bit better, mostly because upon the blazerC thing settling down, sai elects to go towards Airey, but that was very late in the day so its difficult to take it completely seriously.
I did also notice that nottles has been on Sai's case for Quite A While which is also interesting and I'm not entirely sure if that's behavoir that scum would latch on to? I feel like sai tryng to bus airey towards the end after the ac lynch is all but going through to ease off suspicion of the next best target is workable, along with trying to put less salt into granola's claim, though thats a behavoir thats very neccessary to do at times?
its, interesting, thats for sure
i think though, that the counter to Sai's thing is that i don't think his reaction to Airey's shenanigan is especialyl scripted, so I'm going to Vote: NotTheAuthor
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Sai - 09-13-2018
I probably won't be around before the day ends.
If I get lynched -
I used my powers on one person I thought was town and one I thought was scum each night - Airey and Acio Night 1 and Granola and Coldblooded Night 2. It should be obvious from my flip which one's which.
wrt Palamedes -
I mentioned this in my response to nola, but a vote on someone that's past the soft lynch threshold is literally just a vote to end the day. I was on board with the lynches we've done so far, so I didn't need to fight super hard for getting alternative folks lynched.
Airey's power thing was borderline useless. Not sure what you mean by saying they couldn't have a plan for it.
If two people claim to know that the other is clear, I don't think it's a huge assumption that they are paired. A role that is literally nothing but actively detrimental is a pretty crappy role, and I somewhat doubt it exists.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
its unforunate that my wedding hole might mean that seedy wont be able to contribute bc i would Adore their take on today but thats flights and such for you!
I think if this Sai/Nottles thing is settled I'd go for Pala if Numbers doesn't vanish then Laser then Numbers if Numbers contributes or beruru. With Schazer slotted in if Slorange changes their mind about them being cleared. Pilot's good for now I think tbh.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
i feel like it is unlikely that anyone currently more or less confirmed town is DEEP GAMBIT ZONE but if one of them is, it's Lordly I think.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
I'm going to note, in retrospect, that we've had two incidental things happen (boot, slorange's room was cleaned (by beruru/JW) and only those two incidental things, neither was repeated today.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - SleepingOrange - 09-13-2018
I will point out that there has been zero confirmation of my claim or schazer's; it has been both of us saying trust us to the group the entire game. I don't think that that means you should trust us, I just do think that it means that as scum we put ourselves in a great position for two of us to die for no reason once somebody cops or vigs one of us because it would reveal the alignment of both (unless we were cross aligned lovers and you hit the town one in which case you would effectively have a town confirmation on an anti town party I suppose but I don't think that sort of role is in this game, and copping or killing one of us would prove that's not the case). There's not a lot of reason to trust us, it's just that it's going to be very easy to figure things out later on and there's more important things to do now.
@Pala: it's not just that I think that between the two of them NTA is a better loss, though that is part of it: they've also just been pretty resistant to doing any actual scum hunting, while Sai has been contributing to discussion a bit albeit in a way that you feel is obfuscation, and in the absence of any significant flips on people that either of them have talked about, nta's behavior reads as scummier to me although in a way that I acknowledge could simply be them not knowing what to do or how to contribute right now. Maybe I'm just feeling good enough about having killed 2 scum in 3 days that I feel like being have enough leeway to go with my gut on this one, I don't know. As I said my last post, I will definitely switch off of NTA on to sai if neither has gotten to soft territory closer to the end of the day because I do think that they are both solid helpful lynches, I just would rather start with n t a, and that preference isn't very strong. I wouldn't kill you right now if I had one of the very many One-Shots that's floating around to do that it seems, because even back when you were kind of on my radar as a somewhat suspicious player, it was significantly informed by how differently you were playing from how I remembered you playing rather than any serious suspicions. You wouldn't tell me much upon your death and I'm not suspicious of you as scum enough to feel like the one kill would be worth it. You honestly haven't been important to discussion enough for me even particularly like copping you when there are are much better targets that I'm more suspicious of. I'm just trying to watch your play because I don't know where to put you and that makes me leery. I went back and reread most of your posts from today and it honestly seems like our reads are on very similar pages with the exception of schazer that I have mechanical information on that you don't, seedy who you have as slightly more town than I do and I'm not 100% sure why, and RL who you seem unusually sure is not scum for someone who hasn't really contributed anything meaningful for the whole game. I guess I could have missed something. They all seem like pretty reasonable reads, and with the exception of RL and granola you're not trying to make anyone I'm not sure is town seem town, so they don't make me feel very bad about you. I'm definitely interested to see sai's flip now that you've had much more extensive interactions with them, so even if this day doesn't go the way I'd prefer I think I'm going to be happy with the result. I've said you're low on my list of scum reads, but I suppose it's more accurate to say that you're high on my list of people that I have been trying to watch more closely to get a better idea of. I was more suspicious earlier in the game when we had less concrete details to go off of.
