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+---- Thread: Murder By The Book - Ender's Game (/showthread.php?tid=812)
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Nova - 04-09-2014
Better
Not cleared but better
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - SleepingOrange - 04-09-2014
You're not my real dad, I don't need to impress you, Kevin. Wait, I already used that one this game, how about uh
Marcus
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Schazer - 04-09-2014
(04-09-2014, 01:46 AM)Truegreen Wrote: »You have come to several conclusions that seem to support this, the backbone of your argument seems to be that Cyber was not killed by the mafia.
The whole argument about "why would the mafia target Cyber" was annulled (not resolved, annulled) by the revelation that Slorange redirected all kills onto Cyber that night. We literally cannot speculate on the Mafia's N1 motives because all evidence of them has been redirected into oblivion. (Unless Slorange is lying, but wuuuuuuuuurgh)
Mirdini has a reputation from previous games (as witnessed by players like: Slorange, Garuru, Me, Sotek, donut, Seedy, Pala, Nova, Gnauga, Granola, Solaris) of being a formidable obstacle for scum when he's town-sided. If the mafia team doesn't have him, he's regularly perceived as a threat and gets nightkilled early (because good luck trying to lynch him).
I'm gonna admit that trying to gauge the scum team's motives for killing Player A or Player B after their corpses turn up are iffy at best (and would have gone absolutely nowhere on D2 if Slorange hadn't made a mechanical claim). What's even iffier is trying to predict who gets killed tomorrow or further, because they're reading along with the thread, watching people's speculation, and adding "let's fuck with these guys' expectations" on top of whatever other decision-making logic they're running when picking kills.
I mean tbh your entire post is running with the assumption that Slorange is lying, straight-up No Way Don't Wanna Entertain That Side Of The Coin, but your directions of aggression in general have felt... weird.
---
And yeah ok people who have asked me to get up and talk about other things, I will do that. It will take me a bit but I will do that before the day's out, with enough time for follow-up discussion or whatever.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Akumu - 04-09-2014
Okay so
It seems like whomever had janitoring powers had them be one-day only. I think that would go along with a janitoring ability that was not one-shot. Taking Slorange at his word, we don't know who the original target of the janitoring was so there's not a lot of information to be gained there.
If we take Mirdini at his word (which can at most be a one-day diversion from the truth), Undercover targeted him and he's currently bleeding to death and will die at the end of the day. I don't think I agree with Truegreen's "continuation of a pattern" argument since I don't think cyber was the intended target, but the mafia targeting someone without a lot of inter-relational data to draw inferences from makes sense.
At this point I still don't trust eberron, but without any new evidence so I don't know if other people are with me on this? I'd want to lynch him but there are other options out there.
I agree with Solaris about bigro being snarky and non-posty and not a big asset to the town at this point. Of course I still have my suspicions about Solaris so being in agreement with them confuses me!
I guess the most straight-forward thing to do at this point is to vote my convictions and see where it gets us.
Vote: eberron
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Schazer - 04-09-2014
that, or
there's a mafia jack-of-all-trades with one shot poisoning+janitoring+????, as a counterpart to the formerly-ostensibly-town jack-of-investigative-trades Cyber. Not implausible, not actually my assumption on what the deal is, but more a thought exercise to demonstrate we cannot pin down the setup at all at this stage.
Again this is setupchat sorry sorry sorry, I will stop this interjecty-dealie but I'ma finish this GBS2 post before re-reading this sucker properly
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Dragon Fogel - 04-09-2014
bigro has requested replacement.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - SleepingOrange - 04-09-2014
Shocka
I will take his spot though!
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Truegreen - 04-09-2014
(04-09-2014, 02:06 AM)Schazer Wrote: »I mean tbh your entire post is running with the assumption that Slorange is lying, straight-up No Way Don't Wanna Entertain That Side Of The Coin, but your directions of aggression in general have felt... weird.
My argument does not assume Slorange is lying. I do not mention Slorange once and his claim and mine are not mutually exclusive. Let's look at the possibilities.
1. Mafia targeted someone, Slorange redirected it to Cyber
2. Mafia targeted Cyber, Slorange Lied about the redirect
3. Mafia targeted Cyber, Slorange Redirected kill to Cyber accomplishing nothing but confusion.
As you can see if 3 is true than my argument and Slorange's can coexist.
I simply believe that Slorange is more likely to be lying. That is my opinion and is unimportant to the argument I was making so I did not include it.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Nova - 04-09-2014
Eugh Eberron
Ok I wanna see Eb talk for sure so here's some questions for when they're here (SOMEBODY POINT THEM THIS WAY IF I GET LOST IN THE SHUFFLE)
-What do you think of Schazer?
