(08-16-2016, 02:48 PM)Kíeros Wrote: »This post is going to pass all of the fucking rules. Right, mister $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Reyweld?

(08-16-2016, 03:04 PM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »One, two, three, four. I declare a thumb war.

Not that I have any idea who I'm declaring it against.

(08-16-2016, 04:07 PM)a52 Wrote: »

(08-16-2016, 04:09 PM)Sruixan Wrote: »To repackage those hints:

Lust: next
Pride: declare
Greed: many
Sloth: after
Envy: unique
Wrath: never
Gluttony: names

...okay so that actually made Sloth pretty obvious (and explains why my civ posts always passed it) and made me want to poke at Gluttony but apparently we only have two exemplar passes, if I'm not mistaken; the "Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame seed bun!" form which can seemingly be added to without preventing the pass and my notes on episode #13.

...hmm. If that were "name" rather than "names" then I would make a stab, but unless I'm being blind... which I probably am...

(08-16-2016, 08:25 PM)qwerx3 Wrote: »$987,654,321,000

(08-17-2016, 01:10 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words words

(08-10-2016, 12:52 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame seed bun!

(08-17-2016, 01:30 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »Don't read this post, skip ahead to the one afterwards. It'll be more exciting.

(08-17-2016, 01:56 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »Make sure you read the previous post for full context.

(08-17-2016, 01:56 AM)Ixcaliber Wrote: »everyone's favourite Akumu is back with a real good new post you're gonna love:

(08-17-2016, 01:57 AM)Akumu Wrote: »

(08-10-2016, 12:52 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame seed bun!

(08-17-2016, 01:58 AM)Kíeros but Red Wrote: »* Kíeros claps for such a brilliant post of Ak's

(08-17-2016, 02:25 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »And now here's Ix with the weather.

(08-17-2016, 02:28 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »Someone mentioned that there would be money so I'm posting here.

(08-17-2016, 02:29 AM)Kíeros Wrote: »000
FXUS63 KLOT 170132 AAA
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
832 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.UPDATE...
830 PM CDT

The primary addition to the forecast was to include mention of
fog tonight and just after daybreak south of I-80, especially
south of a Streator-to-Valparaiso line. Still looking as if there
is potential for isolated showers or non-severe storms near the
Wisconsin state-line overnight and in the CWA as a whole Wednesday
morning.

A weak diffuse surface boundary with moisture pooling is draped
across northern Indiana to central Illinois this evening, and
earlier was the focus for scattered showers and funnel clouds in
the far southeastern CWA. This weak pressure gradient and high
moisture in the current absence of any cloud cover, along with wet
ground in that area, will likely support fog development. T/Td
spreads are already down to one degree at PNT and RZL with
temperatures in the far southern CWA expected to dip to 5 degrees
or more below their afternoon crossover. So some of the fog could
be dense and have included mention of that. There could be patchy
fog in outlying areas of the northern CWA as well, but expecting
a tad bit of mixing along with incoming clouds. Going low
temperature forecasts look on track.

The primary upper low is situated across central Minnesota moving
eastward early this evening. A couple other short waves within the
overall upper trough are rotating their way around the primary
circulation and sustaining upstream convection within a moderate
unstable atmosphere per regional soundings. Overall there is
limited factors for organized convection to maintain itself
upstream (e.g. low deep layer and cold-pool shear, fairly week
steering flow, weakly defined low- level features). Despite that,
these type of upper lows tend to keep scattered non-organized
convection going overnight and would expect that type of mode to
continue especially closer to the center which would be in
Wisconsin. CAMs do support a weakening trend in regional coverage
and intensity of convection into the overnight, with better
support for showers and storms near and north of the state-line.
Some of these high-res models do show an uptick into our area in
the morning as a short wave moves across. Confidence remains low
in this and will just continue the ongoing chance area-wide.

MTF

&&

.SHORT TERM...
231 PM CDT

Through Wednesday night...

High pressure is spreading across the region, and the scattered
showers east of I-57 will continue southeast. Additional shower
development is not expected through this evening. An upper level
disturbance over southern MN and IA moves over the region tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. Have low confidence in coverage and
timing of showers and storms tonight and Wednesday. Thinking the
GFS is overdone and leaned toward the NAM and other CAMS. Expecting
isolated to scattered showers and storms to form over north central
IL after midnight. Thinking storms will remain north of I-88 and
severe storms are not expected.

Showers and storms diminish in the morning, and then have low
confidence in the afternoon and evening precip chances. With the
warm, humid air mass and a wave overhead, do not feel comfortable
going dry. However, we are lacking surface forcing. Therefore,
thinking afternoon storms will be scattered unless morning storms
produce a boundary that afternoon storms can fire on. Went with a
broad slight chance to chance of showers and storms through
Wednesday night. Have medium-high confidence that there will be
more dry hours than wet tomorrow.