I will point out that while no one has mentioned in the thread that they were cleaned I know through mysterious means that someone was cleaned last night and who it was. Whatever the bear did to me is still happening. Yeehaw!
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
It sounds like there’s some fun stuff happening in this game that I haven’t been at all privy to and that’s fine
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Coldblooded - 09-13-2018
I have good reason to believe that Sai is telling the truth about at least a part of his night action list, and this claim also strikes me as a questionable one to make as scum in this scenario.
Vote NotTheAuthor
(09-13-2018, 01:48 PM)Palamedes Wrote: »Also just generally not understanding/a fan of saying that Slorange/Schazer confirmed lover type things, unless I've missed something we have literally no confirmation at all besides the two just saying 'trust us', and I've seen enough games where that trust is secretly one sided to not be okay with leaving it at that in the long run. Similarly unhappy with Coldblooded popping into thread just to back Schazer when I don't think they've stated strong feelings about either them or Slorange but I mean... Coldblooded is super town so it isn't a suspicion thing with them as much as a disagreement.
For the record I'm not saying that we should consider Slorange or Schazer as confirmed town or anything, but rather that the only way to find out if their reasoning for calling the other one town is valid or not is probably to have one or both of them fullclaim. They don't get a free pass for the rest of the game, but they're also not nearly high enough on my scumlist to warrant forcing a claim today.
@Sai: I don't understand at all why you think Granola's so scummy that you're literally willing to eat a lynch if it means getting him killed. What's your opinion of him sitting on the Airey wagon?
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Lordlyhour - 09-13-2018
(09-13-2018, 01:48 PM)Palamedes Wrote: »I've asked you questions in earlier posts today, could you please answer them (and any other asked questions of other people, even in this post)?
My Apologies, I Completely missed your question, Otherwise I'd have answered it earlier.
Incidentally, My random Capitalization is Something of a tic. Sorry if it bugs you.
(09-12-2018, 03:08 PM)Palamedes Wrote: »@LordlyHour: There were two scum on the Airey wagon before his death. Who were they and why?If I have to pick, then Granola and Numbers
Coldblooded and Jacquerel are My Two Strongest Townreads, Due to the fact they seem to be Driving discussion further than they might otherwise Need to to Appear "Innocent Enough to pass inspection" (which, of course, my paranoia insists is Exactly Their Plan)
Laser is a lighter townread. and pilot is floating somewhere neutral
I still don't have a great read on Numbers. Does Anyone have a great read on them? I'm leaning ever so slightly scumwards, personally, just because their tone seems kind to be a slightly aggressive "I am Obviously Town, Obviously", but I don't really have a strong enough grasp of the Meta to be able to make any calls based on their play.
I'm eliminating myself from the list for reasons that should be Obvious.
(09-13-2018, 02:45 AM)TehPilot Wrote: »@Lordly: what made you feel Granola was scum leading up to him delivering the daykill? Any thoughts on NTA, Slorange, Sai perchance?Part of it is I had the Vibe that Blazer Didn't Trust them, which, when coming in as a followup act, kinda poisons the well. There's Also the fact that Granola was on the first two Lynchwagons, Both of the results thereof being Non-scum. Admittedly, Blazer was ALSO on said wagons, so take That as you will. Also, The whole argument with acio In Seedy's Defense around and about #489 [url=https://eagle-time.org/showthread.php?tid=3539&pid=218346#pid218346][/url]and thereabouts is fairly Suspect, Given Seedy is fairly high in my scumbucket. Schazer's #506 and Gronola's 514 also rub me the Wrong Way
Incidentally, While Knowing The Shark Tank Was There, flavourwise, points to an Innocent, It Doesn't preclude an Inside Man or Former Employee Gone Rogue
NTA; Fairly null, read, personally
Sai; I Don't have a Terrible feeling about them. I'd Trust them to water my plants, but I Wouldn't hand them a Gun.