-What do you think of me v. Slorange? What alignment do you think each of us is?
-How 'bout Slorange v. Truegreen? Any thoughts on Truegreen's alignment?
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Mirdini - 04-09-2014
(04-09-2014, 01:46 AM)Truegreen Wrote: »1. You claim Cyber did not make sense as a nightkill target due to his poor posting frequency/You claim you also did not post frequently.
2. You and Cyber both had a low post frequency but enough to be merely seen as semi-active.
3. I can see no reason Scum would have identified you as dangerous before the first night. (If there is some power that can do this I would like to know)
4. Assuming (1.) is true and there has been no night-kill on another player highly active or inactive this suggests that even if Mirdini was targeted the first night it is due to his semi-activity or something he stated in one of his few posts not any determined 'dangerousness'.
5. Cyber shared a similar level of activity as Mirdini.
6. Mafia perform most if not all night kills. As they are always the same their kills are likely to share some logical reasoning or methodology. Basically it will produce a pattern.
Mirdini, I think you have internalized this attack too much, assuming that it is something specific to you that has lead to the attack. I propose that it is the continuation of a specific pattern which gives us insight into the Mafia's thought processes.
While Schaz has already rebutted this sorta I might as well clarify my argument (and also be forced to resort to going over my meta explicitly but well that's why we have day/night 1 sigh). Have relisted the parts of your argument I have particular issues with.
Re: 1./2. Yeah I didn't quite make this clear enough but let's compare cyber's day one posts and my day one posts:
The point was less 'scum are killing people with this many posts' and more 'scum are not shooting people based on keeping the game "fun"' (i.e. killing lurkers or people who aren't going to contribute anything to the game) - cyber and I had both made posts, and they were moderately entertaining (or at least I'd like to think so). In looking back cyber'd actually done more than I remembered he had (still not much but hey I never even voted D1), whereas there were plenty of slots that had done even less over the course of d1/were being replaced for the mafia to kill. You say in your estimation the mafia are following a pattern of killing "semi-active" players (by which you apparently mean players with 3 or less posts on d1) for some reason.
Why in the world would they do that? Objectively speaking these players aren't a threat, and are statistically just as likely to contain power roles as players who might be much more problematic in the long-run.
Whiiiich brings us to
3./4.
While referring to my own meta (by which I mean my mafia conduct as a whole which is something several other people (see schazer list) know about) is something I try to avoid ('look at me I'm a special snowflake' etc.) since it's kind of half of my case and I've only got the day to make said case I guess I have to do that
I've played mafia for a pretty long time, and generally people seem to think that I am quite good at getting in the way of scum as a town player (whether they're correct or not is irrelevant here). This has led to me being promptly shot by the mafia in quite a few games:
n' that's only the ones I could find at short notice. Either way, getting me out of the way as quickly as possible is something that at least makes sense from a scum standpoint, whereas killing cyber and then me based on 'semi-activity' is not.
and finally
5./6. As mentioned above, this pattern makes no sense because there's no good motive behind it. Additionally, trying to find patterns in two nights of kills based on what kind of players turned up dead is... not a very reliable methodology. Yeah, basing the gamestate on meta-reasoning isn't foolproof either but it's all I've got to go on after a no lynch, third party death and third party lynch and it makes a sight more sense than 'scum decided to kill people with 2-3 posts because who knows'.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - seedy - 04-09-2014
yeah um truegreen basically the logic train goes like this:
Mirdini is a really really strong player who is usually active and killing him out of nowhere is kind of a dick move and also the opposite of making a game cool n fun. the mindset of a scum team that kills a lurking player who's likely to stay lurking is vastly different from that of one who kills a player who hasn't even played yet just because he might have become a problem later.
although really I think 'green is town because I CANNOT see them writing that post after their scumbuds explained why they're killing Mirdini. (unless they didn't explain because scum is ass. I mean they did shoot lurkerdini.) it also makes me think Things about other people too. assuming maf shot Mirdini leads to lots of meta bs and I hate it but there it is.
I'm really Behind the lynching garuru idea but I'm gonna wait to vote until I can get on my computer and make a better post
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Mirdini - 04-09-2014
Which is really all irrelevant to anything but my opinion that Slorange is likely town (or at the very least, not part of the mafia and thus not someone who should be lynched today).
in other words can we make the thread not 'all Slorange all day' and start lynching mafia instead thankee
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - eberron - 04-09-2014
(04-09-2014, 04:54 AM)Nova Wrote: »Eugh Eberron
Ok I wanna see Eb talk for sure so here's some questions for when they're here (SOMEBODY POINT THEM THIS WAY IF I GET LOST IN THE SHUFFLE)
-What do you think of Schazer?