Wednesday will once again be hot and humid with southwest winds up
to 10 MPH. High temps will be at least a degree or two higher than
today. Fewer clouds could lead to warmer temps, while more cloudy
conditions may limit surface warming. Dewpoints in the low 70s will
result in heat indices around 90.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT

Thursday through Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday:
Weak mid-lvl ridge arrives Thur and stretches north through James
Bay, with weak low-level height rises this should provide a dry
day Thursday. Broad ridging will linger across the South/Southeast
CONUS which should hold the low-level moisture from advecting
north until early Friday. Then by Fri morning the return flow
moisture will begin to advect north through the Ozarks and
eventually arrive over Northern Il/Northwest In Fri aftn.
Simultaneously the mid-lvl heights will begin to fall and allow
moisture to steadily increase.

The developing upstream trough will begin to dive into the Northern
Plains Fri aftn, but expect the stronger vorticity channel to remain
displaced to the west of the Great Lakes region until the weekend.
It presently appears to be setting up with considerable cloud cover
Fri aftn/eve and could see the moisture rich atmosphere becoming
supportive of efficient rainfall rates from slow moving storms and
perhaps hydrology concerns for flooding.

Current guidance indicates temps could easily warm into the
middle/upper 80s Fri aftn, but confidence is low given the steadily
increasing cloud cover and expect the higher volume of moisture
could allow for increased heat capacity of parcels and result in
temps remaining several degrees cooler but notably more humid.

Saturday through Tuesday:

Ensembles maintain the ridging across the western CONUS/Canada
through Sat, as the downstream trough arrives into the Central
Plains. The moist axis will be stretching from Texas northeast
through Illinois/Lower Michigan Saturday, with periodic chances for
rain/storms. Then the trough axis will slowly pivot east Sat
ngt/Sun, bringing a decreased chance for precip over the second half
of the weekend and more cooler temps into the mid 70s for highs and
overnight lows in the 50s early next week.

Beachler

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

Easterly winds of 8-10 KT in the wake of this afternoons lake
breeze, will abate and shift south-southwesterly early this
evening. Thereafter, winds are expected to remain southwesterly.
The only weather concerns will be the potential for SCT
thunderstorms on Wednesday as another mid-level disturbance
approaches the area. There may even be some remnants
shower/thunderstorm activity moving across southern WI and
portions of far northern Illinois around daybreak Wednesday.
However, confidence on this activity impacting the eastern TAF
sites is low, and have therefore left this out of the current
forecast. However, additional widely SCT thunderstorms will be
possible over the area by early afternoon. Therefore, I left the
PROB30 group in from 17 to 21 UTC to cover this potential.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
237 PM CDT

Weak ridge of high pressure will cover much of the Great Lakes
region through Thursday, then high pressure will shift east with
surface winds turning southwesterly. The gradient remains light
through Thursday night, then with increasing southwest flow Friday
into Saturday and an approaching frontal boundary nearing the
Upper Midwest Fri, winds may approach 15 to 25 kt from the
southwest Fri ngt/Sat. The frontal boundary will eventually push
east of Lake Michigan Sat ngt/Sun and steadily bring winds to the
west and northwest with much cooler air flowing over the lake from
Canada. That will likely build waves for the southern half of Lake
Michigan later Sunday into early next week.

Beachler

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

(08-17-2016, 02:32 AM)a52 Wrote: »Ffs guys, you KNOW not to mention weather when Kieros is around...

(08-17-2016, 02:39 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »Well, I do now.

(08-17-2016, 03:02 AM)Ixcaliber Wrote: »sorry i was late with the weather

(08-17-2016, 03:33 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »Thank you, Ix.

And now here's qwerx3 with sports.

(08-17-2016, 05:38 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »I know sports!??!

Um. Well the Olympics are happening or something like that. Don't quote me on this but I think they are in Brazil.

(08-17-2016, 05:38 AM)qwerx3 Wrote: »However, this is a new page that needs to be bumped.

(08-17-2016, 06:15 AM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »Thank you for that informative summary, qwerx3.

In science news today, the ongoing controversy over whether rules 1, 2, and 3 can be passed by human beings shows no signs of slowing down. More on the story as it develops.

(08-17-2016, 08:22 AM)Wheat Wrote: »kill murder death rape pillage hate anger rude

(08-17-2016, 08:22 AM)Wheat Wrote: »GETTIN REAL MAD AT THE SKY!!!