Slorange; For some reason, I thought General Consensus on this guy was Scum, Which I did not agree with. On Reread, it appears that I was wrong about that and have No idea where that impression came from. But still do not think him scum
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Mystery [17/21] - Mirdini - 09-13-2018
The 8-Hour Votal Shuffle
Not The Author - 5 (seedy, SleepingOrange, Sai, Solaris, Coldblooded)
Sai - 3 (Granolaman, Not The Author, Palamedes)
TehPilot - 2 (x1372, beruru)
Schazer - 1 (TehPilot)
Abstaining - 5 (Jacquerel, Robust Laser, Numbers, LordlyHour, Schazer)
With 16 players alive it takes 9 votes to hard lynch, and 5 votes to soft lynch. Day ends in 8 hours, at 4am CET on Friday, September 14.
New Day End Countdown
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Not The Author - 09-13-2018
(09-13-2018, 11:28 AM)Sai Wrote: »Insofar as Granola's thing goes, I just want to restate my point early that if Granola is scum with a daykill, he had to shoot Airey. Remember that Scumola knows Airey's power, which means that he knows that Airey was about to be hammered with himself quite likely in second place. That would mean ending discussion and going into night as the town's #2 target immediately following a scum lynch. He didn't know at the time that Airey was hit by a one-shot vig. He just knew that someone had shot scum N1 and N2. Going into the night in that position would seem like an almost a guaranteed death, and it means that he is in a very difficult position at the start of the next day. Being able to use a day vig doesn't clear himself, and unless he would be willing to shoot what could very well be his last teammate, then at most he gets one more kill out of it. It wasn't so much a gambit as the only play available to him.See, on the one hand, I agree with the logic here. If true, I think it may also iscumplicate one or more of Numbers (as someone we've suspected may be scum basically from the get-go), Beru and Laser (as folks what haven't been around and are thus liable to die regardless). 'Cos yeah, it may have been his only play? But it feels weirdly desperate to me, like scum is running out faster than we know. That's just my take, tho.
On the other hand, I don't see how claiming powers, let alone powers you appear to have mechanical grasp on, makes you look good? Like you could still be 3P? but,
a) claiming a power that only works while people don't know about it seems like it renders that power useless, which, you're clearly suspect, but I'm more apparently more suspect, so I'm not 100% on your motive there, and
b) precedent suggests expressing any mechanical confidence in what powers you may have means you're Not Town, even if said powers would be useful for a townie to have.
Like, I'm still willing to go another direction if there's a good enough push, but if this is how we doin', this is how we doin'.
@Palamedes: You're alright 'cos your analysis posts are cool and well-thought-out. Pretty sure your non-mind-stick-thing is a combination of dumb factors such as you taking your time between posts and not having an avatar. Like I said, meant to snip that bit.
I feel like there's more I'm forgetting, but I gotta get to work. Will try to be around as much as I can, but mafiaday ends before workday, so. We'll see, I guess!
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Robust Laser - 09-13-2018
oh, never mind, if day ends then i won't have time to get my thoughts in before work is done. Whoops. Uh. I guess I'll see if I have enough time to type some vague thoughts on my phone between customers or something. Otherwise, see y'all tomorrow I guess/hope.
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Solaris - 09-13-2018
im sad that nottles isn't being more dramatic in light of their imminent death
RE: The Wander Island Incident - Day Three: A Bloody Denouement [16/21] - Palamedes - 09-13-2018
Vote: NTA
No time to post but also might not have time before dayend and as much as I'd rather I don't think we're swapping to Sai, so might as well make sure this happens.