-What do you think of me v. Slorange? What alignment do you think each of us is?
-How 'bout Slorange v. Truegreen? Any thoughts on Truegreen's alignment?
(So how many times today will I forget to come on here? Sheesh)
I have no issues towards Schazer. His posts feel very town and nothing I've read has made me think other wise.
With you and Slorange, I feel this is a case of two towns that are butting heads. Slorange and Green on the other hand to me is a town vs scum fight. As Slorange has pointed out, alot of Greens posts seem to be written in a way that makes what Slorange says seem more scummy then intended. So unless Slorange is an ungodly good liar I'm leaning towards Green being scum.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Mirdini - 04-09-2014
bonus conspiracy theory truegreen is scum who is confused by me attributing his killing to meta when his actual motives are exactly what he's posted in the thread
as seedy said though I don't think that's a likely scenario for obvious '[most] scum don't tell the thread exactly what they're doing' reasons
Heyo Eberron! Can I get your opinion on Garuru and Akumu if it's not too much trouble? (I understand if you're pressed for time I've gotta leave right this moment so I'll be back in 12 hours to see how things have progressed)
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - eberron - 04-09-2014
(04-09-2014, 05:25 AM)Mirdini Wrote: »Heyo Eberron! Can I get your opinion on Garuru and Akumu if it's not too much trouble? (I understand if you're pressed for time I've gotta leave right this moment so I'll be back in 12 hours to see how things have progressed)
It'll have to be tomorrow. Where I live its almost 2 in the morning and I'm beat. I should have time to go back over their posts then too so I can have an honest post and nothing half assed.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Nova - 04-09-2014
Ugh Mird you're makin' it REALLY HARD TO BREAK MY THROWING-MY-VOTE-AROUND-LIKE-A-BEACH-BALL HABIT
...
Fine
FINE
It can wait 'til you flip at least
Unvote
And I'm just gonna leave it there for now 'cause I'm up as late as Eb and I need to process when I'm certifiably lucid
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 2: The Invisible Man - seedy - 04-09-2014
no mirdini we can use you and slorange's claims to solve the entire game. t h e e n t i r e g a m e
(04-01-2014, 03:57 AM)seedy Wrote: »speaking of VAGUE DOUBTS though, who exactly's doing the same as Akumu? I glanced over your reads in case it was obvious and you'd just go "look at my reads seedy god" but everyone you're suspicious of has been vocal enough for my tastes? are there some specific instances where they were like "LYNCH [x] *drops voice* but also I feel unsure about some of the people...currently voting..."
oh hey btw pala you never answered this afaik...
anyways here's examples of garuru being wish-washy
(03-31-2014, 07:33 AM)Garuru Wrote: »seedy probably needs to chill because at this point she's pretty much tunneling. Also maybe Akumu doesn't want to answer your questions because they're buried in huge textwalls. (not saying Akumu is okay for dodging questions, I'm just playing the devil's advocate here, and saying that if he doesn't want to answer your questions, asking more questions probably isn't going to help? Also, there's been a lot of Akumu focus and little focus on other people.) to me akumu seems kiiind of a little better for your intense focus on him? still vaguely scum but his responses make sense to me, if i were in his shoes i would probably do the same, because gosh textwalls against you are intimidating."*defends akumu and says I shouldn't post at him* oh but I'd still be willing to lynch akumu maybe in the future sometime I guess"
(03-30-2014, 09:51 PM)seedy Wrote: »(03-29-2014, 10:43 PM)Garuru Wrote: »Still really annoyed by people pushing very hard for an eberron lynch, but I will admit he does look kind of scummy right now, from kind of flip-flopping between convictions. My vibe is telling me that he's town, trying his best to cover for his early mistakes. I feel like everyone pushing for eberron is trying too hard to have a lynch today, though whether it's a mislynch or an information lynch probably depends on the person voting. Honestly, eberron is the ULTRA PRIME #1 info lynch, because of the ridiculous number of people attacking or supporting him, so even then, there's not much to go on, at least until Eberron flips, if he does get lynched/killed.
(03-30-2014, 07:22 PM)Dragon Fogel Wrote: »eberron - 2 (Sotek, Granolaman)
'everyone'
I mean, I'm sure that there are/were people advocating it who aren't voting...but the only people you've actually mentioned is a crowd of 2.
I mentioned one thing about what garuru said here already but it's honestly sooo bad it's so bad
it's so very hard to take something away from this that garuru can't go back on later. does garuru support eberron's lynch or not? does he think people on it are scum or just misguided? does he have any specific concerns about anyone on the wagon? WE JUST DON'T KNOW
vote: garuru
I do agree with dini's scum feelings pretty much
...including...solaris...sorry solaris......
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Dragon Fogel - 04-09-2014
Garuru does not expect to be able to post for a few (real-time) days due to personal reasons.
Also, Chwoka has requested replacement, but as we know that's been tricky for this game. However, Coldblooded will be available to replace in a week or so, and I've asked Chwoka to try and stick it out until then if possible. He may be replaced sooner if I can actually find people, though.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Mirdini - 04-10-2014
Bigro n' Chwoka replacing out makes me less happy with their slots as well since well replacements do often turn out to be scum who couldn't handle the pressure
less so for Chwoka because he actually did things while being very obviously just not up for the kind of game this (and most 'straight' mafias) happen[s] to be.
Which makes a theoretical scum!Solaris going after Bigro interesting because it could either be them betting it's an easy town lurker/replacement lynch or them turbobussing a scum teammate
options!
Garuru bailing on the thread is inconvenient - while I certainly understand RL reasons for not being able to post it's
well as I said inconvenient innit
Hey (active) people who haven't voiced their thoughts on 'em - what do you think about Garuru, Solaris, Palamedes, possibly donut? (Looking at Schazer, Akumu, Agent, Gnauga, Sotek)
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Nova - 04-10-2014
Eghhh I don't agree with suspecting somebody just for replacing, there are so many things that could be and it depends on the person and their mood too
I know this wasn't aimed at me but THOUGHTS ANYWAY HER WE GO
Gar looked fine when he was posting but looks less fine in retrospect as I admit a lot of it is inconsequential. And he dropped off a lil bit later on too so. I have been ok with a Solaris lynch for some time now and I am only getting more ok with it. Can't get a good read on Palamedes, but shiftiness is not townliness and so I am leaning scum on him. And I... still don't know what donut's deal is. Frick.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 2: The Invisible Man - Schazer - 04-10-2014
Rereading time, Vote Donut for now and I'll give said comestible the question:
You said in #177 that you found Seedy needling Slorange a thing to Probably Be Looked At. I asked you who of the two you wanted lynched, but you just said "yeah I mean I'd like a lynch" and didn't commit to who of the two. Would you want one of them dead right now? And who would you pursue if they flipped town? What if they flipped scum?
Bonus:
(03-28-2014, 01:10 AM)Granolaman Wrote: »Alt theory: Someone in scum is really afraid of this game drying up.
*ugly laughter*
(Granola dear if it's any consolation I do feel a little bit bad now)
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Dalmationer - 04-10-2014
@Mirdini.
Garuru's almost as quiet as me! I guess they are bewildered and out of their depth too? Perhaps we can start a club.
Solaris has mostly popped up with like theories on "WHAT IT MEAN???", I think. I guess they're keeping a low profile? WHO KNOWS! (it's not me.)
Pala is quiet like a fox but when they do post it has jargon in it that I don't understand. Jargon makes me suspicious. What are you obfuscating, HMMM? I bet it's something like knowing what they're doing.
Donut explained some terminology which is good in my books! Also they are nearly silent too. That's okay though, because us quiet people got to stick together.
I am totally for making a quiet club let's do it.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Dragon Fogel - 04-10-2014
On The Seventh Day, Votals Rested
bigro - 1 (Solaris)
Nova - 1 (icanhasdonuts)
Truegreen - 1 (Slorange)
Solaris - 1 (Sotek)
Garuru - 2 (Mirdini, Seedy)
eberron - 1 (Akumu)
icanhasdonuts - 1 (Schazer)
With 19 players alive, it takes 10 to lynch and five to soft-lynch. Deadline is Saturday, April 12 at 11:59 PM Mountain Time.
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Palamedes - 04-10-2014
Damn, feel free to call me out on my jargon and I'll do my best to explain myself better.
Nova you hurt my feelings.
Kind of strange reads overall from both of you? They're all pretty non-commital/unexplained (also I don't get why so few people are being so vague wrt their scumreads.
Slorange's posts are slightly better but it does miff me a little that he only started listening when Mirdini agreed. Schazer looks slightly better too as of her last post.
Still fine killing Solaris, feel like several people are hiding now that they're out of the spotlight/were called out on something, and could get behind a Garuru lynch (but not a donut one as of yet).
RE: Murder By The Book - Day 3: The Book of Revelation - Palamedes - 04-10-2014
Oh hey I'm pretty sure I had a Vote: Solaris